本文選題：通貨膨脹區(qū)域差異 + 貿(mào)易收支傳導(dǎo)��； 參考：《華南理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論闡明了開放條件下的外部沖擊是影響一國(guó)通貨膨脹的重要因素之一，，已有的研究成果證明了外部市場(chǎng)所引致的一國(guó)國(guó)際收支的改變，以及匯率的外生變動(dòng)，都將對(duì)該國(guó)的內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡產(chǎn)生影響。2008年以來(lái)，關(guān)于中國(guó)新一輪通貨膨脹的引致原因，其中的輸入性因素已引起廣泛的討論。 外部沖擊的影響不僅表現(xiàn)在宏觀層面，更會(huì)深入到包括區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化和微觀企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力等各個(gè)方面。鑒于此，本文選取我國(guó)區(qū)域差異的中觀視角，探討國(guó)際收支和匯率的改變，在假定其他因素不變的前提下，如何傳導(dǎo)并影響我國(guó)通貨膨脹的區(qū)域差異。 論文首先對(duì)我國(guó)通貨膨脹區(qū)域差異現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了定量描述，并定性分析了外部沖擊和匯率變動(dòng)通過(guò)貿(mào)易渠道、資本渠道對(duì)通貨膨脹區(qū)域差異的作用機(jī)制，在此基礎(chǔ)上選取我國(guó)31個(gè)省份2004-2011年的樣本數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，在控制了地方投資水平、區(qū)域生產(chǎn)總值、區(qū)域人口水平等影響因素，以及地理區(qū)位等時(shí)不變因素和時(shí)間趨勢(shì)的影響之后，實(shí)證結(jié)果表明外部沖擊是影響我國(guó)區(qū)域通貨膨脹差異的一個(gè)不可忽視的重要影響因素。 通過(guò)研究得到：（1）外部沖擊是形成我國(guó)通貨膨脹區(qū)域差異的重要原因之一；（2）從外貿(mào)收支角度看，各地區(qū)出口規(guī)模與區(qū)域通貨膨脹顯著負(fù)相關(guān)；（3）匯率上升（即人民幣貶值）對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度越高地區(qū)的通貨膨脹影響程度越小，反之則越大；（4）隨著匯率的增加，出口對(duì)通貨膨脹的抑制效應(yīng)在減��；（5）區(qū)域范圍內(nèi)的貨幣供應(yīng)量依舊是決定區(qū)域物價(jià)水平的主要決定因素�；谏鲜鲅芯拷Y(jié)論，本文提出了有針對(duì)性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The classical economic theory clarifies that the external shock under the open condition is one of the important factors that affect the inflation of a country. The existing research results prove the change of a country's balance of payments caused by the external market, as well as the exogenous change of the exchange rate.Both will have an impact on the country's internal economic balance. Since 2008, there has been widespread discussion about the causes of China's new round of inflation.The impact of external shocks is not only on the macro level, but also on various aspects, including regional economic growth, industrial structure optimization and micro-enterprise competitiveness.In view of this, this paper selects the middle angle of view of regional differences in China, discusses the changes of balance of payments and exchange rate, and how to conduct and affect the regional differences of inflation in China on the assumption that other factors remain unchanged.Firstly, the paper gives a quantitative description of the regional differences of inflation in China, and qualitatively analyzes the mechanism of external shocks and exchange rate changes through trade channels and capital channels on regional differences in inflation.On this basis, the sample data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2011 are selected for empirical test, which control the influence factors such as local investment level, regional GDP, regional population level and so on.After the influence of geographical location isochronous invariant factor and time trend, the empirical results show that external shock is an important factor that can not be ignored to influence the regional inflation difference in China.From the perspective of foreign trade revenue and expenditure, we can find that external shocks are one of the important reasons for the regional differences in inflation in China.There is a significant negative correlation between regional export scale and regional inflation. (3) the rise of exchange rate (that is, RMB depreciation) has a smaller impact on inflation in areas with higher economic openness, and vice versa with the increase of exchange rate.The restraining effect of export on inflation is still the main determinant of regional price level.Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F822.5;F752

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