本文選題：鄒城市 + 水資源評價　； 參考：《山東農業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水資源評價一般是針對某一特定區(qū)域,在水資源調查的基礎上,研究特定區(qū)域內的降水、蒸發(fā)、徑流諸要素的變化規(guī)律和轉化關系,闡明地表水和地下水資源數量、質量及其時空分布特點。開展需水量調查和可供水量的計算,進行水資源供需分析,尋求水資源可持續(xù)利用最優(yōu)方案,為區(qū)域經濟、社會發(fā)展和國民經濟各部門提供服務。水資源評價是水資源合理開發(fā)利用的前提,是水資源規(guī)劃的依據,也是保護和管理水資源的基礎。 鄒城市是全國綜合實力百強(縣)市、新興能源工業(yè)基地,境內大企業(yè)眾多,對水資源量需求較大。鄒城市屬淮河流域南四湖湖東區(qū)水系,全市多年平均水資源總量約為5.35億m3,地域分布不均,人均年占有量462m3,僅為全國人均占有量的五分之一,屬于水危機區(qū)。隨著社會經濟的快速發(fā)展,人民生活水平的不斷提高,尤其是煤電化工企業(yè)得到較大發(fā)展,支撐產業(yè)發(fā)展的水資源日益短缺,供需關系緊張,地下水開采承擔著較大壓力,地表水環(huán)境日趨惡化。因此,對鄒城市水資源狀況進行評價,研究其水資源變化情勢十分必要。 鄒城市地表水系列和地下水系列均為1956～2005年系列,不足以滿足現階段的水資源綜合規(guī)劃的要求。水資源系列值的確定受多種因素的影響,其中包括該地區(qū)降雨、蒸發(fā)、降雨入滲等因素,本文通過定量描述鄒城市水資源系列與降雨系列的相關關系對鄒城市水資源系列進行展延,結果表明,展延成果精確度較高。通過相關分析法,得到鄒城市降水系列與同時期地表水系列、地下水系列有著較強的相關關系,得到相關公式,通過2005～2010年的降水系列利用相關公式,展延地表水系列和地下水系列到2010年。利用展延后的資料對鄒城市水資源按流域分區(qū)和行政分區(qū)進行水資源評價,具體包括地表水資源評價、地下水資源評價、水資源總量評價、水資源可利用量評價等,通過鄒城市水資源評價成果可知鄒城市流域分區(qū)和行政分區(qū)的水資源分布和數量,對于科學規(guī)劃利用水資源有重要意義。 在水資源評價內容的基礎上,對鄒城市水資源演變情勢進行了研究。因為水資源系列具有一定的隨機性和波動性,針對已有的水資源系列本身的特性,本文通過滑動平均法,盡可能消除由其波動性引起的誤差,對鄒城市未來十年水資源量進行分析預測,預測成果較為可靠為缺少水資源實測資料的水資源評價及水資源量預測提供了一條值得探索的途徑。 滑動平均法是用一組近期的實際數據值來預測未來數據值的一種常用方法。它的基本思想是：根據時間序列資料、逐項推移,依次計算包含一定項數的序時平均值,以反映長期趨勢的方法。因此,當時間序列的數值由于受周期變動和隨機波動的影響,起伏較大,不易顯示出事件的發(fā)展趨勢時,使用移動平均法可以消除這些因素的影響,顯示出事件的發(fā)展方向與趨勢(即趨勢線),然后依趨勢線分析預測序列的長期趨勢。通過一次滑動平均、二次滑動平均對鄒城市未來十年水資源變化情況進行預測,得到變化趨勢及未來十年水資源量的預測值。
[Abstract]:Water resources assessment is generally in a particular area, based on water resources survey, the study of evaporation within a specific area of precipitation, runoff, elements of the variation and transformation relations, clarify the quantity of surface water and groundwater resources, quality and spatial distribution characteristics. To carry out the requirement investigation and calculation of water supply for analysis of the supply and demand of water resources, the optimal scheme for sustainable utilization of water resources, to provide services for regional economic, social development and national economic departments. Water resources assessment is the precondition of reasonable development and utilization of water resources, water resources is the basis for planning, which is the basis of the protection and management of water resources.
Zoucheng city is a national comprehensive strength hundred city (county), the new energy industry base, many domestic large enterprises, large demand for water resources. Zoucheng municipal Huaihe River East River Lake Nansi Lake, the city's average annual total water resources of about 535 million m3, the uneven geographical distribution, the per capita possession of 462m3, only the national per capita the possession of 1/5, belonging to the water crisis area. With the rapid development of social economy, the improvement of people's living standards, especially coal chemical enterprises have achieved great development, the growing shortage of water resources to support the development of the industry, the tension between supply and demand, bear the greater pressure of groundwater, surface water environment deterioration. Therefore, to evaluate the the situation of water resources in Zoucheng City, to study the change of water resources situation is very necessary.
Zoucheng city surface water and groundwater series series are for the 1956~2005 year series, not enough to meet the present stage of integrated water resources planning requirements. Determine the water resources value of the series is influenced by many factors, including the rainfall, evaporation, rainfall infiltration and other factors, this paper through the quantitative description of the relationship of water resources in Zoucheng city a series of series of series of rainfall and water resources of Zoucheng city extension, the results show that the extended results of high precision. Through correlation analysis, get the surface water in Zoucheng city with the same period of precipitation, groundwater series has a strong correlation, get the correlation formula by precipitation series 2005~2010 years using formula. An extension of the surface water and groundwater series until 2010. By using the delayed data of water resources in Zoucheng city according to the basin and administrative zoning evaluation of water resources, including Evaluation of surface water resources, groundwater resources evaluation, evaluation of the total water resources, available water resources evaluation, the distribution of water resources and the quantity of water resources evaluation results in Zoucheng city zoning and administrative division of Zoucheng City, has important significance for scientific planning and utilization of water resources.
On the basis of water resources evaluation on the content of water resources in Zoucheng city. The situation for the water resources series is random and the volatility of the characteristics of water resources in the series itself, through the sliding average method, as far as possible to eliminate the error caused by the fluctuation, to analyze and forecast Zoucheng City, the next ten years, the amount of water resources, the prediction results are more reliable for the prediction and evaluation of water resources lack of water resources and water resources data provides a way worthy of exploration.
The moving average method is a common method to predict future data values with a real data set to the recent value. Its basic idea is: according to the time series data, one goes on, followed by calculating the number of sequence contains a mean value method to reflect the long-term trend. Therefore, when the numerical time series due to the impact of and by periodic change and random wave fluctuation, is not easy to show the trend of events, using moving average method can eliminate the influence of these factors, showing the development direction and trend of the event (i.e. the trend line), and then according to the analysis of the long-term trend line trend forecast series. Through a moving average of two. A moving average of the change of water resources in Zoucheng city in the future ten years is forecasted, the trend and future ten years the amount of water resources value.

【學位授予單位】：山東農業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213.4

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本文編號：1744213