本文選題：工業(yè)園區(qū) + 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型　； 參考：《蘭州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：工業(yè)園區(qū)是發(fā)展區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要載體,經(jīng)過多年的粗放式發(fā)展,許多工業(yè)園區(qū)都產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)峻的環(huán)境問題。甘肅省是改革開放以來最早的工業(yè)省份之一,目前有35個(gè)國家級及省級園區(qū),這些園區(qū)在發(fā)展的過程中存在著資源利用程度低、環(huán)境污染程度大等問題。究其原因,主要是因?yàn)槟壳拔覈墓I(yè)園區(qū)發(fā)展歷史較短,在運(yùn)行機(jī)制和產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)度等方面還不成熟。因此面對這一現(xiàn)狀,本文在系統(tǒng)查閱國內(nèi)外工業(yè)園區(qū)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的基礎(chǔ)上,從理論到實(shí)證,對甘肅省工業(yè)園區(qū)的未來發(fā)展方向進(jìn)行了研究,具體內(nèi)容和結(jié)論如下： (1)論文以循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論和系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論為基礎(chǔ),對甘肅省工業(yè)園區(qū)進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)分析,通過研究園區(qū)的主要特征,將甘肅省工業(yè)園區(qū)分為經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口和環(huán)境三個(gè)子系統(tǒng),并且闡述了各個(gè)子系統(tǒng)之間的關(guān)系,表明工業(yè)園區(qū)是個(gè)復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng),三個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)作都是息息相關(guān)的。 (2)論文通過分析三個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的主要特點(diǎn),選出了61個(gè)變量,構(gòu)建了35方程式,最終建立了甘肅省工業(yè)園區(qū)的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,并且通過了模型驗(yàn)證。這表明本論文所建立的模型是可行且可實(shí)踐的。 (3)選取甘肅省具有代表性的玉門經(jīng)濟(jì)開發(fā)區(qū)為實(shí)例,對玉門經(jīng)濟(jì)開發(fā)區(qū)進(jìn)行模擬預(yù)測。模擬設(shè)置了11種不同的調(diào)控方案,分析了園區(qū)的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值增加值、固體廢棄物存儲量、廢水總量、污水中COD的含量、大氣中SO2的變化趨勢。經(jīng)由這些變量的數(shù)值變化趨勢,為玉門經(jīng)濟(jì)開發(fā)區(qū)設(shè)置了近期發(fā)展和遠(yuǎn)期發(fā)展兩種優(yōu)化調(diào)控方案。 本論文所進(jìn)行的研究是基于甘肅省工業(yè)園區(qū)目前發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況,構(gòu)建出的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型具有普遍實(shí)用性,通過對玉門經(jīng)濟(jì)開發(fā)區(qū)進(jìn)行的實(shí)證分析,不但可以對玉門經(jīng)濟(jì)開發(fā)區(qū)未來的發(fā)展模式進(jìn)行調(diào)控,還能對甘肅省其他工業(yè)園區(qū)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供理論和實(shí)踐上的支持。
[Abstract]:Industrial park is the main carrier of the development of regional economy. After years of extensive development, many industrial parks have produced severe environmental problems. Gansu Province is one of the earliest industrial provinces since the reform and opening up. At present there are 35 national and provincial parks. In the process of development of these parks there are some problems such as low utilization of resources and large degree of environmental pollution. The main reason is that the development history of industrial parks in our country is short and the operation mechanism and industrial correlation degree are not mature. Therefore, in the face of this situation, this paper, on the basis of systematically consulting the development situation of industrial parks at home and abroad, and from theory to demonstration, studies the future development direction of industrial parks in Gansu Province. The specific contents and conclusions are as follows: Based on the theory of circular economy and the theory of system dynamics, this paper makes a systematic analysis of Gansu Industrial Park. By studying the main characteristics of the park, the paper divides Gansu Industrial Park into three subsystems: economy, population and environment. The relationship between each subsystem is expounded, which shows that the industrial park is a complex system and the operation of the three subsystems is closely related. By analyzing the main characteristics of the three subsystems, 61 variables are selected and 35 equations are constructed. Finally, the system dynamics model of Gansu Industrial Park is established and verified by the model. This shows that the model established in this paper is feasible and practical. The representative Yumen Economic Development Zone in Gansu Province is selected as an example to simulate and forecast Yumen Economic Development Zone. In this paper, 11 different control schemes are set up, and the industrial gross product (GDP), the added value of industrial gross product (GDP), the storage capacity of solid waste, the total amount of wastewater, the content of COD in sewage and the change trend of SO2 in atmosphere are analyzed. Through the numerical change trend of these variables, two optimal control schemes are set up for the Yumen Economic Development Zone in the near term and in the long term. The research in this paper is based on the current development of Gansu Industrial Park, the system dynamics model has universal practicability, through the empirical analysis of Yumen Economic Development Zone. It can not only regulate the future development mode of Yumen Economic Development Zone, but also provide theoretical and practical support for the sustainable development of other industrial parks in Gansu Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F205;N941.3;F427

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