本文選題：古德溫模型　切入點(diǎn)：捕食者模型　出處：《社會科學(xué)研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：依次選擇中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、中國城鎮(zhèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)、上海和廣東等地區(qū)工資份額、就業(yè)率在1978-2014年的數(shù)據(jù)檢驗(yàn)古德溫周期,結(jié)果表明,在此期間,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)某些時段呈現(xiàn)出就業(yè)率和工資占比此消彼長現(xiàn)象,而在城鎮(zhèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)中這一表現(xiàn)更為顯著,上海和廣東的個例也顯示這種現(xiàn)象顯著存在,從而驗(yàn)證了本文的初始假設(shè):理論上而言,在市場化程度較高的時間階段和地區(qū),資本-勞動的雇傭越是普遍,古德溫周期的動力機(jī)制表現(xiàn)也應(yīng)該更為明顯,古德溫周期的顯著程度構(gòu)成對市場化程度的另一種解答。同樣有意義也有待進(jìn)一步研究的問題在于,在某些時段中,工資占比和就業(yè)率并未出現(xiàn)明顯的此消彼長態(tài)勢,甚至呈現(xiàn)同步增長現(xiàn)象。從古德溫模型本身看,就業(yè)率與工資占比的波動性和振幅的差異性,正是需要對長時段內(nèi)影響宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的其他因素進(jìn)行考究的方面。
[Abstract]:In turn, China's macro-economy, China's urban economy, Shanghai and Guangdong were selected to test the Goodwin cycle in 1978-2014. The results show that, during this period, In some periods of the macro-economy, the employment rate and the proportion of wages have been increasing and decreasing, but in the urban economy, this phenomenon is even more obvious. The examples of Shanghai and Guangdong also show that this phenomenon exists significantly. Therefore, the initial hypothesis of this paper is that, in theory, the more common the employment of capital-labor is, the more obvious the dynamic mechanism of Goodwin cycle should be in the time and region with a high degree of marketization. The significance of the Goodwin cycle constitutes another answer to the degree of marketization. Equally significant and subject to further study is the fact that, in some periods of time, the share of wages and the employment rate do not show a significant downward trend. From the Goodwin model itself, the volatility and amplitude difference between employment rate and wage ratio is the aspect that needs to be studied on the other factors that influence the macro economy in a long period of time.
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本文編號：1676108