本文選題：城市化 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展　； 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文首先介紹城市化與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的理論內(nèi)涵,以此來多角度地選取指標(biāo),從而建立城市化與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的耦合指標(biāo)體系。運(yùn)用熵權(quán)法來確定各個(gè)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,分別計(jì)算城市化與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展兩個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的綜合發(fā)展指數(shù),對遼寧省14市進(jìn)行城市化水平和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的聚類分析。通過耦合協(xié)調(diào)模型計(jì)算14市從2005年到2014年的城市化與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度。依據(jù)耦合協(xié)調(diào)分類級別,分別對14市進(jìn)行城市化水平、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和耦合協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系的分析與評價(jià),得出各地市在這三方面的總體發(fā)展情況和變化趨勢,再運(yùn)用灰色預(yù)測模型對14市在2015年的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度進(jìn)行預(yù)測。然后運(yùn)用單一指標(biāo)法對遼寧省際數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)計(jì)量分析,綜合對比從2005年到2014年熵權(quán)法計(jì)算得到的各指標(biāo)權(quán)重,得出非農(nóng)從業(yè)人口比重在城市化子系統(tǒng)中綜合權(quán)重最大,人均GDP在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展子系統(tǒng)中綜合權(quán)重最大。因此選擇非農(nóng)從業(yè)人口比重和人均GDP分別代表城市化和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,來進(jìn)行遼寧省城市化與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系研究。運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、誤差修正模型、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)和脈沖響應(yīng)分析等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方法,得出遼寧省城市化與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在長期均衡關(guān)系,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對城市化的影響在短期就能體現(xiàn),并且在滯后期為2-3年時(shí)最明顯,但城市化對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響在短期內(nèi)無法體現(xiàn),影響作用要在一個(gè)超過10年的周期后才能體現(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:This paper first introduces the theoretical connotation of urbanization and economic development, and then selects indicators from many angles to establish a coupling index system between urbanization and economic development. The weight of each index is determined by using entropy weight method. The comprehensive development index of two subsystems of urbanization and economic development is calculated, and the urbanization level and economic development level of 14 cities in Liaoning Province are analyzed by cluster analysis. The coupling coordination degree between urbanization and economic development in 14 cities from 2005 to 2014 is calculated by coupling coordination model. According to the classification level of coupling coordination, the urbanization level, economic development level and coupling coordination relationship of 14 cities are analyzed and evaluated respectively, and the overall development situation and change trend of each city in these three aspects are obtained. Then the grey prediction model is used to predict the coupling coordination degree of 14 cities in 2015. Then the single index method is used to carry on the dynamic econometric analysis to the inter-provincial data, the comprehensive comparison each index weight calculated from 2005 to 2014 by entropy weight method, draws the conclusion that the proportion of non-agricultural working population is the most important in the urbanization subsystem. Per capita GDP in the economic development subsystem the largest comprehensive weight. Therefore, the proportion of non-agricultural employed population and the per capita GDP represent urbanization and economic development, respectively, to study the relationship between urbanization and economic development in Liaoning Province. By using the econometric methods such as cointegration test, error correction model, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis, it is concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization and economic development in Liaoning Province. The impact of economic development on urbanization can be reflected in the short term, and is the most obvious when the lag is 2-3 years, but the impact of urbanization on economic development cannot be reflected in the short term, and the effect can only be reflected after a period of more than 10 years.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F299.27

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