本文關(guān)鍵詞： 潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率 結(jié)構(gòu)分解 隨機(jī)前沿分析法　出處：《西北大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長呈現(xiàn)新常態(tài),GDP增長率從高速增長轉(zhuǎn)為中高速增長,由2012年的12.1%下降到2016年的6.7%,并且仍有可能繼續(xù)下降。按照經(jīng)濟(jì)增長周期理論,實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的變化有兩個(gè)原因,一是由潛在增長率變化引起,二是由實(shí)際增長率對潛在增長率的偏離引起。潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率意味著資源最優(yōu)配置下的最大產(chǎn)出能力,決定于資本、勞動(dòng)力等供給面的因素;而實(shí)際增長率對潛在增長率的偏離決定于投資、消費(fèi)等需求因素及其與供給面的協(xié)調(diào)程度。因此,對潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的測算可以清楚的判斷我國目前經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度下降的原因以及未來變化的趨勢。而對潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的結(jié)構(gòu)分解可以尋找經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的源泉與動(dòng)力,為今后選取相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策提供理論支撐。本文首先對潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的內(nèi)涵和影響因素進(jìn)行了理論分析,對潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的測算和結(jié)構(gòu)分解進(jìn)行了數(shù)理分析,并選取了 1990-2014年的省際面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。(1)采用時(shí)變彈性生產(chǎn)函數(shù)對潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率進(jìn)行測算:全國的潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率平均為9.88%,低于實(shí)際增長率0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn);三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率為4.79%、14.66%、9.62%,實(shí)際增長率對潛在增長率的偏離為-0.87%、-3.9%、0.05%;東部、中部、西部和東北地區(qū)的潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率為9.49%、10.26%、9.9%、10.36%,實(shí)際增長率對潛在增長率的偏離為-1.55%、0.21%、-0.18%、1.23%;表明中國經(jīng)濟(jì)目前面臨著產(chǎn)業(yè)以及區(qū)域間發(fā)展不協(xié)調(diào)的問題,產(chǎn)出缺口為負(fù)也表明市場需求不足,如果產(chǎn)出缺口進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大將導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)衰退。(2)利用隨機(jī)前沿分析法對影響潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的效率因素進(jìn)行了結(jié)構(gòu)分解,并且還對資本和勞動(dòng)力的要素投入進(jìn)行了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的分解。全要素生產(chǎn)率對潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的貢獻(xiàn)率為18.75%,其中技術(shù)進(jìn)步和配置效率的貢獻(xiàn)最大分別為9.55%、4.32%。要素投入對潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的貢獻(xiàn)為81.25%,說明對潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率影響最大的還是要素投入,尤其是第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的勞動(dòng)投入和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的資本投入對潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的貢獻(xiàn)率最大,分別為7.1%和33.7%。(3)在潛在增長率的結(jié)構(gòu)分解基礎(chǔ)上,預(yù)測我國2015-2020年的潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率平均為7.23%,表明經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入新常態(tài),未來我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長速度還將持續(xù)放緩,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動(dòng)力將由要素投入轉(zhuǎn)向效率提升方面。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economic growth is showing a new normal. The rate of GDP growth has changed from high to medium high speed, from 12.1% in 2012 to 6.7 in 2016, and is likely to continue to decline. According to the theory of economic growth cycle, There are two reasons for the change of the real economic growth rate, one is caused by the change of the potential growth rate, the other is caused by the deviation of the real growth rate from the potential growth rate. The potential economic growth rate means the maximum output capacity under the optimal allocation of resources. It depends on the supply side of capital and labor, while the deviation of real growth rate from potential growth rate depends on the demand factors such as investment, consumption and their coordination with supply side. The calculation of the potential economic growth rate can clearly judge the reasons for the decline of the current economic growth rate and the trend of future changes in China, and the structural decomposition of the potential economic growth rate can find the source and motive force of economic growth. In this paper, the connotation and influencing factors of the potential economic growth rate are analyzed theoretically, and the calculation and structure decomposition of the potential economic growth rate are analyzed. And selected from 1990 to 2014 inter-provincial panel data for empirical research. 1) the use of time-varying elastic production function to measure the potential economic growth rate: the national potential economic growth rate is 9.88 percent on average, 0.6 percentage points lower than the actual growth rate; The potential economic growth rate of the three industries is 4.79 and 14.66 and 9.62. The deviation of the actual growth rate from the potential growth rate is -0.87 and -3.9. The potential economic growth rate in the western and northeast regions is 9.490.26 and 9.90.36. the deviation of the real growth rate from the potential growth rate is -1.550.210.180.23.This indicates that the Chinese economy is currently facing problems of uncoordinated industrial and inter-regional development, and that the negative output gap also indicates insufficient market demand. If the output gap expands further, it will lead to a sustained recession.) the stochastic frontier analysis method is used to analyze the efficiency factors that affect the potential economic growth rate. The contribution rate of total factor productivity to potential economic growth rate is 18.75, in which the contribution of technological progress and allocation efficiency is 9.55 and 4.32 respectively. The contribution to the potential economic growth rate is 81.25, which shows that the factor input has the greatest impact on the potential economic growth rate. In particular, the labor input from the primary industry and the capital input from the tertiary industry contribute the most to the potential economic growth rate, which are 7.1% and 33.70.30 respectively) on the basis of the structural decomposition of the potential growth rate. The forecast of China's potential economic growth rate in 2015-2020 is 7.23, which indicates that the economic growth rate will continue to slow down in the future, and the power of economic growth will shift from factor input to efficiency improvement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F124.1

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