本文關(guān)鍵詞：消費信貸對我國消費需求的拉動效應(yīng)研究　出處：《湖南師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 消費信貸 消費需求 流動性約束 拉動效應(yīng)

【摘要】：近年來,國際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的低迷對我國出口貿(mào)易造成了一定程度的沖擊,這種現(xiàn)狀表明了外部需求具有不穩(wěn)定性。2013年第十二屆全國人民代表大會一次會議提出,要堅持我國擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的長期經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略方針不動搖,并充分發(fā)揮消費在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的基礎(chǔ)性作用。消費信貸作為能夠擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需、拉動消費的有效手段,成為國家重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略措施。消費信貸在我國是以1999年央行發(fā)布《關(guān)于開展個人消費信貸的指導(dǎo)意見》為起點,近年來在政府轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式、促進(jìn)居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級、積極出臺鼓勵消費信貸政策等一系列因素的影響下得以快速發(fā)展。 本文以現(xiàn)代消費理論為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與消費信貸的特殊性,以理論分析為基礎(chǔ)、實證分析為重點,對我國消費信貸對消費需求的拉動效應(yīng)進(jìn)行全面分析檢驗。具體來說,從理論上進(jìn)行分析,消費信貸可以從五個方面對居民消費需求產(chǎn)生拉動效應(yīng)。其中包括借助于投資乘數(shù)與貨幣創(chuàng)造乘數(shù)的共同作用、改變居民的預(yù)算線、抑制大額剛性支出對居民當(dāng)期消費的約束、融通消費資金、轉(zhuǎn)變居民的消費觀念。實證分析作為本文的主要研究方法,主要對三個問題進(jìn)行實證檢驗。首先從總體上檢驗消費信貸對消費需求的拉動效應(yīng),檢驗結(jié)果表明：我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費需求同時對于收入以及消費信貸存在著“過渡性敏感”,消費信貸的發(fā)展會對消費需求產(chǎn)生一定的拉動效應(yīng)；然后,結(jié)合我國收入差距過大的特殊國情,本文研究不同收入水平下,消費信貸對于消費需求拉動效應(yīng)的差異性,檢驗結(jié)果表明：消費信貸主要對高收入群體的消費需求產(chǎn)生較強(qiáng)的拉動效應(yīng),而對于中等及偏上收入群體的消費需求會產(chǎn)生較為微弱的影響,本文認(rèn)為這是由于“擠出效應(yīng)”的存在而導(dǎo)致；最后,本文分析檢驗消費信貸對消費需求產(chǎn)生拉動效應(yīng)的作用途徑,檢驗結(jié)果表明：消費信貸主要通過增加居民當(dāng)期收入、緩解其面臨的流動性約束,拉動居民的住房以及耐用品的消費水平,而未對非耐用品消費產(chǎn)生顯著影響。 最后,本文基于前文的研究結(jié)論,對我國發(fā)展消費信貸提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the downturn of the international economic situation has caused a certain degree of impact on China's export trade. In 2013, the first session of the 12th National people's Congress proposed that China should adhere to the long-term economic development strategy of expanding domestic demand. And give full play to the basic role of consumption in economic development. Consumer credit as an effective means to expand domestic demand and stimulate consumption. Consumer credit has become an important economic strategic measure in our country. In recent years, the government has changed the mode of economic growth with the guidance issued by the central bank on 1999. Under the influence of a series of factors, such as promoting the optimization and upgrading of residents' consumption structure and actively introducing policies to encourage consumer credit, it can develop rapidly. This paper is based on modern consumption theory, combined with the particularity of China's economic development and consumer credit, on the basis of theoretical analysis, empirical analysis as the focus. This paper makes a comprehensive analysis and test on the pulling effect of consumer credit to consumer demand. Specifically, it analyzes the effect of consumer credit on consumption demand theoretically. Consumer credit can produce pull effect on consumer demand from five aspects, including changing the budget line of residents with the help of the combination of investment multiplier and currency creation multiplier. Restraining the large amount of rigid expenditure on the current consumption of residents, financing consumption funds, changing residents' consumption concept. Empirical analysis as the main research method of this paper. First of all, the paper examines the pull effect of consumer credit on consumer demand as a whole. The results show that the consumption demand of urban residents in China is "transitional sensitive" to income and consumer credit at the same time, and the development of consumer credit will have a certain pull effect on consumer demand; Then, combined with the special situation of the excessive income gap in China, this paper studies the difference of the effect of consumer credit on consumer demand under different income levels. The results show that consumer credit mainly has a strong pull effect on the consumption demand of the high-income group, while it has a weaker impact on the consumption demand of the middle and upper income groups. This paper argues that this is due to the existence of "extrusion effect". Finally, this paper analyzes the ways to test the effect of consumer credit on consumer demand. The test results show that consumer credit can alleviate the liquidity constraints mainly by increasing residents' current income. The consumption level of housing and durable goods is not significantly affected by the consumption of non-durable goods. Finally, based on the previous research conclusions, this paper puts forward policy recommendations for the development of consumer credit in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F126.1;F832.479

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