本文選題：固定資產(chǎn)投資 + 投資率��； 參考：《華南理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總體上保持了高速增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)，這其中，固定資產(chǎn)投資作為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要推動(dòng)力，發(fā)揮了重要作用。但伴隨著固定資產(chǎn)投資的快速增長(zhǎng)，投資占比不斷攀升，逐漸帶來(lái)了投資效益下滑、通貨膨脹高企、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)失調(diào)等一系列問(wèn)題�；谶@一情況，結(jié)合我國(guó)發(fā)展的階段性特征和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)，構(gòu)建一個(gè)適度的固定資產(chǎn)投資率區(qū)間，對(duì)于政府制定宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控政策具有重要意義。 本文考慮固定資產(chǎn)投資作用效果的時(shí)滯性，首先運(yùn)用計(jì)量學(xué)方法定量測(cè)算了固定資產(chǎn)投資與其效應(yīng)兩者之間的滯后關(guān)系。然后，基于兩者滯后關(guān)系構(gòu)建了相關(guān)模型測(cè)算固定資產(chǎn)投資率的適度區(qū)間。論文認(rèn)為，適度的固定資產(chǎn)投資率應(yīng)使經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)保持增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)的同時(shí)將通貨膨脹率控制在可承受范圍內(nèi)，且保證一定的投資效益。具體來(lái)說(shuō)，第一，固定資產(chǎn)投資率最低應(yīng)該保證再生產(chǎn)的順利進(jìn)行，即從當(dāng)年所創(chuàng)造的生產(chǎn)總值中拿出的固定資產(chǎn)投資比例至少能夠維持不低于上一年的生產(chǎn)能力，使得整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)呈增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)；第二，隨著固定資產(chǎn)投資率的不斷提高，投資效益最終會(huì)逐漸降低，當(dāng)?shù)陀谀硞�(gè)警戒值時(shí)，固定資產(chǎn)投資的低回報(bào)率會(huì)增加金融系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因而固定資產(chǎn)投資率不能高于使投資效益低于上述警戒值的水平；第三，固定資產(chǎn)投資的過(guò)快增長(zhǎng)會(huì)推高通貨膨脹，因而固定資產(chǎn)投資的增長(zhǎng)至少應(yīng)保證將通貨膨脹率控制在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展可承受范圍內(nèi)。 通過(guò)相關(guān)分析，論文得出以下結(jié)論：固定資產(chǎn)投資對(duì)GDP的影響存在滯后性，滯后期大約為1年，基于此，現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資率的適度區(qū)間為27.94%-45.30%，固定資產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)率不宜超過(guò)24.58%。 相比于其它國(guó)家，我國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資率的適度區(qū)間明顯偏高，，本文對(duì)結(jié)論做了相應(yīng)的解釋，同時(shí)就如何提高固定資產(chǎn)投資效益，最終逐步降低固定資產(chǎn)投資率提出了相關(guān)意見(jiàn)和建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained a rapid growth trend, in which fixed asset investment, as the main driving force of economic growth, has played an important role. However, with the rapid growth of fixed asset investment, the proportion of investment is rising, which brings a series of problems, such as the decline of investment efficiency, high inflation, economic structure imbalance and so on. Based on this situation, it is of great significance for the government to formulate macroeconomic control policies by constructing a moderate fixed asset investment rate interval in combination with the stage characteristics of China's development and the target of economic growth. In this paper, the lag relation between fixed asset investment and its effect is calculated quantitatively by means of metrology. Then, based on the lag relationship, the appropriate interval of fixed assets investment rate is established. The paper holds that the moderate investment rate of fixed assets should keep the economic system growing while keeping the inflation rate within the range of affordability and ensuring certain investment benefit. Specifically, first, the minimum investment rate in fixed assets should ensure the smooth progress of reproduction, that is, the proportion of fixed assets investment from the GDP created that year can at least be maintained at least as low as the production capacity of the previous year. It makes the whole economic system grow; second, with the rate of fixed assets investment increasing, the investment efficiency will eventually decrease gradually. When the value is lower than a certain warning value, the low return rate of fixed assets investment will increase the risk of the financial system. Therefore, the rate of investment in fixed assets cannot be higher than the level at which the investment returns are lower than the warning value mentioned above; third, the excessive growth of investment in fixed assets will push up inflation. Therefore, the growth of fixed asset investment should at least ensure that inflation rate is kept within the range of economic development. Through correlation analysis, the paper draws the following conclusions: fixed asset investment has a lag effect on GDP, the lag period is about one year, based on this, At present, the moderate range of fixed assets investment rate in China is 27.94-45.30. The growth rate of fixed assets investment should not exceed 24.58%. Compared with other countries, the moderate range of fixed asset investment rate in China is obviously higher. This paper makes a corresponding explanation to the conclusion, and at the same time, how to improve the investment efficiency of fixed assets. Finally, the investment rate of fixed assets is gradually reduced.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124

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