【摘要】：區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不僅支持著區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的增長，而且在很大程度上決定著區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長的能力和潛力，是區(qū)域城市化進程的主要特征，也是區(qū)域城市用地結(jié)構(gòu)演變的主要動力和促進城市發(fā)展的真正動力。區(qū)域用地結(jié)構(gòu)的演變作為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)，二者相互促進，只有保證二者協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，，才能保證國民經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)、快速發(fā)展。 本文以西安市為例，探索西安市用地結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演替機制和內(nèi)在聯(lián)系，對于當(dāng)前土地參與宏觀調(diào)控具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 通過收集2003-2012年的城市土地利用和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)，借助相關(guān)經(jīng)濟理論和數(shù)據(jù)分析方法，探討近十年的土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演變規(guī)律和特征，揭示二者之間的聯(lián)動規(guī)律，并運用灰色預(yù)測模型對未來五年的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進行科學(xué)預(yù)測，在此基礎(chǔ)上提出西安市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化和用地結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的相關(guān)政策建議。 研究主要得出以下結(jié)論： （1）2003-2012年產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和用地結(jié)構(gòu)均有變化 西安市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)自1990年至今一直呈現(xiàn)出“三、二、一”格局，優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè)帶動效應(yīng)不明顯；十年間用地結(jié)構(gòu)變化明顯，主要體現(xiàn)在交通用地增長幅度最大，城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地大量增加，耕地和園地處于減少狀態(tài)。 （2）產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與用地結(jié)構(gòu)相關(guān)性較強 西安市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)具有很強的相關(guān)性，因此在今后產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化與用地結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整應(yīng)充分考慮二者的相關(guān)性，實現(xiàn)土地資源和產(chǎn)業(yè)布局的有效配置，協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 （3）2007年后產(chǎn)業(yè)變化滯后于用地結(jié)構(gòu)變化 2007年后產(chǎn)業(yè)變化滯后于用地結(jié)構(gòu)變化，這是由于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整沒有及時跟進用地結(jié)構(gòu)的變化速度所引起。 （4）預(yù)測2013-2017年二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值占總產(chǎn)值的比重將逐步增加 第二產(chǎn)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值占總產(chǎn)值的比重逐漸增加，同時發(fā)現(xiàn)二產(chǎn)、三產(chǎn)與林地、草地、交通用地呈正相關(guān)。 （5）西安市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與用地結(jié)構(gòu)的效能仍有進一步優(yōu)化的空間 西安市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與用地結(jié)構(gòu)的效能指數(shù)E為0.7831，屬于潛力級別的Ⅱ級，城市用地結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展趨于合理，但仍有進一步優(yōu)化的空間。 （6）政策建議 未來幾年西安市的發(fā)展中，結(jié)合西安市城市定位與城市職能，在土地供給時應(yīng)充分考慮土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的相關(guān)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The regional industrial structure not only supports the growth of regional economy, but also determines to a great extent the ability and potential of regional economic growth, which is the main characteristic of the process of regional urbanization. It is also the main driving force of the evolution of regional urban land use structure and the real power of promoting urban development. The evolution of regional land use structure as the material basis of industrial structure adjustment, the two promote each other, only to ensure the coordinated development of the two, can ensure the sustained and rapid development of the national economy. Taking Xi'an as an example, this paper explores the succession mechanism and internal relationship of land structure and industrial structure in Xi'an, which has important practical significance for land participation in macro-control at present. Through collecting the time series data of urban land use and industrial structure from 2003 to 2012, with the help of relevant economic theory and data analysis method, this paper discusses the evolution law and characteristics of land use structure and industrial structure in recent ten years. This paper reveals the law of linkage between the two and makes scientific prediction of the industrial structure in the next five years by using the grey forecasting model. On the basis of this, some policy suggestions on optimizing the industrial structure and adjusting the land use structure in Xi'an are put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) from 2003 to 2012, the industrial structure and land use structure of Xi'an have changed, and the industrial structure of Xi'an has been showing "three, two, one" pattern since 1990, and the driving effect of superior industry is not obvious; The change of land use structure is obvious in the past ten years, mainly reflected in the biggest increase of traffic land, the increase of town, village, industry and mining land, and the decrease of cultivated land and garden land. (2) the correlation between industrial structure and land use structure is strong, so the correlation between industrial structure and land use structure should be fully considered in the future. To achieve the effective allocation of land resources and industrial distribution, coordinated development. (3) Industrial change lags behind land use structure change after 2007, which is caused by industrial structure adjustment not following the change speed of land structure in time. (4) it is predicted that in February 2013-2017, the proportion of the added value of the third industry to the gross output value will gradually increase in the secondary industry, and the proportion of the added value of the third industry in the total output value will gradually increase. Traffic land is positively correlated. (5) the efficiency index of industrial structure and land use structure in Xi'an is 0.7831, which belongs to the second grade of potential grade. Urban land use structure and industrial development tend to be reasonable, but there is still room for further optimization. (6) in the development of Xi'an in the next few years, considering the orientation and function of Xi'an city, we should fully consider the coordinated development of land use structure and industrial structure in land supply.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F301.2;F121.3

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