本文關(guān)鍵詞： 雅魯藏布江中游 徑流趨勢分析 水文模型 徑流預(yù)測　出處：《清華大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：雅魯藏布江(以下簡稱雅江)是西藏地區(qū)最大的河流,亦是世界上海拔高度最高的大河,境內(nèi)流域面積大約24萬km2,水能蘊(yùn)藏量巨大。根據(jù)第五次西藏工作座談會提出的要將西藏建設(shè)成為國家重要的能源接續(xù)基地的目標(biāo)要求,雅江流域的水能資源開發(fā)將成為我國水電工程建設(shè)的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域之一。目前,雅魯藏布江中游羊村水文站以下至加查峽谷段規(guī)劃了巴玉、大古、街需、藏木、加查、冷達(dá)、仲達(dá)等7個(gè)梯級電站。其中,藏木水電站已于2010年開工建設(shè),是雅江干流的首座水電站,也是西藏境內(nèi)目前在建的最大規(guī)模的水電站,總裝機(jī)容量為51萬kw。按照藏木水電站2014年10月底至11月上旬首臺機(jī)組發(fā)電的工程建設(shè)目標(biāo),電站計(jì)劃2014年10月份擇機(jī)下閘蓄水,設(shè)計(jì)工況為Q=839m3/s下第六扇導(dǎo)流底孔封堵閘門開始蓄水。為合理選擇藏木水電站下閘蓄水日期,同時(shí)也為水電站日后運(yùn)行需要,對雅魯藏布江中游河段藏木斷面(羊村站)的徑流模擬和預(yù)測分析十分必要。在文獻(xiàn)調(diào)研和實(shí)測資料收集的基礎(chǔ)上,本文基于羊村站1956-2003年的月實(shí)測平均流量數(shù)據(jù),利用MK法進(jìn)行的雅江中游水文變化的檢驗(yàn)分析。分析結(jié)果表明,1956-2003年,雅江干流徑流有增加的趨勢,但統(tǒng)計(jì)量未通過顯著性檢驗(yàn),說明趨勢性變化不明顯;根據(jù)MK突變檢驗(yàn)顯示,雅江中游1969年之后UF值開始明顯下降,1997年之后UF值開始明顯上升,相應(yīng)的累計(jì)距平法檢驗(yàn)也發(fā)現(xiàn)突變年份發(fā)生在1959年、1964年、1987年和1997年,其中1997年絕對值最大。為預(yù)測徑流,本文采用了三個(gè)水文模型對雅江中游流域的徑流進(jìn)行模擬,包括三水源XAJ、SIMHYD模型和SMAR模型;對水文模型進(jìn)行參數(shù)優(yōu)化時(shí)使用SCE-UA算法。結(jié)果表明,三種模型模擬精度差別不大,以R2評價(jià),XAJ模型的精度最高,其次為SIMHYD模型,SMAR模擬精度最低;以RE評價(jià),XAJ模型模擬結(jié)果與實(shí)測流量的誤差最小,精度最高,SMAR次之,SIMHYD模型模擬結(jié)果稍差。最后,利用率定好的三種模型進(jìn)行徑流預(yù)測,并針對藏木水電站10月下旬下閘蓄水的設(shè)計(jì)流量值,給出了各自的推薦方案。雅江地勢高聳,人煙稀少,水文資料極度缺乏。本文利用有限的實(shí)測資料結(jié)合數(shù)學(xué)方法和水文模型開展雅江徑流變化分析及預(yù)測,將有豐富相關(guān)區(qū)域的水文水資源研究,為區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和生態(tài)保護(hù)提供積累。
[Abstract]:The Brahmaputra River (hereinafter referred to as the Yajiang River) is the largest river in Tibet and the highest elevation river in the world, with an area of about 240,000 km2. The water and energy reserves are huge. According to the 5th Tibet work Symposium, the goal of building Tibet into an important energy base for the country is required. The exploitation of water and energy resources in the Ya River Basin will become one of the key areas in the construction of hydropower projects in China. At present, the section from Yangcun Hydrological Station in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River to the Gacha Gorge has been planned for Bayu, Dagu, Street needs and Tibetan Wood. Among them, the Zangmu Hydropower Station, which began construction in 2010, is the first hydropower station in the main stream of the Yajiang River and the largest hydropower station under construction in Tibet. The total installed capacity is 510,000 kw. according to the construction target of the first generating unit of Zangmu Hydropower Station from the end of October 2014 to early November, the power station plans to select the machine to lower the sluice to store water on October 2014. The design conditions are as follows: 6th sluice gates under QT 839m3 / s for sealing and plugging the sluice gate. In order to reasonably select the storage date of the lower gate of Zangmu Hydropower Station, it is also necessary for the future operation of the hydropower station. It is necessary to simulate and forecast the runoff of the Tibetan wood section (Yangcun station) in the middle reaches of the Yalu Zangbo River. Based on the monthly measured average discharge data of Yangcun Station from 1956 to 2003, this paper uses MK method to test and analyze the hydrological changes in the middle reaches of the Yajiang River. There is an increasing trend in the runoff of the main stream of the Yajiang River, but the statistical quantity does not pass the significance test, which shows that the trend change is not obvious. According to the MK mutation test, the UF value began to decrease obviously after 1969 in the middle reaches of Yajiang River, and the UF value began to increase obviously after 1997. The corresponding accumulative anomaly test also found that the mutation year occurred in 1959, 1964, 1987 and 1987, in which #date鈪，

本文編號：1465754