本文關鍵詞：哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展系統(tǒng)動力學模型構建及對策研究　出處：《東北林業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 低碳經(jīng)濟 二氧化碳排放 系統(tǒng)動力學

【摘要】：發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟為擺脫能源危機、緩解環(huán)境壓力開辟了一條新途徑,成為各國發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略共識。我國對低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展極為重視,已在全國范圍內(nèi)組織開展低碳省區(qū)和低碳城市試點建設工作。哈爾濱市近年來經(jīng)濟總產(chǎn)值穩(wěn)步提高,但是高耗能、高污染的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式已對生態(tài)環(huán)境造成了嚴重破壞,極大地制約了哈爾濱市的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此,如何減少以二氧化碳為主的溫室氣體排放、實現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排、發(fā)展低能耗、低污染、低排放的低碳經(jīng)濟,是哈爾濱市有待解決的緊迫問題。 本研究構建了哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展系統(tǒng)動力學模型,并模擬2005-2020年間哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況。本研究從系統(tǒng)科學的角度出發(fā),在明確了哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展目標的基礎之上,分析了哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,指出了現(xiàn)階段哈爾濱市經(jīng)濟方面、能源方面、碳排放方面存在的問題,探討了哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展主要影響因素。以系統(tǒng)動力學為研究方法,將哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展系統(tǒng)看作一個整體,確定系統(tǒng)邊界,研究了哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展系統(tǒng)高階次、多重反饋循環(huán)和高度非線性的因果反饋關系,構建系統(tǒng)動力學模型,模擬哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的運動規(guī)律與過程。在此基礎之上進行系統(tǒng)動態(tài)模擬,動態(tài)模擬結果表明,在保持現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)業(yè)結構、單位GDP科技投入、能源消費結構及居民低碳意識等不變的情況下,哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展“十二五”目標可以實現(xiàn)但中長期目標難以實現(xiàn),需對模型進行政策模擬以探究相應對策。 本研究對哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展系統(tǒng)動力學模型進行政策模擬,提出了有定量數(shù)據(jù)支持的低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對策建議。本研究基于模型初始狀態(tài)模擬結果,結合低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展目標調(diào)整模型參數(shù)值,對模型進行不同情境下的政策模擬,并對模擬結果進行對比分析,以定量數(shù)據(jù)為支撐,緊密聯(lián)系哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的實際情況,提出加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整、加大科技投入、調(diào)整能源消費結構、提高居民低碳意識、多因素綜合調(diào)整能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)哈爾濱市低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展目標。本文研究結果對于政府及相關機構具體規(guī)劃低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:The development of low-carbon economy has opened up a new way to shake off the energy crisis and relieve the environmental pressure, and has become the strategic consensus of the development of various countries. China attaches great importance to the development of low-carbon economy. The pilot construction of low-carbon provinces and low carbon cities has been organized and carried out nationwide. Harbin's economic output value has steadily increased in recent years, but the energy consumption is high. The high pollution economic development model has caused serious damage to the ecological environment, which has greatly restricted the sustainable development of Harbin. Therefore, how to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions mainly based on carbon dioxide, achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. Developing low-energy, low-pollution and low-emission low-carbon economy is an urgent problem to be solved in Harbin. This study constructs the system dynamics model of low-carbon economy development in Harbin, and simulates the development of low-carbon economy in Harbin from 2005 to 2020. This study starts from the point of view of system science. On the basis of defining the development goal of low-carbon economy in Harbin, this paper analyzes the present development situation of low-carbon economy in Harbin, and points out the existing problems in economic, energy and carbon emission in Harbin at this stage. This paper discusses the main factors affecting the development of low-carbon economy in Harbin. Taking the system dynamics as the research method, the development system of low-carbon economy in Harbin is regarded as a whole and the system boundary is determined. The high-order, multi-feedback cycle and highly nonlinear causal feedback relationship of Harbin low-carbon economic development system are studied, and the system dynamics model is constructed. Simulation of Harbin low-carbon economic development of the movement law and process. On the basis of the system dynamic simulation, the dynamic simulation results show that in the maintenance of the existing industrial structure, unit GDP science and technology investment. Under the situation of energy consumption structure and residents' low carbon consciousness, the 12th Five-Year Plan of low-carbon economic development in Harbin can be achieved, but it is difficult to achieve in the medium and long term. The policy simulation of the model is needed to explore the corresponding countermeasures. In this study, the policy simulation of Harbin low-carbon economic development system dynamics model is carried out, and the countermeasures and suggestions for low-carbon economy development supported by quantitative data are put forward. This study is based on the initial state simulation results of the model. Combined with the low carbon economic development goals to adjust the model parameters, the model under different scenarios of policy simulation, and the simulation results are compared and analyzed, with quantitative data as the support. In close connection with the actual situation of low-carbon economy development in Harbin, it is proposed to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, increase scientific and technological input, adjust energy consumption structure, and improve residents' low carbon awareness. Multi-factor comprehensive adjustment can realize the development goal of low-carbon economy in Harbin. The results of this paper can be used for reference for the government and related institutions to plan the development of low-carbon economy.
【學位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127;N941.3

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