本文選題：經(jīng)濟增長效應　切入點：引力模型　出處：《山東大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：進入20世紀90年代,區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化快速發(fā)展起來,尤其在以多哈談判為代表的多邊貿(mào)易談判陷入僵局后,更為靈活的FTA成為各國的優(yōu)先選擇,紛紛通過建立本國的FTA網(wǎng)絡為對外貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造更加優(yōu)惠、穩(wěn)固的環(huán)境。中國也適應這一國際趨勢,在加入WTO后著力推行FTA的建設。雖然起步略晚于日本、韓國等較為發(fā)達的國家,但中國的自貿(mào)區(qū)建設發(fā)展迅速,迄今已簽署并實施了14個自貿(mào)協(xié)定,成員國遍及各大洲,可謂碩果累累。在梳理中國FTA建設的發(fā)展進程時,本文將其分為了合作機制研究階段、自貿(mào)區(qū)建設初期及全面建設階段,并根據(jù)中國在各階段的主要舉措及實踐成果總結(jié)出各時期的特點。在合作機制研究階段,中國的主要目的是加強兩國間的政治經(jīng)濟互信并通過積極參與區(qū)域性經(jīng)貿(mào)會議積累談判經(jīng)驗;在自貿(mào)區(qū)建設初期,中國主要以發(fā)展中國家為自貿(mào)協(xié)定簽署對象,分階段分領域提高貿(mào)易自由化水平并建成了許多具有里程碑式意義的自貿(mào)區(qū);在全面建設階段,中國已經(jīng)有足夠的自貿(mào)區(qū)建設經(jīng)驗及較高的開放水平,因此簽署的自貿(mào)協(xié)定多為"一攬子協(xié)定"并根據(jù)兩國的貿(mào)易往來制定個性化協(xié)定,顯示出更為完善的FTA發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。同時,通過對中國自貿(mào)區(qū)的建設過程進行分析,能夠更加清晰地理解中國建設立足周邊、契合"一帶一路"、范圍更廣的高標準FTA網(wǎng)絡的自貿(mào)區(qū)戰(zhàn)略的內(nèi)涵。盡管戰(zhàn)略正式提出時間較短,但通過對中國已建成及仍處于建設中的自貿(mào)區(qū)的分析發(fā)現(xiàn),此前的自貿(mào)區(qū)建設同樣具有相同的簽約國范圍廣、自由化水平不斷提升、契合"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略等特點,與2015年提出的戰(zhàn)略內(nèi)涵一致。本文借助引力模型及2002年至2015年中國FTA的相關數(shù)據(jù),對FTA戰(zhàn)略的經(jīng)濟效應進行了實證分析。實證結(jié)果表明,中國FTA的建設對于雙邊貿(mào)易額的影響是正向的,即在貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應及貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應共同存在的前提下,中國迄今建設的FTA整體上發(fā)揮了經(jīng)濟增長效應,肯定了中國自貿(mào)區(qū)戰(zhàn)略的積極意義。但是,中國自貿(mào)區(qū)建設的經(jīng)濟增長效應盡管略高于日本,但仍是有限的。同時,通過對四個建立較早的FTA的經(jīng)濟效應進行實證分析發(fā)現(xiàn),單個FTA的經(jīng)濟增長效應不顯著,說明中國自貿(mào)區(qū)的效應仍有進一步提升的空間。最后,本文結(jié)合中國自貿(mào)區(qū)建設的特點、經(jīng)濟增長效應的實證結(jié)果及與日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)戰(zhàn)略的比較,提出了推進中國FTA戰(zhàn)略的建議。中國應在延續(xù)現(xiàn)有的FTA戰(zhàn)略的基礎上適當提速,全力構(gòu)建FTA;推動自貿(mào)區(qū)的進一步升級談判,提高與自貿(mào)區(qū)成員國間的全方位、多領域開放水平;借鑒日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)戰(zhàn)略的優(yōu)點,完善自貿(mào)區(qū)相關機制,加強自貿(mào)區(qū)領域人才的培養(yǎng),打造優(yōu)質(zhì)團隊,提高地方政府及企業(yè)的參與度,讓企業(yè)在自貿(mào)區(qū)的實施中獲得更多實際收益。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of regional economic integration in the 1990s, especially after the multilateral trade negotiations, represented by the Doha negotiations, have reached an impasse, a more flexible FTA has become a priority choice for all countries. One after another, China has created a more favorable and stable environment for foreign trade through the establishment of its own FTA network. China has also adapted to this international trend and has made great efforts to promote the construction of FTA after its entry into WTO. Although it started slightly later than Japan, South Korea and other more developed countries, However, the construction of China's free trade zone has developed rapidly. So far, 14 free trade agreements have been signed and implemented, and the member countries are all over every continent, which is fruitful. In combing the development process of China's FTA construction, this paper divides it into the research stage of cooperation mechanism. At the beginning of the construction of the Free Trade Zone and the overall construction stage, and according to China's main measures and practical results in each stage, summed up the characteristics of each period. In the research stage of cooperation mechanism, The main purpose of China is to strengthen political and economic mutual trust between the two countries and to accumulate experience in negotiations through active participation in regional economic and trade meetings. In the early stages of the construction of the FTA, China mainly took developing countries as the object of signing the FTA. The level of trade liberalization has been raised in stages and areas, and many milestone free trade zones have been built. In the comprehensive construction phase, China already has sufficient experience in building free trade zones and a high level of opening up. Therefore, most of the free trade agreements signed are "package agreements" and individualized agreements are drawn up according to the trade exchanges between the two countries, which shows a more perfect FTA development strategy. At the same time, through the analysis of the construction process of China's free trade zone, To be able to understand more clearly the implications of China's free-trade zone strategy for building a perimeter based on "Belt and Road", a wider range of high-standard FTA networks, although the strategy has been formally proposed for a relatively short time. However, through the analysis of the free trade zones that China has built and is still under construction, it is found that the previous construction of the free trade zones also had the same characteristics as the wide range of signatory countries, the constant upgrading of the level of liberalization, and the agreement with the "Belt and Road" strategy. With the help of gravity model and relevant data of China's FTA from 2002 to 2015, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the economic effects of FTA strategy. The empirical results show that, The effect of China's FTA construction on bilateral trade volume is positive, that is, under the premise of the existence of trade creation effect and trade transfer effect, the FTA constructed by China so far has played an overall role in economic growth. The positive significance of China's free trade zone strategy is affirmed. However, the economic growth effect of China's free trade zone construction is still limited, although it is slightly higher than that of Japan. At the same time, through the empirical analysis of the economic effects of the four earlier FTA, it is found that, The economic growth effect of a single FTA is not significant, indicating that there is still room for further improvement in the effect of China's free trade zone. Finally, this paper combines the characteristics of the construction of China's free trade zone, the empirical results of the economic growth effect and the comparison with the strategy of Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone. This paper puts forward some suggestions for promoting China's FTA strategy. China should speed up the development of the FTA strategy on the basis of continuing the existing FTA strategy, promote the negotiation of further upgrading of the FTAs, and improve the all-around and multi-field opening level with the FTA-member countries. Draw lessons from the advantages of the strategy of Japan and Korea Free Trade Zone, perfect the relevant mechanism of Free Trade Zone, strengthen the cultivation of talents in the field of Free Trade Zone, build high-quality teams, improve the participation of local governments and enterprises, and make enterprises gain more actual benefits in the implementation of the Free Trade Zone.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752

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