本文關(guān)鍵詞：面向低碳發(fā)展的土地利用情景模擬　出處：《河南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 土地利用變化 碳排放 CA 西雙版納

【摘要】：人類(lèi)活動(dòng)造成大氣碳含量增加導(dǎo)致的氣候變暖及其造成的一系列極端惡劣環(huán)境氣候?yàn)?zāi)害，已經(jīng)越來(lái)越受到國(guó)際社會(huì)的關(guān)注。研究土地利用/土地覆被變化的格局及原因,并探索由此引起的碳排放效應(yīng)，對(duì)不同情景下的土地利用數(shù)量及空間結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行模擬，對(duì)制定低碳目標(biāo)下的土地利用政策具有重要意義。 熱帶雨林是全球重要的碳庫(kù)，大面積的熱帶森林被砍伐所導(dǎo)致的碳排放問(wèn)題，也受到學(xué)術(shù)界的廣泛關(guān)注。西雙版納地區(qū)擁有我國(guó)面積最大的熱帶森林，全區(qū)森林植被碳貯量達(dá)64.10Tg,平均碳密度值為51.13t/hm2。1965年到1995年，全州毀林開(kāi)荒，增加耕地，大面積種植橡膠林，導(dǎo)致全區(qū)天然林面積大幅下降。天然林覆蓋率從原有的46.46%將至27.80%。這些土地覆被變化對(duì)本地區(qū)的碳平衡具有重要影響。研究土地利用變化對(duì)碳排放的影響，并通過(guò)調(diào)整土地利用政策實(shí)現(xiàn)減少碳排放的目的，對(duì)于我國(guó)發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)，尋求可持續(xù)發(fā)展道路具有重要意義。 本文在IPCC2006和土地利用碳排放研究的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了綜合土地利用碳排放核算方法；在對(duì)土地利用變化模型研究的基礎(chǔ)上，建立Logistic-CA-Markov模型，實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)土地利用的情景模擬；并將兩者有機(jī)結(jié)合起來(lái)，形成了面向低碳發(fā)展的土地利用情景模擬。使用1999-2007年的數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)西雙版納地區(qū)1999-2007年土地利用變化碳排放效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了分析，對(duì)西雙版納地區(qū)不同土地類(lèi)型的碳源碳匯效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析，分經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景、生態(tài)安全情景和綜合發(fā)展情景對(duì)西雙版納地區(qū)的土地利用變化進(jìn)行了模擬，并對(duì)三種結(jié)果進(jìn)行了碳效應(yīng)分析。本文主要結(jié)論如下： 1.構(gòu)建了面向低碳發(fā)展的土地利用情景模擬研究框架�？蚣苡赏恋乩锰寂欧藕屯恋乩们榫澳M兩個(gè)子模塊組成，土地利用碳排放模塊通過(guò)多時(shí)相的土地利用數(shù)據(jù)，分保持類(lèi)型的植被碳排放、改變類(lèi)型的植被碳排放和土壤碳排放三個(gè)部分核算土地利用變化的碳排放，使用社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)核算土地載體上的碳排放；土地利用情景模擬模塊使用logistic回歸和Markov模型，結(jié)合CA模型，以土地利用轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣為基礎(chǔ)，，使用logistic回歸分析辨別多種因素對(duì)土地利用變化的影響，并對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)移概率進(jìn)行修正，分析不同情景下土地利用變化的碳排放效應(yīng)。通過(guò)案例研究證明這種研究框架具有理論和實(shí)踐意義。 2.對(duì)1999-2007年西雙版納地區(qū)土地利用碳排放進(jìn)行了核算。研究期內(nèi)西雙版納地區(qū)共吸收碳5500526t，其中保持類(lèi)型的植被碳吸收7740429t，改變類(lèi)型的植被碳排放377410.1t，土壤碳吸收2000310t，能源消費(fèi)碳排放3862803.604t。從土地利用類(lèi)型上看，發(fā)生在林地區(qū)域的碳排放最多，發(fā)生在建設(shè)用地的碳排放強(qiáng)度最大。 3.對(duì)西雙版納地區(qū)土地利用進(jìn)行了情景模擬，結(jié)果顯示：三種情境下西雙版納地區(qū)天然林面積均呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)，其中經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景下降趨勢(shì)最快，平均每年減少62566ha，生態(tài)安全情景面積下降趨勢(shì)最小，綜合發(fā)展情景處于兩種情景之間；經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景下經(jīng)濟(jì)林增長(zhǎng)速度最快，平均每年增加63091ha，生態(tài)安全情景增速最慢，綜合發(fā)展情景處于兩者之間；耕地、草地、建設(shè)用地變化不明顯。 4.對(duì)西雙版納地區(qū)土地利用碳減排潛力進(jìn)行了研究，三種情景中生態(tài)安全情景能夠有效的減少碳排放，各種土地類(lèi)型的碳排放強(qiáng)度均有所下降，表明嚴(yán)格控制下的土地政策能夠有效減少碳排放，但是需要犧牲大量的耕地、建設(shè)用地和經(jīng)濟(jì)林。綜合發(fā)展情景下，碳排放較生態(tài)安全情景多，但是土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)更加合理，能夠有效兼顧區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和碳減排目標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:Human activities have increased atmospheric carbon content caused by climate warming and caused a series of extreme climate disasters, has been more and more attention by the international community. Study on the pattern and causes of land of land use / land cover change, and explore the resulting effect on carbon emissions, land use under different scenarios of quantity and space simulate the structure, is of great significance to develop low carbon targets under the land use policy.
Tropical rain forest is an important global carbon pool, a large area of tropical deforestation caused by carbon emissions, also attracted widespread attention in academic circles. In Xishuangbanna area, China has the largest area of tropical forest, the forest vegetation carbon storage was 64.10Tg, the average carbon density was 51.13t/hm2.1965 years to 1995, the state of deforestation increased, cultivated land, planting a large area of rubber plantation, led to the region's natural forest area dropped significantly. The natural forest coverage rate from the original 46.46% 27.80%. is approaching these land cover change has important influence on the carbon balance in the region. The research of land use change on carbon emissions, and through the adjustment of land use policies to reduce carbon emissions for the purpose of developing low-carbon economy in China, is of great significance for the sustainable development of the road.
Based on IPCC2006 and carbon emission of land use on the proposed comprehensive land use carbon emission accounting methods; based on the land use change model research, establish Logistic-CA-Markov model, simulate the land use scenarios; and combines them together, forming a land use scenario for low carbon development simulation using the data of 1999-2007, 1999-2007 in the Xishuangbanna area of land use change in carbon emissions of the carbon source and sink effect of different land types in Xishuangbanna area were analyzed. The situation of economic development, ecological security situation and comprehensive development scenarios to simulate the land use change in Xishuangbanna area, and on the three the results of carbon effect analysis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
1. construction land use scenarios for low carbon development simulation framework by the carbon emission of land utilization and land use scenarios simulation of two sub modules, land use and carbon emissions through multi module land use data is divided, keeping vegetation carbon emissions, changing the types of vegetation carbon emissions and carbon emissions three a part of accounting of land use change in carbon emissions, the use of social and economic data of carbon emissions account for the land carrier; land use scenario simulation module using logistic regression and Markov model, combined with the CA model, the land use transfer matrix as the basis, effects of various factors on identifying changes in land use regression analysis using logistic, and the transfer probability is modified, analysis of different scenarios of land use change in carbon emission effect. Through the case study proves that this framework has theoretical and Practical significance.
2. of the land use in Xishuangbanna area 1999-2007 carbon emissions were checked. The study period in Xishuangbanna total absorption of carbon 5500526t, which keep the vegetation carbon absorption type 7740429t, the type of change of vegetation carbon emissions 377410.1t, soil carbon absorption 2000310t, carbon emissions from energy consumption of 3862803.604t. from the perspective of the land-use types, most occurred in the forest region carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity in construction land.
3. of the land use in Xishuangbanna area to simulate, the result showed that three kinds of situation in Xishuangbanna area under natural forest area showed a downward trend, which decreased the fastest economic development situation, the average annual decrease of 62566ha, the ecological security situation area decreased the minimum, comprehensive development situation between the two scenarios of economic forest economic development situation; under the fastest growth rate, an average annual increase of 63091ha, the ecological security situation the slowest growth rate, the comprehensive development situation in between; cultivated land, grassland, construction land use change is not obvious.
4. of the carbon emission reduction of land use in Xishuangbanna area potential were studied, three kinds of ecological security situation in the scene can effectively reduce carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity of various land types decreased, indicated that under the strict control of land policy can effectively reduce carbon emissions, but the need to sacrifice a lot of arable land and the construction of economic forest. The comprehensive development situation, carbon emissions is the ecological security situation, but the land use structure is more reasonable, which can effectively balance the regional economic development and carbon emission reduction targets.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F301;X24

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