本文選題：土地利用變化 + 長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域��； 參考：《南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：土地資源是重要的生產(chǎn)資料,是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展的重要基礎(chǔ)。土地利用變化是在各種驅(qū)動(dòng)力作用下人類與自然界的交互影響的體現(xiàn),加強(qiáng)土地利用變化的驅(qū)動(dòng)力研究是預(yù)測(cè)和分析土地利用演變的基礎(chǔ)。而隨著我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化進(jìn)程的加快,建設(shè)占用耕地已無(wú)可避免,深入研究土地利用變化的驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)理對(duì)促進(jìn)耕地的有效保護(hù)和土地利用布局的科學(xué)性具有十分重要的作用。改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),以上海、江蘇(分別為蘇州、無(wú)錫、常州、鎮(zhèn)江、南京、揚(yáng)州、泰州和南通八市)和浙江(分別為杭州、嘉興、湖州、紹興、寧波、舟山和臺(tái)州七市)為代表的長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域,成為全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最具活力、最富饒的區(qū)域之一,隨著工業(yè)化、城市化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的快速發(fā)展,土地利用已經(jīng)呈現(xiàn)出有別于我國(guó)其他地區(qū)的發(fā)展特點(diǎn)�；诖�,本文以長(zhǎng)江三角洲地區(qū)為例,以全國(guó)土地變更調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)為數(shù)據(jù)源,找出影響該區(qū)域主要地類變化的人文驅(qū)動(dòng)因素及其作用機(jī)理,對(duì)推進(jìn)節(jié)約集約利用土地資源、保護(hù)耕地和保障糧食安全、構(gòu)建城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展一體化建設(shè)體系均具有重要理論價(jià)值和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本論文結(jié)合我國(guó)新型城鎮(zhèn)化的大背景,尊重區(qū)域特色,重新審視了長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域土地利用變化及人文驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制,在長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域土地利用變化的DPSR分析框架構(gòu)建、基于人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)和政策三維度的人文驅(qū)動(dòng)因素分析以及長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域土地利用變化壓力分析方面具有一定的創(chuàng)新性。本文研究?jī)?nèi)容、方法如下：第一,論文對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外土地利用變化的相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)回顧,并對(duì)人地關(guān)系理論、PSR理論、土地區(qū)位理論、農(nóng)地非農(nóng)化理論、土地控制論等加以分析與對(duì)比,闡釋了土地利用變化的基本概念,構(gòu)建了長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域土地利用變化的DPSR理論分析框架。第二,分別從耕地和建設(shè)用地兩類土地面積變化的特征上解譯了長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域土地利用狀態(tài)演進(jìn)特點(diǎn)。在系統(tǒng)梳理研究不同時(shí)期土地利用分類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)耕地和建設(shè)用地?cái)?shù)據(jù)口徑進(jìn)行了調(diào)整統(tǒng)一,并對(duì)區(qū)域耕地和建設(shè)用地狀態(tài)演進(jìn)的具體特征和規(guī)律進(jìn)行分析,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：1996-2012年該地區(qū)耕地規(guī)模從5962.58萬(wàn)畝減少至4874.76萬(wàn)畝,17年間凈減少18.24%。其中水田和水澆地面積逐步減少,旱田面積則有所增加。1996-2012年區(qū)域建設(shè)用地規(guī)模從2208.24萬(wàn)畝增加至3848.80萬(wàn)畝。17年間凈增加74.29%，，平均年凈增加為96.50萬(wàn)畝。以2004年為分界點(diǎn),耕地減少速度和建設(shè)用地?cái)U(kuò)張速度分別呈不規(guī)則“U”型和倒“U”型特征。第三,從人口驅(qū)動(dòng)力、經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)力和政策驅(qū)動(dòng)力三個(gè)視角,結(jié)合典型城市重點(diǎn)討論人口規(guī)模、城市化、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展和財(cái)政收入偏好等對(duì)土地利用變化的影響及驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制。同時(shí),運(yùn)用構(gòu)建的長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域土地利用變化的人文驅(qū)動(dòng)力指標(biāo)體系,定量分析了人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)和政策因素對(duì)長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域建設(shè)用地?cái)U(kuò)張和耕地面積變化的影響。結(jié)果表明：人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、政策驅(qū)動(dòng)力對(duì)長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域建設(shè)用地和耕地面積變化均有不同程度的影響,如人口驅(qū)動(dòng)力中人口總量每上升1%,會(huì)導(dǎo)致建設(shè)用地增加1.70%,地均農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員數(shù)每增加1%,會(huì)使耕地面積增加1.11%。經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)力中農(nóng)村人均純收入每增加1%,耕地?cái)?shù)量減少0.69%,城鎮(zhèn)人均可支配收入每增加1%,建設(shè)用地?cái)?shù)量增加0.08%,可見(jiàn)隨著長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域居民收入提高,土地資源內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)會(huì)產(chǎn)生一定變化。而我國(guó)對(duì)農(nóng)田水利投資仍顯薄弱,沒(méi)有對(duì)保護(hù)耕地形成很好的支持。政策驅(qū)動(dòng)力中非農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中所占比重每上升1%,建設(shè)用地將下降0.67%,原因可能是長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展已逐漸遠(yuǎn)離了單純依賴消耗土地資源謀求GDP增值的階段,城市經(jīng)濟(jì)越發(fā)達(dá),建設(shè)用地集約效果反而會(huì)凸現(xiàn)。農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整也是造成耕地減少的一大因素,隨著種植業(yè)在農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值中的比重每下降1%,會(huì)使耕地面積下降0.43%。第四,從建設(shè)用地和耕地面積演化的雙重路徑對(duì)長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域土地利用變化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。論文利用灰色系統(tǒng)理論,建立了地均農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員數(shù)、城市化率、農(nóng)村人均純收入、農(nóng)村人均住房面積、農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和地均糧食產(chǎn)量構(gòu)成的耕地利用變化預(yù)測(cè)模型,以及人口密度、城市化率、地均GDP、固定資產(chǎn)投資和非農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)比重構(gòu)成的建設(shè)用地利用變化預(yù)測(cè)模型,預(yù)測(cè)精度檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明灰色預(yù)測(cè)精度高,可信度大。預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果：未來(lái)5-10年長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域耕地面積下降和建設(shè)用地規(guī)模擴(kuò)張還將持續(xù)。根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè),在保持目前經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展速度和耕地與建設(shè)用地利用變化速度狀態(tài)下,到2020年長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域?qū)崿F(xiàn)2020年土地利用規(guī)劃目標(biāo)的將有545.36萬(wàn)畝的耕地缺口壓力和885.97萬(wàn)畝的建設(shè)用地需求壓力。第五,將長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域未來(lái)土地利用變化的趨勢(shì)與長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域土地利用變化的人文驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制分析結(jié)果相結(jié)合,論文從區(qū)域土地利用調(diào)控體系、手段和對(duì)策三方面提出了完善長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域土地利用調(diào)控模式,并圍繞人口驅(qū)動(dòng)力、經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)力和政策驅(qū)動(dòng)力提出了促進(jìn)長(zhǎng)江三角洲區(qū)域土地資源可持續(xù)利用的土地調(diào)控政策。
[Abstract]:Land resources are important production data and an important basis for national economic and social development. Land use change is the embodiment of the interaction of human and nature under various driving forces. The research on driving force of land use change is the basis for predicting and analyzing the change of land use. With the urbanization and industrialization of China, the land use change is the basis of the prediction and analysis of land use change. The accelerated process of construction and occupation of cultivated land is inevitable. It is very important to study the driving mechanism of land use change in order to promote the effective protection of cultivated land and the scientific nature of land use layout. Since the reform and opening up, Shanghai and Jiangsu (respectively Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Zhenjiang, Nanjing, Yangzhou, Taizhou and Nantong, eight cities) The Yangtze River Delta region, represented by Zhejiang (Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Ningbo, Zhoushan and Taizhou seven cities), has become one of the most dynamic and richest regions in the country's economic development. With the rapid development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, soil and soil utilization has shown its characteristics different from other regions of our country. In this case, taking the Yangtze River Delta as an example, taking the national land change survey data as the data source, this paper finds out the human driving factors affecting the major changes in the region and its mechanism of action. It is important to promote the conservation and intensive use of land resources, protect the cultivated land and ensure the security of grain, and build an integrated construction system of urban and rural development. According to the background of the new urbanization in China and the regional characteristics, this paper reexamines the land use change and human driving mechanism in the Yangtze River Delta region, and constructs the DPSR analysis framework of land use change in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the human driving factors based on the population, economy and the three dimensional degree of policy. The analysis and the analysis of land use change pressure in the Yangtze River Delta region have some innovation. The contents of this paper are as follows: first, the thesis systematically reviews the related research on land use change at home and abroad, and the theory of human land relations, PSR theory, land location theory, farmland non agronativeness theory and land control theory. On the basis of analysis and comparison, the basic concepts of land use change are explained, and the DPSR theoretical analysis framework for the change of land use in the Yangtze River Delta is constructed. Second, the evolution characteristics of the land use state of the Yangtze River Delta region are interpreted from the characteristics of the two types of land area change in the cultivated land and the construction land. On the basis of the classification standard system of land use in different periods, the data of cultivated land and construction land are adjusted and unified, and the specific characteristics and laws of regional cultivated land and construction land evolution are analyzed. It is found that the scale of cultivated land is reduced from 59 million 625 thousand and 800 Mu to 48 million 747 thousand and 600 mu in the 1996-2012 years, and net decrease in 17 years. In 18.24%., the area of paddy field and irrigated land gradually decreased, and the area of dry land increased in.1996-2012 years from 22 million 82 thousand and 400 mu to 38 million 488 thousand mu in.17 years. The average annual net increase was 965 thousand mu. In 2004, the speed of farmland reduction and construction land expansion rate were irregular, respectively. U "type" and "inverted" "U" type characteristics. Third, from the three perspectives of population driving force, economic driving force and policy driving force, the influence and driving mechanism of population size, urbanization, real estate development and fiscal revenue preference on land use change and driving mechanism are discussed in typical cities. The influence of population, economic and policy factors on the regional construction land expansion and the change of cultivated land area in the Yangtze River Delta is quantitatively analyzed by the changing human driving force index system. The results show that the population, economy and policy driving force have different influence on the regional construction land and the land accumulation change in the Yangtze River Delta, such as the population drive. The total increase of 1% of the total population will lead to an increase of 1.70% of the construction land and the increase of 1% of the number of agricultural employees, which will increase the area of cultivated land by an increase of 1%, the number of cultivated land by 0.69%, the per capita disposable income of the town by 1%, and the number of construction land by 0.08%, which can be seen along with the three of the Yangtze River, which can be seen along with the three of the Yangtze River. There will be a certain change in the income of the residents in the Chau region and the internal structure of land resources. However, the investment in farmland water conservancy is still weak in China, and there is no good support for the formation of cultivated land. The proportion of non-agricultural industries in the national economy increases by 1% and the construction land will fall by 0.67% in the policy driving force. The reason may be the Yangtze River Delta region. The economic development has been gradually far away from the stage of increasing the value of GDP by simply relying on the consumption of land resources. The more developed the urban economy is, the intensive effect of the construction land will become more prominent. The adjustment of the agricultural structure is also a major factor in the reduction of cultivated land. As the proportion of the planting industry in the agricultural output value decreases by 1%, the arable land will decrease by 0.43%. fourth, The land-use change trend of the Yangtze River Delta region is predicted by the dual path of the construction land and the cultivated land area evolution. By using the grey system theory, the paper sets up the number of agricultural employees, the urbanization rate, the per capita net income of the rural areas, the rural per capita housing area, the agricultural structure adjustment and the land average grain yield. The change prediction model, as well as the population density, the urbanization rate, the ground average GDP, the fixed assets investment and the non-agricultural industry proportion of the construction land use change prediction model, the prediction accuracy test results show that the grey prediction precision is high and the reliability is big. The forecast results are: the land area decline and the construction land scale in the Changjiang Delta region in the next 5-10 years. The expansion will continue. According to the forecast, under the condition of maintaining the speed of economic and social development and the changing speed of farmland and construction land, by 2020 the land use planning target of the Yangtze River Delta region will have 5 million 453 thousand and 600 mu of cultivated land gap pressure and 8 million 859 thousand and 700 mu of demand pressure on construction land in 2020. Fifth, the Yangtze River Delta The trend of land use change in the area of the continent is combined with the result of the analysis of the human driving mechanism of land use change in the Yangtze River Delta. The paper puts forward the mode of improving the land use regulation in the Yangtze River Delta region from three aspects of regional land use regulation system, means and countermeasures, and surrounding the population driving force, economic driving force and politics. The policy driving power puts forward the land regulation policy to promote the sustainable utilization of the land resources in the Yangtze River Delta.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F301.24

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