本文選題：TPP + 經(jīng)濟(jì)格局��； 參考：《安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定(TPP)的前身是2005由新加坡,文萊,智利和新西蘭四國提出的跨太平洋戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定(P4)。2009年美國高調(diào)宣布加入TPP,并提出要把TPP建造成包含所有APEC成員的高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)高規(guī)格的自貿(mào)協(xié)定。隨后由于美國的加入并主導(dǎo),TPP在國際社會引起高度關(guān)注,TPP的成員迅速擴(kuò)大,目前共有10個成員國以及日本和加拿大兩個正在參與談判的國家。TPP的成員橫跨整個亞太地區(qū),它是美國“亞太再平衡”戰(zhàn)略的重要一環(huán),遏制中國在亞太地區(qū)的意圖十分明顯。 亞太地區(qū)近二十年來經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅猛,中國的崛起,亞洲四小龍,新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體等為亞太地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供了強(qiáng)大的動力。亞太地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系著整個世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的走向和發(fā)展。亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)格局主要表現(xiàn)為中美兩個大國之間經(jīng)濟(jì)相互抗衡與依賴的局面和正在迅速發(fā)展的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)組織競爭兩個方面。本文在描述亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)格局中美兩國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r時,主要從GDP,對外直接投資,進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易三大方面來進(jìn)行比較。此外還主要介紹中美兩國同亞太地區(qū)比較有影響力的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。在亞太地區(qū)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)組織的發(fā)展方面,主要介紹了比較有影響力的絕大部分由中國和美國兩個國家參與的經(jīng)濟(jì)組織和自貿(mào)區(qū),亞太經(jīng)合組織(APEC),東盟,東盟-中國,中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū),北美自貿(mào)區(qū),10+6峰會。 TPP作為目前最具影響力的亞太地區(qū)的一個自貿(mào)協(xié)定,又由于世界第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體日本已經(jīng)加入談判,因此TPP的進(jìn)展會影響亞太地區(qū)現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟(jì)格局。本文利用如今廣泛被應(yīng)用到區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化研究的一般均衡模型的全球貿(mào)易模型GTAP對TPP將怎樣影響相關(guān)亞太國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。模擬了兩種情形：(1)美國加入TPP；(2)日本和美國均加入TPP。模擬結(jié)果顯示,加入TPP的成員國在福利和貿(mào)易條件方面均得到改善,而非TPP成員國的國家經(jīng)濟(jì)將遭受損失。對于我國來說,日本和美國均加入TPP對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的負(fù)面影響更大,GDP將減少近27%,我國具有傳統(tǒng)比較優(yōu)勢的如農(nóng)業(yè),紡織業(yè)等將受到很大沖擊�，F(xiàn)如今日本已加入TPP談判,一旦談判成功,它將極大影響中美兩國在亞太地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)和貿(mào)易市場,且會對其他相關(guān)的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)組織產(chǎn)生正面,負(fù)面和雙重影響。因此,TPP將會影響亞太地區(qū)的現(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟(jì)格局�；谏鲜銮闆r,我國應(yīng)該提前做好各種預(yù)案,以積極的心態(tài)迎接TPP的挑戰(zhàn),不能硬碰硬,而應(yīng)該快速推進(jìn)自身的自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:The predecessor of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) was 2005 by Singapore, Brunei, In 2009, the United States announced its high profile entry into the TPP and proposed to build the TPP into a high standard free-trade agreement with all APEC members. As a result of the United States joining and leading the TPP, the rapid expansion of its membership in the international community has led to a total of 10 member States, as well as two negotiating countries, Japan and Canada, which are participating in the negotiations. The membership of the TPP spans the entire Asia-Pacific region. It is an important part of America's Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, and its intention to contain China in the Asia-Pacific region is obvious. The rapid economic development of the Asia-Pacific region in the past two decades, the rise of China, the four little dragons in Asia and the emerging economies have provided a strong impetus for economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. The economic development of the Asia-Pacific region is related to the trend and development of the whole world economy. The economic pattern in Asia and the Pacific is characterized by the economic competition and dependence between China and the United States and the competition between the rapidly developing regional economic organizations. This paper describes the economic development of China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly from the three aspects of GDP, foreign direct investment and import and export trade. In addition, it mainly introduces the development of economic relations between China and the United States and the more influential economies in the Asia-Pacific region. In terms of the development of regional economic organizations in the Asia-Pacific region, they mainly introduced the most influential economic organizations and free trade zones in which China and the United States participate, APEC, ASEAN, and ASEAN-China. China, Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone, North America Free Trade Zone 10 6 Summit. TPP is one of the most influential free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region, and because Japan, the world's third largest economy, has joined the negotiations, the progress of the TPP will affect the existing economic situation in the Asia-Pacific region. In this paper, the global trade model GTAP, which is widely used in the study of regional economic integration, is used to analyze how TPP will affect the economies of relevant Asia-Pacific countries. Two scenarios were simulated: 1) the United States joined TPP2) Japan and the United States joined TPP2. The simulation results show that the members that join the TPP have improved in terms of welfare and terms of trade, while the economies of the non-members of the TPP will suffer losses. For our country, both Japan and the United States will have a great negative impact on our economy after joining TPP. The traditional comparative advantage of our country, such as agriculture and textile industry, will be greatly affected. Now that Japan has joined the TPP negotiations, if successful, it will greatly affect the economic and trade markets of China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, and will have a positive, negative and dual impact on other relevant regional economic organizations. So the TPP will affect the existing economic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. Based on the above situation, our country should make all kinds of plans in advance to meet the challenge of TPP with a positive attitude, and should push forward the construction of its own free trade zone quickly.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F114.46

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 盛斌;;美國視角下的亞太區(qū)域一體化新戰(zhàn)略與中國的對策選擇——透視“泛太平洋戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)議”的發(fā)展[J];南開學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)版);2010年04期

2 鄭芳;;跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定與其它區(qū)域性組織的比較研究[J];山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會科學(xué)版);2012年02期

3 余楠;;當(dāng)前國內(nèi)TPP研究述評[J];上海海關(guān)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2012年03期

4 宋靜;;美國因素影響下的亞太、東亞合作機(jī)制之爭[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治論壇;2011年01期

5 江瑞平;于瀟瀟;;恢復(fù)邦交后的中日經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系:發(fā)展、轉(zhuǎn)型與前景[J];日本學(xué)刊;2012年05期

6 谷源洋;;東亞區(qū)域合作概論與中日戰(zhàn)略考慮[J];亞非縱橫;2009年01期

7 劉晨陽;;2010年后的APEC進(jìn)程:格局之變與中國的策略選擇[J];亞太經(jīng)濟(jì);2011年03期

8 曹海峰;;中日韓合作與東亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化關(guān)系研究[J];中國商界(下半月);2010年07期

9 田海;;TPP背景下中國的選擇策略思考—基于與APEC比較的分析[J];亞太經(jīng)濟(jì);2012年04期

10 全毅;;TPP對東亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作的影響:中美對話語權(quán)的爭奪[J];亞太經(jīng)濟(jì);2012年05期

，

本文編號：1832339