本文選題：灰靶理論 + 動態(tài)評價方法�。� 參考：《系統(tǒng)科學(xué)與數(shù)學(xué)》2017年01期

【摘要】：為了比較多個系統(tǒng)在不同時刻的發(fā)展水平和某一段時間的動態(tài)累積水平,需要進行動態(tài)評價.傳統(tǒng)灰靶理論方法無法比較多個系統(tǒng)在某一時間段各個時刻和總體的發(fā)展水平,只考慮各評價指標值的差異程度(現(xiàn)狀),不考慮指標值增長程度.將二維數(shù)據(jù)加入時序數(shù)據(jù)擴展為三維數(shù)據(jù),提出基于灰靶理論的動態(tài)評價方法,該方法既可以得到各評價對象(方案)好壞程度的評價值及排序結(jié)果,也可以得到各評價對象(方案)增長程度的評價值及排序結(jié)果,還可以得到同時考慮各評價對象指標值差異程度和增長程度的綜合評價值.既可以得到各評價對象(方案)各時刻的綜合評價值及排序,也可以得到各評價對象在某個時間段內(nèi)總體的評價值和排序結(jié)果.基于靶心度可以進行模式識別、分級和選優(yōu).基于貢獻度分析,可以分析各指標對模式靶心度的影響程度,從而找到關(guān)鍵影響因素.最后用一個實例說明本研究實際應(yīng)用上的有效性.該方法給動態(tài)評價提供了思路,是綜合評價方法研究的有益補充,可以利用該方法進行應(yīng)用研究.
[Abstract]:In order to compare the development level of multiple systems at different times and the dynamic accumulation level of a certain period of time, dynamic evaluation is needed. The traditional grey target theory method can not compare the development level of multiple systems at each time and in a certain time, and only consider the difference degree of each evaluation index value (present situation, not the increase degree of index value). A dynamic evaluation method based on grey target theory is proposed by extending two-dimensional data into 3D data. The method can not only get the evaluation value and ranking result of each evaluation object (scheme). The evaluation value and ranking result of the increasing degree of each evaluation object (program) can also be obtained, and the comprehensive evaluation value can also be obtained considering the difference of index value and the growth degree of each evaluation object. Not only can the comprehensive evaluation value and ranking of each evaluation object (scheme) be obtained at each time, but also the overall evaluation value and ranking result of each evaluation object in a certain time period can be obtained. Pattern recognition, classification and optimization can be performed based on target center. Based on the analysis of contribution degree, the influence of each index on the target center of the model can be analyzed, and the key influencing factors can be found. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of this study in practical application. This method provides a train of thought for dynamic evaluation and is a useful supplement to the study of comprehensive evaluation method, which can be used for application research.
【作者單位】： 福州大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與管理學(xué)院;中國科學(xué)院科技政策與管理科學(xué)研究所;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(71403055) 中國博士后科學(xué)基金(2015M570155,2015M571134,2016T90140) 福建省高等學(xué)校新世紀優(yōu)秀人才支持計劃資助 國家留學(xué)基金資助課題
【分類號】：F124.3;N941.5

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