本文選題：數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量 + 聯(lián)立方程組��； 參考：《燕山大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)是一個國家或地區(qū)社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的基本情報，是各級主管部門正確分析國民經(jīng)濟運行態(tài)勢以及制定方針政策和宏觀調(diào)控的重要依據(jù)。同時，準確而充分的統(tǒng)計信息是決策與科學研究的基礎(chǔ)，直接影響到社會科學研究能否產(chǎn)生正確的研究結(jié)果。目前我國經(jīng)濟處于持續(xù)的高速增長時期，伴隨著這種持續(xù)的增長，我國有關(guān)經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)也受到了許多國內(nèi)外專家學者的質(zhì)疑。因此對統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量作出科學的檢驗，具有重要現(xiàn)實意義和應用價值。 論文主要由五部分構(gòu)成。首先，利用選題背景分析了統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的真實性在社會科學發(fā)展中所發(fā)揮的關(guān)鍵作用以及建立統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量檢驗評估體系的重要意義；其次，對統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)檢驗研究前人的已有方法進行概括歸納，對我國區(qū)域宏觀經(jīng)濟統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量的現(xiàn)狀進行定性分析，找出我國現(xiàn)行區(qū)域宏觀經(jīng)濟統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計的方法中存在的問題。提出論文所要研究討論的主要內(nèi)容和方法。再次，介紹了區(qū)域宏觀經(jīng)濟指標、聯(lián)立方程組計量經(jīng)濟學模型和Benford統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量檢驗方法的原理和使用條件。然后，將Benford法則與聯(lián)立方程組的計量經(jīng)濟學模型相結(jié)合，從定量角度研究區(qū)域經(jīng)濟統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的質(zhì)量檢驗問題，改進了經(jīng)典的以上年統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)預測下年統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)模型，建立以同一年份指標為解釋變量和被解釋量的聯(lián)立方程組計量經(jīng)濟學模型，，并運用SAS軟件以我國2006-2011年31個省市宏觀經(jīng)濟指標的截面統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)為樣本對模型進行估計、檢驗和改進；并以2012年我國實際宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)對建立模型進行了檢驗，效果良好。最后，針對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量情況和實際數(shù)據(jù)生成過程中存在的問題提出改進的可行性建議。
[Abstract]:Statistical data is the basic information of the social and economic development of a country or a region. It is also an important basis for the competent departments at all levels to correctly analyze the operational situation of the national economy and to formulate policies and principles as well as macroeconomic regulation and control.At the same time, accurate and sufficient statistical information is the basis of decision-making and scientific research, which directly affects whether social science research can produce correct research results.At present, China's economy is in a period of sustained rapid growth, with this sustained growth, China's economic data has also been questioned by many experts and scholars at home and abroad.Therefore, it is of great practical significance and application value to make a scientific test on the quality of statistical data.The paper consists of five parts.Firstly, the paper analyzes the key role of the authenticity of statistical data in the development of social science and the importance of establishing a statistical data quality inspection and evaluation system by using the background of the selected topic.This paper generalizes the existing methods of statistical data test and summarizes the present situation of data quality of regional macroeconomic statistics in China, and finds out the existing problems in the methods of statistics of regional macroeconomic statistics in China.The main contents and methods of the paper are put forward.Thirdly, the paper introduces the principles and application conditions of regional macroeconomic indicators, simultaneous equations econometrics model and Benford statistical data quality inspection method.Then, combining the Benford rule with the econometrics model of simultaneous equations, this paper studies the quality inspection of regional economic statistics from the quantitative point of view, and improves the classical statistical data prediction model for the previous year.An econometric model of simultaneous equations with the index of the same year as the explanatory variable and the explained quantity is established. The econometrics model is estimated by using the cross section statistical data of 31 provinces and cities' macroeconomic indicators from 2006 to 2011 using SAS software.Test and improvement, and the actual macroeconomic data in China in 2012 to test the establishment of the model, the results are good.Finally, some feasible suggestions are put forward to improve the quality of macroeconomic statistical data and the problems existing in the process of actual data generation.
【學位授予單位】：燕山大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124;F224

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