【摘要】：由于工業(yè)化和城市化的快速發(fā)展，華北平原普遍發(fā)生了地面沉降。地面沉降已經(jīng)成為影響區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的主要環(huán)境問題。本論文以華北平原地面沉降典型區(qū)滄州地區(qū)為研究對(duì)象，系統(tǒng)分析了該地區(qū)的地面沉降成因機(jī)理，應(yīng)用地下水?dāng)?shù)值模型模擬了地下水動(dòng)力場(chǎng)在時(shí)、空方面的變化和發(fā)展，預(yù)測(cè)了該區(qū)地面沉降的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。 全面搜集并分析了研究區(qū)地面沉降相關(guān)環(huán)境地質(zhì)資料，從區(qū)域地質(zhì)環(huán)境、水文地質(zhì)條件入手，結(jié)合MapGIS空間分析方法，得出了滄州地區(qū)乃至整個(gè)華北平原的地面沉降與深層地下水開采之間的量化關(guān)系。隨后，選擇滄州地面沉降區(qū)的典型試驗(yàn)孔為研究對(duì)象，對(duì)粘性土體物理特征、土體壓縮變形規(guī)律及粘性土滲透特征進(jìn)行分析，進(jìn)而對(duì)滄州地區(qū)地面沉降成因機(jī)理進(jìn)行了研究。 根據(jù)區(qū)域地層結(jié)構(gòu)及粘性土滲透特征，，利用Processing Modflow軟件構(gòu)建了滄州地區(qū)地下水水流模型；根據(jù)地下水模型對(duì)地下水位進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，得到2020年兩種開采條件下第Ⅲ含水層的最大水位埋深分別為106.8m和101.2m；結(jié)合水位埋深與累計(jì)沉降量關(guān)系及地下水開采量與累計(jì)沉降量關(guān)系，建立回歸模型，從“點(diǎn)”上對(duì)滄州地區(qū)2020年地面沉降發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，在現(xiàn)狀開采下，兩種方程得到的最大累計(jì)沉降量分別為3002.7mm和3004.7mm；壓采條件下，兩種方程得到的最大累計(jì)沉降量分別為2590.2mm和2986.3mm。預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果表明，預(yù)測(cè)期內(nèi)，滄州市地面沉降中心仍然位于滄州市區(qū)，進(jìn)一步說明地下水開采與地面沉降的關(guān)系，為地面沉降綜合治理及預(yù)防提供了依據(jù)。 最后，選擇京滬高鐵滄州北段為研究區(qū)，從該區(qū)的地形、地貌、工程地質(zhì)等條件出發(fā)，結(jié)合綜合分析法、層次分析法，并應(yīng)用ArcGIS軟件構(gòu)建了地面沉降危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)模型，對(duì)該研究區(qū)的地面沉降危險(xiǎn)性進(jìn)行了分區(qū)評(píng)價(jià)，并提出了相應(yīng)的地面沉降防治措施，為城市規(guī)劃、建設(shè)及未來發(fā)展提供了基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:Due to the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, land subsidence occurred generally in the North China Plain. Land subsidence has become a major environmental problem affecting regional economic and social development. In this paper, Cangzhou area, a typical area of land subsidence in North China Plain, is taken as the research object, and the formation mechanism of land subsidence in this area is analyzed systematically. The variation and development of groundwater dynamic field in time and space are simulated by using the numerical model of groundwater. The development trend of land subsidence in this area is predicted. The related environmental geological data of land subsidence in the study area are collected and analyzed comprehensively, starting with the regional geological environment and hydrogeological conditions, combined with the spatial analysis method of MapGIS. The quantitative relationship between land subsidence and deep groundwater exploitation in Cangzhou and even the whole North China Plain is obtained. Then, the typical test holes in Cangzhou land subsidence area are selected as the research object, and the physical characteristics of cohesive soil, the law of soil compression and deformation and the seepage characteristics of cohesive soil are analyzed, and then the cause of formation of land subsidence in Cangzhou area is studied. According to the regional stratum structure and the seepage characteristics of clayey soil, the groundwater flow model in Cangzhou area is constructed by using Processing Modflow software. According to the groundwater model, the maximum water level depth of aquifer 鈪

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