發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-09 21:32

  本文選題：財(cái)政政策　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文從理論推導(dǎo)和實(shí)證研究?jī)煞N角度就財(cái)政政策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用機(jī)制進(jìn)行了闡述和分析。在理論方面主要引用了瓦格納法則、凱恩斯學(xué)派經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論與財(cái)政政策、內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)理論中的財(cái)政政策和外生增長(zhǎng)理論中的財(cái)政政策，對(duì)財(cái)政政策與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)相互作用關(guān)系進(jìn)行了偏重定性的推導(dǎo)。繼而又借助VAR模型和MS-AR模型，對(duì)GDP、財(cái)政支出、CPI和M2從1996年第一季度到2013年第四季度的季度同比增長(zhǎng)率數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。首先，對(duì)GDP和財(cái)政支出的增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)行了數(shù)據(jù)描述并分析了其發(fā)展規(guī)律和發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。然后，驗(yàn)證了所選擇的變量是否具備構(gòu)建VAR模型的條件，在符合構(gòu)可能性后，，通過(guò)建立VAR模型進(jìn)行了脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析、方差分解研究和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)以剖析變量之間的相互作用關(guān)系，重點(diǎn)考察了財(cái)政支出對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用機(jī)制。而后，根據(jù)MS-AR模型劃分出了高波動(dòng)區(qū)制和低波動(dòng)區(qū)制，探討了不同區(qū)制下財(cái)政政策的有效性。最后在兩區(qū)制下分別進(jìn)行最小二乘回歸來(lái)觀測(cè)財(cái)政支出對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響系數(shù)，并結(jié)合我國(guó)實(shí)際情況探討了財(cái)政政策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用機(jī)制。 從中得出“瓦格納法則”在我國(guó)的是成立的，即當(dāng)國(guó)民收入增長(zhǎng)時(shí)，財(cái)政支出也會(huì)隨之增長(zhǎng)；短期內(nèi)，積極的財(cái)政政策可以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)；而長(zhǎng)期的積極財(cái)政政策刺激效果不明顯，還會(huì)導(dǎo)致一定程度上的通貨膨脹；在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)波動(dòng)率較高的階段適合使用積極的財(cái)政政策，但要注意不宜長(zhǎng)期使用，在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)波動(dòng)率較低的階段應(yīng)使用穩(wěn)健性財(cái)政政策等結(jié)論。 建議在財(cái)政政策實(shí)施過(guò)程中要保持政府支出與國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值在一定的比例上，掌握好擴(kuò)張性和穩(wěn)健性財(cái)政政策之間轉(zhuǎn)化的時(shí)機(jī)，必要時(shí)相配合以貨幣政策來(lái)熨平財(cái)政政策的負(fù)面效應(yīng)。同時(shí)應(yīng)該注意財(cái)政收支的多寡并不能完整的代表財(cái)政政策，要對(duì)財(cái)政政策進(jìn)行全方位多角度的剖析，預(yù)算外和體制外收支最好也能被納入考慮范疇。還可以輔助以減輕稅負(fù)、加強(qiáng)推動(dòng)稅制的改革的力度、調(diào)整轉(zhuǎn)移支付方向、改善政府財(cái)政支出結(jié)構(gòu)、提高中低收入消費(fèi)者的可支配收入等手段來(lái)完善我國(guó)財(cái)政政策體系，保持我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)。
[Abstract]:This paper expounds and analyzes the mechanism of fiscal policy acting on economic growth from two angles of theoretical derivation and empirical research. In theory, it mainly cites Wagner's law, Keynesian economic growth theory and fiscal policy. The fiscal policy in the endogenous growth theory and the fiscal policy in the exogenous growth theory deduce the relationship between the fiscal policy and the economic growth, and then with the help of the VAR model and the MS-AR model, the relationship between the fiscal policy and the economic growth is analyzed. This paper makes an empirical study on the quarterly year-on-year growth rate of GDP, fiscal expenditure CPI and M2 from in the first quarter of 1996 to in the fourth quarter of 2013. First of all, This paper describes the growth of GDP and fiscal expenditure and analyzes its development law and trend. Then, it verifies whether the selected variables have the conditions to construct the VAR model, and after the possibility of conformance, By establishing the VAR model, the impulse response function analysis, variance decomposition and Granger causality test are carried out to analyze the interaction between variables, and the mechanism of fiscal expenditure on economic growth is investigated. According to the MS-AR model, the high volatility zone system and the low fluctuation zone system are divided, and the effectiveness of the fiscal policy under the different region system is discussed. Finally, the least square regression is carried out to observe the influence coefficient of the fiscal expenditure on the economic growth under the two-region system. Combined with the actual situation in China, this paper discusses the mechanism of fiscal policy on economic growth. It is concluded that "Wagner's rule" is established in our country, that is, when national income increases, fiscal expenditure will also increase, in the short term, positive fiscal policies can promote economic growth. But the long-term positive fiscal policy stimulus effect is not obvious, will also cause the certain degree of inflation; in our country economic growth fluctuation rate high stage suitable to use the positive fiscal policy, but should pay attention not to use in the long term. In the stage of low fluctuation rate of economic growth, we should use prudent fiscal policy and other conclusions. It is suggested that in the process of implementing the fiscal policy, we should maintain a certain proportion of government expenditure and gross national product, and grasp the opportunity to transform between expansionary and prudent fiscal policies. When necessary, we should coordinate with monetary policy to iron out the negative effects of fiscal policy. At the same time, we should pay attention to the amount of fiscal revenues and expenditures that do not fully represent fiscal policy. We should carry out a comprehensive and multi-angle analysis of fiscal policy. Extra-budgetary and out-of-system revenues and expenditures are also best taken into account. They can also be supplemented to reduce the tax burden, strengthen the reform of the tax system, adjust the direction of transfer payments, and improve the structure of the government's fiscal expenditure. Improve the disposable income of middle and low income consumers to improve our fiscal policy system and maintain the steady growth of our economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F812;F124

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本文編號(hào)：1590309