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基于GIS和BP的原州區(qū)空間貧困及其分異機制研究

發(fā)布時間:2018-02-07 15:16

  本文關鍵詞: 空間貧困 GIS BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡 分異機制 出處:《寧夏大學》2014年碩士論文 論文類型:學位論文


【摘要】:貧困是困惑人類發(fā)展的全球性難題,也是發(fā)展中國家實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展所面臨的嚴重挑戰(zhàn)之一,而貧困地區(qū)的發(fā)展是我國現(xiàn)階段全面建設小康社會進程中十分重要和緊迫的問題。 寧夏回族自治區(qū)是西部少數(shù)民族自治區(qū),貧困地區(qū)主要分布在中部干旱帶和南部山區(qū)(即寧夏六盤山集中連片特殊困難地區(qū)),該地區(qū)生態(tài)脆弱,土地瘠薄,常年干旱少雨,自然災害頻繁,水土流失嚴重,且人口、資源、環(huán)境三者嚴重失衡,同時又受到社會、經(jīng)濟、歷史等方面的制約,為貧困地區(qū)的發(fā)展和新階段的扶貧開發(fā)帶來了前所未有壓力。 文章以空間貧困及其相關理論為基礎,以原州區(qū)為研究對象,以行政村為基本單元,從自然、社會和經(jīng)濟三個方面,構建出一個包含有30個指標的空間貧困因素指標體系,選取2010到2013年四年的動態(tài)數(shù)據(jù)。首先采用Pearson相關分析進行致貧因素和消貧因素的區(qū)分,接著利用OLS回歸分析對各因素對貧困的影響程度進行量化,并且結合GIS和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡,對原州區(qū)各地理資本指數(shù)進行模擬分析,計算出各空間貧困指數(shù),并且利用GIS的可視化特點在圖上展示出其空間分布,揭示原州區(qū)空間貧困格局及其分異機制,為原州區(qū)的扶貧開發(fā)提供科學可靠的理論依據(jù),最終得到如下結論: (1)經(jīng)過Pearson相關分析以及OLS回歸分析,得出如下結論: Pearson相關分析得出,自然環(huán)境是影響原州區(qū)貧困的最主要因素,與此同時,社會環(huán)境加劇了這種貧困的發(fā)生;經(jīng)濟環(huán)境則是緩解和消除區(qū)域貧困的主要因素,結合OLS回歸估計分析,進一步量化每個因素對貧困的影響度。 (2)通過GIS的空間表達和基于BP的空間模擬得出如下結果: 自然致貧指數(shù)較高的村子主要分布在東北部和北部地區(qū),社會致貧指數(shù)較大的村子主要分布在西南部,經(jīng)濟消貧指數(shù)沒有明顯的分布特征,但總體呈上升趨勢。 結合之前的分析和研究,最后提出符合原州區(qū)區(qū)域特色的扶貧對策及建議: (1)在自然致貧指數(shù)高的地區(qū)要加強環(huán)境保護和水土流失治理,同時要加強生態(tài)環(huán)境建設和污染物的治理,以及基本農(nóng)田和飲水安全的建設。 (2)在社會環(huán)境調(diào)控中,實施生態(tài)移民扶貧工程,對于社會致貧指數(shù)較高的地區(qū),要提高基礎教育的水平,大力培養(yǎng)貧困人口的就業(yè)技能;同時也要加快醫(yī)療事業(yè)的發(fā)展和公共信息文化信息以及交通網(wǎng)絡的建設。 (3)原州區(qū)作為寧夏南部重點開發(fā)區(qū),要切實實施區(qū)域中心城市暨大縣城戰(zhàn)略。對于經(jīng)濟消貧指數(shù)較低的地區(qū),要整體加強科技培訓和推廣的力度,并發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)優(yōu)勢特色產(chǎn)業(yè)。
[Abstract]:Poverty is a global problem puzzling human development, and it is also one of the serious challenges for developing countries to realize sustainable development. However, the development of poverty-stricken areas is an important and urgent problem in the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way in our country at the present stage. The Ningxia Hui Autonomous region is a western ethnic minority autonomous region, and the poverty-stricken areas are mainly distributed in the central arid zone and the southern mountainous areas (that is, Ningxia Liupanshan concentrated and connected with special difficulties). The region is ecologically fragile, the land is barren, the perennial drought is low, and there is little rain. The frequent natural disasters, serious soil and water loss, and the imbalance of population, resources and environment, which are restricted by social, economic and historical aspects, have brought unprecedented pressure to the development of poverty-stricken areas and the development of poverty alleviation in the new stage. Based on spatial poverty and its related theories, taking Yuanzhou district as the research object and administrative village as the basic unit, this paper constructs an index system of spatial poverty factors including 30 indicators from the three aspects of nature, society and economy. The dynamic data of four years from 2010 to 2013 were selected. Firstly, Pearson correlation analysis was used to distinguish the poverty factors from the anti-poverty factors, and then the degree of influence of each factor on poverty was quantified by OLS regression analysis, and combined with GIS and BP neural network. Based on the simulation and analysis of the capital index in various parts of Yuanzhou district, the spatial poverty index is calculated, and the spatial distribution of the spatial poverty index is shown by using the visualization characteristics of GIS, which reveals the spatial poverty pattern and its differentiation mechanism in Yuanzhou district. To provide a scientific and reliable theoretical basis for poverty alleviation and development in Yuanzhou District, and finally get the following conclusions:. 1) by Pearson correlation analysis and OLS regression analysis, the conclusions are as follows:. Pearson correlation analysis shows that the natural environment is the most important factor affecting poverty in Yuanzhou district, and at the same time, the social environment exacerbates the occurrence of poverty, while the economic environment is the main factor to alleviate and eliminate regional poverty. Combined with OLS regression analysis, the impact of each factor on poverty is further quantified. 2) through the spatial expression of GIS and the spatial simulation based on BP, the following results are obtained:. The villages with higher natural poverty index are mainly distributed in the northeast and northern regions, while the villages with higher social poverty index are mainly distributed in the southwest. The economic poverty eradication index has no obvious distribution characteristics, but the overall trend is on the rise. Combining with the previous analysis and research, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for poverty alleviation in accordance with the regional characteristics of Yuanzhou District. 1) in areas with high natural poverty index, environmental protection and soil erosion control should be strengthened, and ecological environment construction and pollutant management, as well as the construction of basic farmland and drinking water safety should be strengthened. 2) in the social environment regulation and control, the implementation of the ecological migration poverty alleviation project, for areas with high social poverty index, it is necessary to improve the level of basic education, and vigorously develop the poor people's employment skills; At the same time, it is necessary to speed up the development of medical services and the construction of public information, cultural information and transportation networks. 3) as the key development zone of southern Ningxia, Yuanzhou district should implement the strategy of regional central city and big county city. For the region with low economic poverty eradication index, it is necessary to strengthen the training and popularization of science and technology as a whole, and to develop agricultural advantages and characteristic industries.
【學位授予單位】:寧夏大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2014
【分類號】:TP183;F126

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