本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國區(qū)域碳排放差異分析及減排路徑研究　出處：《東北大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 區(qū)域碳排放 泰爾指數(shù) 灰色關(guān)聯(lián)模型 空間計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué) 減排路徑

【摘要】：世界各國之間的不均衡發(fā)展導(dǎo)致的碳博弈成為國際上碳減排的難題,碳排放差異成為解決碳排放問題的焦點(diǎn)內(nèi)容。通過碳排放的差異分析可以評估各區(qū)域的減排工作成果和未來的減排潛力,能夠?yàn)榻档吞寂欧?促進(jìn)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供理論依據(jù)。中國作為世界上碳排放最大的國家,不同區(qū)域碳排放存在顯著的差異,根據(jù)不同區(qū)域的碳排放影響因素作用機(jī)制不同,探索基于不同影響因素的減排路徑,已經(jīng)成為促進(jìn)區(qū)域低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的重要任務(wù)。因此,科學(xué)地對中國區(qū)域碳排放差異問題進(jìn)行提煉,分析中國區(qū)域碳排放差異,研究碳排放的收斂性及其影響因素,尋求具有針對性的減排路徑,對于我國積極降低碳排放,實(shí)現(xiàn)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型具有重要的理論價(jià)值和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文對中國區(qū)域碳排放差異及減排路徑問題進(jìn)行了探討,主要研究工作概況如下：(1)核算2000-2012年中國不同區(qū)域碳排放,利用泰爾指數(shù)方法測算不同區(qū)域?qū)μ寂欧挪町惖呢暙I(xiàn)率,對比分析不同區(qū)域人均碳排放差異和碳排放強(qiáng)度差異的變化趨勢。首先參考國際組織發(fā)布的中國碳排放數(shù)據(jù),確定計(jì)量中國區(qū)域碳排放方法,測算2000-2012年中國30個(gè)省域和三大區(qū)域的碳排放；然后采用泰爾指數(shù)研究方法對中國區(qū)域的碳排放差異進(jìn)行測算,分別基于人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長權(quán)重對碳排放差異進(jìn)行分析,分析不同區(qū)域?qū)^(qū)域碳排放差異的貢獻(xiàn)率；最后對比分析不同權(quán)重下的碳排放差異,即人均碳排放差異和碳排放強(qiáng)度差異的變化趨勢。(2)針對我國區(qū)域碳排放的收斂性,分別建立碳排放σ收斂、絕對p收斂和條件p收斂模型,分析不同影響因素對碳排放收斂性的作用。將新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論中的收斂假說引入到碳排放差異性分析中,針對中國區(qū)域碳排放差異的收斂狀況進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,分析中國及東部、中部和西部三大區(qū)域碳排放水平的σ收斂、絕對p收斂和條件p收斂,分別從人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、城鎮(zhèn)化率、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源價(jià)格和國際貿(mào)易七個(gè)因素考察,不同影響因素對全國及三大區(qū)域碳排放條件p收斂的作用效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果顯示中國碳排放存在總體發(fā)散,局部收斂的特征,不同區(qū)域范圍都具有絕對p收斂和條件p收斂的趨勢,并進(jìn)一步探索了不同區(qū)域碳排放條件β收斂不同驅(qū)動因素。(3)針對中國不同區(qū)域碳排放差異形成因素,建立碳排放灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度模型,驗(yàn)證不同影響因素對不同區(qū)域碳排放作用的差異性。通過建立碳排放灰色絕對關(guān)聯(lián)度、灰色相對關(guān)聯(lián)度和灰色綜合關(guān)聯(lián)度模型,測算了人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、城鎮(zhèn)化率、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源價(jià)格和國際貿(mào)易七個(gè)影響因素對不同區(qū)域的碳排放灰色絕對關(guān)聯(lián)度、灰色相對關(guān)聯(lián)度和灰色綜合關(guān)聯(lián)度,根據(jù)中國不同區(qū)域的發(fā)展階段與不同影響因素的碳排放關(guān)聯(lián)度結(jié)果,判斷不同區(qū)域發(fā)展程度的碳排放影響因素作用機(jī)制是不同的,發(fā)展階段相同的不同區(qū)域碳排放影響因素是相似的。(4)針對碳排放的空間相關(guān)性,檢驗(yàn)區(qū)域碳排放的空間依賴性、集群性和時(shí)空躍遷路徑,建立考慮空間效應(yīng)的面板數(shù)據(jù)空間計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,對碳排放的影響因素問題進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。通過全域空間自相關(guān)檢驗(yàn)分析我國區(qū)域碳排放的空間依賴性和時(shí)空躍遷路徑,局域空間自相關(guān)檢驗(yàn)分析空間集聚性,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)中國區(qū)域碳排放存在顯著的正相關(guān),驗(yàn)證中國碳排放具有顯著的空間依賴性、集聚性和路徑依賴性的特征。進(jìn)一步通過建立可拓展的隨機(jī)性的環(huán)境影響評估模型進(jìn)行研究,基于普通面板數(shù)據(jù)模型、空間滯后面板數(shù)據(jù)模型、空間杜賓面板面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,從人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、城鎮(zhèn)化率、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源價(jià)格和國際貿(mào)易七個(gè)影響因素視域,對區(qū)域碳排放的不同影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,驗(yàn)證了碳排放及其影響因素的空間溢出性,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、城鎮(zhèn)化率、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和國際貿(mào)易是碳排放增加的主要因素,應(yīng)該進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)技術(shù)進(jìn)步對降低碳排放的作用,不同影響因素對東部、中部和西部區(qū)域的碳排放作用效應(yīng)不同,應(yīng)該注意碳排放空間聯(lián)動機(jī)制,采取有區(qū)別的減排策略。(5)根據(jù)碳排放空間聯(lián)動機(jī)制,針對不同碳排放影響因素提出不同區(qū)域的減排路徑。參考前面幾章的研究結(jié)論,分別從人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、城鎮(zhèn)化率、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源價(jià)格和國際貿(mào)易七個(gè)不同視域,根據(jù)不同區(qū)域的碳排放影響因素的不同作用,提出不同區(qū)域具有針對性的減排路徑。本文提出的中國區(qū)域碳排放差異分析及減排路徑問題的研究,進(jìn)一步完善低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的相關(guān)理論,為實(shí)現(xiàn)中國區(qū)域碳減排理論與方法提供借鑒和指導(dǎo)。本文的研究結(jié)果不僅可以輔助國家政府部門在低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下制定恰當(dāng)?shù)臏p排政策,也能夠?yàn)椴煌瑓^(qū)域?qū)崿F(xiàn)減排目標(biāo)提供一定的啟示,符合我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)劃和長遠(yuǎn)利益,對推動區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)低碳發(fā)展和實(shí)現(xiàn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)整體低碳轉(zhuǎn)型具有重要的意義。
[Abstract]:Carbon game unbalanced development between the countries in the world to become the international carbon emission reduction problem, difference of carbon emissions has become the focus of content to solve the problem of carbon emissions. Carbon emissions through difference analysis can evaluate the regional emission reduction work and future emission reduction potential, to reduce carbon emissions, and provide a theoretical basis for the promotion of low-carbon economy the development of China. As the world's largest country of carbon emissions, carbon emissions in different regions are different, according to the effects of carbon emissions in different regions of the factors of different mechanisms, explore the path of emission reduction on multi factor, has become an important task to promote the coordinated development of regional low-carbon economy. Therefore, refining of regional carbon emissions the difference China scientifically, analysis of regional carbon emissions Chinese differences, factors of convergence and its influence on carbon emissions, seek targeted emission reduction Road Size, for China to reduce carbon emissions has important theoretical value and practical significance of low-carbon economy. This paper discusses the differences of regional carbon emissions and emission reduction Chinese path problem, the main contents are as follows: (1) Chinese different regional carbon emissions accounting for 2000-2012 years, using Theil index calculation method in different regions contribution to the carbon emission rate difference, comparative analysis of trends of the per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity difference difference in different regions. The first international organization released China carbon emissions data, determine the measurement Chinese regional carbon emissions calculation method, 2000-2012 Chinese 30 provinces and three regional carbon emissions; and then using the Theil index study on the method of regional differences on carbon emissions Chinese was calculated respectively based on population and economic growth to analyze the weight difference of carbon emissions, analysis of different regions On the regional differences of carbon emissions contribution rate; and a comparative analysis of differences of carbon emissions under different weights, the change trend of per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity difference difference. (2) according to the convergence of regional carbon emissions in China, established carbon emissions convergence, absolute convergence and conditional convergence of P P model analysis the different factors on carbon emissions. The convergence of the new classical theory of economic growth in the convergence hypothesis analysis is introduced to the carbon emissions differences, makes the empirical research on the convergence of regional carbon emissions China difference analysis, Chinese convergence in the East and central and western region of the three levels of carbon emissions, the absolute convergence of P and the conditions of P convergence, respectively from the population, economic growth, technological progress, industrial structure, urbanization rate, energy prices and international trade effects of seven factors, the different factors for the national and three regional carbon emissions p The effect of convergence. The results show Chinese carbon emissions are the overall features of local convergence, divergence, different regions have absolute convergence and conditional convergence of P P trend, and to further explore the different regional carbon emissions conditional convergence for different driving factors. (3) the formation of needle factors on carbon emissions in different regions of Chinese differences. A carbon grey correlation model, validation of different influence factors on different regional carbon emissions of carbon emissions. By establishing the grey absolute correlation degree, grey correlation degree and grey comprehensive correlation degree model, calculated the population, economic growth, technological progress, industrial structure, urbanization rate, energy prices and international trade the influence of seven factors on carbon emissions in different regions of the grey absolute correlation degree, grey correlation degree and grey comprehensive correlation degree, according to the different regional development stage and different China Effect of carbon emission factors of the results, determine the mechanism of carbon emission factors of different degree of regional development is different, different factors affect regional carbon emissions in the same stage of development is similar. (4) according to the spatial correlation of carbon emissions, carbon emissions inspection area spatial dependence, cluster and space-time transition path the establishment of panel data, the spatial econometric model considering spatial effect, empirical analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis of regional carbon emission in China's spatial dependence and spatial transition path, local spatial autocorrelation analysis of spatial agglomeration of regional carbon emissions, the study found that there is a significant Chinese positive correlation, Chinese verification of carbon emissions has significant spatial dependence, agglomeration and path dependence. Further through the establishment of stochastic development Study on the environmental impact assessment model, common panel data model based on panel data model of spatial data spatial lag, Durbin panel model, from the population, economic growth, technological progress, industrial structure, urbanization rate, energy prices and international trade seven factors perspective, makes an empirical analysis on different factors of regional carbon emissions, carbon emissions and verify the effect of spatial spillover factors, economic growth, urbanization rate, industrial structure and international trade are the main factors of carbon emissions increase, we should further strengthen the technological progress to reduce carbon emissions, the different factors on the eastern, central and western regions of the effect of different carbon emissions that should pay attention to carbon emissions spatial linkage mechanism, adopt different emission reduction strategies. (5) according to the carbon spatial linkage mechanism for different carbon emissions influence factors and put forward different The conclusion of regional emission reduction path. The reference of the previous chapter, separately from the population, economic growth, technological progress, industrial structure, urbanization rate, energy prices and international trade seven different perspective, according to the different role of carbon emissions in different regions of the influence factors, put forward different areas with path. The research for emission reduction the regional differences of carbon emissions Chinese proposed analysis and reduction path problem, further improve the relevant theory of the development of low carbon economy, and provide the reference for the realization of China regional carbon emission reduction theory and method. The results of this study can not only assist government departments to formulate appropriate emission reduction policies in the country under the background of low carbon economy, can also provide some inspiration to achieve targets in different regions, in line with the economic development plan of our country and long-term interests, to promote low-carbon development of regional economy and realize China's economic integration The transformation of body low carbon is of great significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F124.5

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