【摘要】：區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的差異性，是世界各國及各地區(qū)的廣泛存在。為縮小差距，從中央到地方都把區(qū)域統(tǒng)籌納入發(fā)展藍(lán)圖，區(qū)域政策這只“看得見的手”，起著優(yōu)化資源配置、把控全局的關(guān)鍵作用。然而隨著時(shí)代變遷，，區(qū)域政策不一定能完全適應(yīng)現(xiàn)實(shí)需求，這需要科學(xué)可靠的評(píng)價(jià)，為現(xiàn)狀判研，為未來做引導(dǎo)。 廣東省在三十多年改革劇變中，社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)等方面取得了傲人的成績，但在欣喜之余也應(yīng)該清醒地意識(shí)到，社會(huì)發(fā)展不協(xié)調(diào)的問題嚴(yán)重突出。針對(duì)這一現(xiàn)象，廣東省采取了一系列政策措施以改觀現(xiàn)狀，實(shí)施效果褒貶不一。因此，對(duì)已施行政策進(jìn)行客觀合理的評(píng)價(jià)，是確定廣東省區(qū)域政策下一步走向的前提。 本文聚焦改革開放三十多年以來廣東省針對(duì)粵東西北地區(qū)出臺(tái)的區(qū)域政策演變，通過描述性定性分析、數(shù)學(xué)建模分析和計(jì)算機(jī)模擬相結(jié)合的方法，進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)研究。全文內(nèi)容安排如下： 第一章緒論部分。具體交代了本文研究背景、區(qū)域政策研究現(xiàn)狀、研究目標(biāo)與意義、研究主要內(nèi)容和技術(shù)路線。通過背景解讀可知，廣東省的“危機(jī)感”并非杞人憂天：首先，在國家大力推行新型城鎮(zhèn)化的今天，如何縮小地域差別這一議題顯得格外突出；其次，面對(duì)省內(nèi)珠三角與粵東西北地區(qū)之間相去甚遠(yuǎn)的事實(shí)，在“左右腿營養(yǎng)不均”的畸形發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)下，如何賽過“四肢協(xié)調(diào)、意氣風(fēng)發(fā)”的蘇魯浙地區(qū)，已然成為廣東省亟待解決的問題。 第二章解釋了本文涉及的相關(guān)概念，闡述了相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論。區(qū)域非均衡發(fā)展理論作為“珠三角-粵東西北”這一“核心-邊緣”結(jié)構(gòu)的理論依據(jù)，很好地解釋了粵東西北成為廣東省的后發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)并非偶然，然而其崛起也是順應(yīng)時(shí)勢的結(jié)果。本章以一般均衡理論作為量化評(píng)價(jià)手段，探討財(cái)政轉(zhuǎn)移支付和產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移政策兩種主要政策的實(shí)施效果與實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑。 第三章為政策梳理與評(píng)價(jià)方法概述部分。本章首先梳理了改革開放以來，廣東省為促進(jìn)粵東西北地區(qū)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展出臺(tái)的主要區(qū)域政策，基于此形成了時(shí)間斷面上的階段特征認(rèn)識(shí)�？偨Y(jié)得出財(cái)政轉(zhuǎn)移支付政策和產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移政策是廣東省促進(jìn)粵東西北地區(qū)發(fā)展的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)杠桿，也是第四章進(jìn)行政策模擬分析的具體研究對(duì)象。其次，本章詳細(xì)介紹了CGE模型構(gòu)建及計(jì)算機(jī)實(shí)現(xiàn)的具體操作過程。 第四章為評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果與對(duì)策建議部分。本章以2007年為數(shù)據(jù)基年，在編制粵東西北三區(qū)投入產(chǎn)出表的基礎(chǔ)上，核算出各區(qū)社會(huì)核算矩陣，然后通過構(gòu)建粵東西北地區(qū)多部門一般均衡模型，運(yùn)用計(jì)算機(jī)進(jìn)行技術(shù)編程，實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)財(cái)政轉(zhuǎn)移政策、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移政策的政策模擬與效果評(píng)價(jià)，并提出具體的對(duì)策建議。 第五章在前文研究的基礎(chǔ)上，進(jìn)行結(jié)論總結(jié)與討論，解釋了文章不足與未來展望。
[Abstract]:The difference of regional economic growth is the extensive existence of countries and regions all over the world. In order to narrow the gap, regional policies play a key role in optimizing the allocation of resources and controlling the overall situation. However, with the change of times, regional policies may not be able to meet the needs of reality, which requires scientific and reliable evaluation, research for the status quo and guidance for the future. Guangdong Province has made great achievements in social and economic aspects in the course of thirty years of reform and upheaval, but it should also be soberly aware that the problem of uncoordinated social development is serious. In response to this phenomenon, Guangdong Province has adopted a series of policy measures to improve the status quo, the implementation effect is mixed. Therefore, the objective and reasonable evaluation of the implemented policies is the premise to determine the next direction of the regional policy in Guangdong Province. This paper focuses on the evolution of regional policy in Guangdong Province since the reform and opening up to the outside world in the past 30 years. Through the methods of descriptive qualitative analysis, mathematical modeling and computer simulation, a comprehensive evaluation study is carried out. The content of the thesis is arranged as follows: the first chapter is the introduction. The research background, regional policy research status, research goal and significance, main content and technical route of this paper are explained in detail. From the background analysis, we can see that Guangdong's "sense of crisis" is not groundless: first, how to narrow the regional differences is particularly prominent today when the country is vigorously promoting new urbanization; secondly, In the face of the fact that the Pearl River Delta and the northwest part of Guangdong Province are far from each other, under the malformed development of "uneven nutrition of the left and right legs," how can they outcompete the Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang regions, where the limbs are coordinated and vigorous? Guangdong Province has become a problem to be solved. The second chapter explains the related concepts and basic theories. As the theoretical basis of the "core-edge" structure of "Pearl River Delta-Northwest Guangdong", the theory of regional non-equilibrium development well explains that it is no accident that the northwest part of Guangdong Province becomes a post-developed region in Guangdong Province. But its rise is also the result of the times. This chapter takes the general equilibrium theory as the quantitative evaluation means to discuss the implementation effect and realization path of the two main policies: fiscal transfer payment and industrial transfer policy. The third chapter is the summary of policy combing and evaluation methods. This chapter firstly combs the main regional policies of Guangdong province to promote the coordinated development of northwest Guangdong province since the reform and opening up, and based on this, it forms the stage characteristic cognition on the time section. It is concluded that fiscal transfer payment policy and industrial transfer policy are the main economic leverage of Guangdong province to promote the development of northwest Guangdong province, and are also the specific research object of policy simulation analysis in the fourth chapter. Secondly, this chapter introduces the construction of CGE model and the operation process of computer in detail. The fourth chapter is the evaluation result and countermeasure suggestion part. This chapter takes 2007 as the data base year, on the basis of compiling the input-output table of the three regions in the northwest of Guangdong province, calculates the social accounting matrix of each district, then through constructing the multi-department general equilibrium model of the northwest area of Guangdong Province, using the computer to carry on the technical programming. The policy simulation and effect evaluation of the fiscal transfer policy and the industrial transfer policy are realized, and the concrete countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The fifth chapter summarizes and discusses the conclusions based on the previous research, and explains the shortcomings and future prospects of the article.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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