發(fā)布時間：2018-01-14 21:07

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：湖北省人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對經(jīng)濟增長的影響及對策研究　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu) 經(jīng)濟增長 協(xié)調(diào)性 貢獻率

【摘要】：人口問題是影響社會經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展的首要問題，人口結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)變直接影響區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，是制定區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展規(guī)劃的重要考慮指標之一，能否有效解決人口結(jié)構(gòu)問題直接影響著區(qū)域經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展與否。 隨著經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展、醫(yī)療服務(wù)水平的不斷提高和計劃生育政策實施，，我國的人口規(guī)模也就是人口增長率已經(jīng)得到有效控制，人們關(guān)注的焦點逐漸由人口規(guī)模轉(zhuǎn)向人口結(jié)構(gòu)的研究。人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的前提，也是21世紀我們研究人口問題的核心。尤其是，2013年兩會期間的決議,人口和計劃生育委員會被撤銷,多地對二胎政策有所放開。 不同的年齡階段具有不同的經(jīng)濟行為，所以人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的變動，必然通過影響一系列中間變量最終影響到經(jīng)濟增長。本文在系統(tǒng)闡述研究人口結(jié)構(gòu)問題的背景和意義的前提下，首先對已有的國內(nèi)外文獻進行梳理綜述。本文的主體主要是從人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟增長的理論出發(fā)，系統(tǒng)地從人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)影響儲蓄、投資和國際收支，從而間接影響經(jīng)濟增長的三駕馬車，分析了人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化與經(jīng)濟增長的作用機理。然后通過搜集湖北省歷年人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化的數(shù)據(jù)，比如人口總量、性別比、出生率、死亡率、自然增長率、各年齡階段所占比重、撫養(yǎng)比等方面與全國數(shù)據(jù)進行比較，比較全面總結(jié)了湖北省人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化，并分析了湖北省人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)未來的發(fā)展趨勢和變化原因。論文的最主要部分就是定量分析湖北省人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展是否是相互協(xié)調(diào)的，實證表明湖北省的65歲以上人口的增長，和全國水平相比，我們屬于基本協(xié)調(diào)型，加之莫龍等人的研究已經(jīng)表明，我們國家的整體情況相對于世界發(fā)達國家來說就是超前型，所以湖北省的人口老齡化相對于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展來說是比較超前的。另一方面就是通過定量研究湖北省勞動年齡人口對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率，結(jié)果顯示湖北勞動力人口對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率2000-2013年貢獻率逐步增加，但是和全國總體水平相比，還是有較大差距，并且有逐漸拉大的趨勢。最后結(jié)合湖北省實際提出切實可行的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Population problem is the most important problem affecting the sustainable development of social economy. The change of population structure directly affects the development of regional economy and is one of the important consideration indexes in formulating regional economic development plan. Whether the population structure can be effectively solved directly affects the sustainable development of regional economy. With the development of economy and society, the continuous improvement of medical service level and the implementation of family planning policy, the population size of our country, that is, population growth rate, has been effectively controlled. The focus of attention has gradually shifted from the population scale to the study of population structure. The coordinated development of population structure and economy is the premise of economic development and the core of our research on population problem in 21th century. In 2013, the National people's Congress and Family Planning Commission were abolished, and the policy of two-child was liberalized. Different ages have different economic behaviors, so the age structure of the population changes. Inevitably through the influence of a series of intermediate variables will ultimately affect economic growth. This paper systematically describes the background and significance of the study of population structure. The main body of this paper is mainly from the age structure of population and economic growth theory, systematically from the age structure of the population to affect savings, investment and balance of payments. Thus indirectly affect the economic growth of the troika, analyzed the mechanism of population structure changes and economic growth. Then through the collection of past years of population structure changes in Hubei Province data, such as the total population, sex ratio. The birth rate, death rate, natural growth rate, the proportion of each age stage, the dependency ratio and so on are compared with the national data, and the changes of population structure in Hubei Province are summarized comprehensively. The main part of the paper is to analyze whether the population age structure and economic development of Hubei Province is coordinated. Empirical results show that the growth of the population over 65 years of age in Hubei Province, compared with the national level, we belong to the basic coordination type, in addition to the study of Moron and others has shown. The overall situation in our country is more advanced than that of the developed countries in the world. Therefore, the population aging in Hubei Province is more advanced than the economic development. On the other hand, the contribution rate of the working-age population to economic growth in Hubei Province is studied quantitatively. The results show that the contribution rate of Hubei labor force population to economic growth gradually increased from 2000 to 2013, but compared with the overall level of the country, there is still a big gap. And there is a tendency to expand gradually. Finally, practical policy suggestions are put forward combined with the actual situation in Hubei Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：C924.24;F127

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