【摘要】：我國(guó)糧食短缺、糧食價(jià)格波動(dòng)導(dǎo)致人們生活貧困、饑餓、營(yíng)養(yǎng)不良等一系列問(wèn)題。并且,我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)面臨著嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn),“農(nóng)地非農(nóng)化”已成為我國(guó)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和糧食生產(chǎn)能力提高的基礎(chǔ)性障礙。對(duì)此,黨中央不僅一直將農(nóng)業(yè)中的糧食生產(chǎn)作為工作重中之重,而且高度重視糧食生產(chǎn)能力提高。本研究主要分為三部分。第一部分,引言。第二部分,描述我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)能力的概念及三個(gè)表征要素,表征要素中主要是從我國(guó)糧食播種面積、糧食生產(chǎn)數(shù)量、周期波動(dòng)、糧食生產(chǎn)質(zhì)量等角度進(jìn)行闡述。我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)能力的因素影響分析是從投入和非投入兩個(gè)角度進(jìn)行闡述,用糧食安全理論、柯布——道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)理論和產(chǎn)業(yè)組織理論對(duì)我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)能力的影響因素理論體系構(gòu)成進(jìn)行概括分析,用1X表示農(nóng)業(yè)有效灌溉面積,2X表示化肥施用量,3X表示農(nóng)村用電量,4X表示農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動(dòng)力,5X表示糧食作物播種面積,6X表示農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)人員投入,7X表示成災(zāi)面積,8X表示糧食生產(chǎn)勞動(dòng)力,9X表示政策非投入變量作為我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)能力的影響因素9個(gè)指標(biāo),運(yùn)用主成分分析和C-D生產(chǎn)函數(shù)對(duì)我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)能力的影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。提出了提高我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)能力的對(duì)策分析。一是,確保糧食播種面積穩(wěn)定;二是,重視農(nóng)民人力資本投入;三是,鼓勵(lì)資金投入對(duì)糧食生產(chǎn)能力的支撐;四是,提升物質(zhì)投入水平和農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化水平;五是,改造傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè),積極推進(jìn)現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展;六是,注重水、土等自然資源的合理開(kāi)發(fā)利用效能。第三部分,給出本研究結(jié)論。結(jié)果表明2X化肥施用量(0.988)和5X糧食作物播種面積(0.990)是我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)能力的9個(gè)指標(biāo)體系影響因素中比較重要的突出因子。其他影響因素1X農(nóng)業(yè)有效灌溉面積,3X農(nóng)村用電量和8X糧食生產(chǎn)勞動(dòng)力等作為我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)能力影響因素指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)因子,卻處于隱性影響狀態(tài),也是值得高度重視。
[Abstract]:Food shortage and food price fluctuation lead to a series of problems, such as poverty, hunger, malnutrition and so on. Moreover, China's grain production is facing a severe challenge. "farmland conversion" has become a basic obstacle to the growth of rural economy and the improvement of grain production capacity. In this regard, the CPC Central Committee has not only attached great importance to grain production in agriculture, but also attached great importance to the improvement of grain production capacity. This research is divided into three parts. The first part, introduction. The second part describes the concept of China's grain production capacity and three characterization elements, which are mainly described from the aspects of grain planting area, grain production quantity, cycle fluctuation, grain production quality and so on. The factors affecting China's grain production capacity are analyzed from the perspective of input and non-input, and the theory of food security is used. The theory of Cobb-Douglas production function and the theory of industrial organization are used to generalize and analyze the theoretical system of influencing factors of grain production capacity in China. The effective irrigated area of agriculture is represented by 1X, and the amount of fertilizer is applied by 2X. 3X for rural electricity consumption, 4X for total power of agricultural machinery, 5X for planting area of grain crops, 6X for input from agricultural technicians, 7X for disaster area, 8X for grain production labor force, 9X indicated that the policy non-input variable was taken as the nine indexes of the influencing factors of China's grain production capacity. The principal component analysis and C-D production function were used to analyze the influencing factors of China's grain production capacity. The countermeasures to improve China's grain production capacity are put forward. First, to ensure the stability of grain sown area; second, to attach importance to the human capital input of farmers; third, to encourage capital investment to support grain production capacity; fourth, to raise the level of material input and agricultural mechanization; Fifth, to reform traditional agriculture and actively promote the development of modern agriculture; sixthly, to pay attention to the rational development and utilization of natural resources such as water and soil. In the third part, the conclusion of this study is given. The results showed that the amount of 2X fertilizer (0.988) and the sowing area of 5X grain crop (0.990) were the most important factors affecting the grain production capacity in China. Other influencing factors 1X effective irrigation area, 3X rural electricity consumption and 8X grain production labor force are the evaluation factors of the influencing factors of China's grain production capacity, but they are in a recessive state, which is also worthy of high attention.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢輕工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F326.11

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