本文選題：蔬菜價格 + 蔬菜供給��； 參考：《云南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：蔬菜與居民生活息息相關(guān),是廣大消費者的生活必需品,不僅是農(nóng)民增收的重要來源,也在很大程度上決定了居民的營養(yǎng)水平和膳食結(jié)構(gòu)。蔬菜產(chǎn)業(yè)作為云南一大朝陽產(chǎn)業(yè),“十二五”期間已取得一定成果,為進一步促進蔬菜產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,增加農(nóng)民收入,“十三五”期間,省委省政府出臺了《云南高原特色農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃(2016-2020年)》,進一步推進蔬菜等特色產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,促進農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。然而,近年來受不同因素的影響,蔬菜價格暴漲暴跌的現(xiàn)象屢屢出現(xiàn),嚴重影響了蔬菜生產(chǎn)者與消費者生產(chǎn)生活,既增加了菜農(nóng)的種植風(fēng)險,不利于農(nóng)民增收致富,也給廣大消費者帶來了巨大的經(jīng)濟壓力。因此,研究分析云南省蔬菜價格波動的特征、趨勢及影響因素,對于引導(dǎo)蔬菜產(chǎn)業(yè)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展,促進農(nóng)民增收,改善居民消費水平,維持經(jīng)濟社會穩(wěn)定具有重要意義。本文在借鑒國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對蔬菜價格波動研究的基礎(chǔ)上,以均衡價格理論、交易成本理論等相關(guān)理論為指導(dǎo),采用文獻研究法、實地訪談法、比較分析法、數(shù)學(xué)模型研究法等多種方法相結(jié)合展開分析。首先,選取了2010-2014年大白菜、油菜、黃瓜、西紅柿、豇豆、土豆6種不同蔬菜品種的月度價格進行描述性統(tǒng)計分析,分析蔬菜的季節(jié)性波動特征,之后對2003-2014年云南、全國、山東三個地區(qū)蔬菜零售價格指數(shù)進行描述性統(tǒng)計分析,分析蔬菜的年際波動特征。其次,從供給、需求和其他因素三個方面出發(fā),從理論層面分別對云南蔬菜價格波動的影響因素進行闡述分析,并在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,選取了7個比較有代表性的因子進行因子分析,通過計算因子得分及其綜合排序,找出導(dǎo)致蔬菜價格頻繁波動最主要的因素。最后,根據(jù)理論與實證分析結(jié)果,提出有針對性的穩(wěn)定云南蔬菜價格波動的對策建議。通過以上研究,結(jié)果顯示:(1)價格波動特征:從季節(jié)特征角度考慮,發(fā)現(xiàn)大白菜、油菜的季節(jié)波動規(guī)律相類似,呈“n”型;黃瓜、西紅柿、豇豆的波動特征相類似,呈“U”型,土豆價格波動相對比較平穩(wěn),除年初波動較激烈外,其余月份變化較小;從年際特征角度考慮,總體看來,2003-2014年云南省蔬菜價格呈逐年上漲趨勢,且云南與山東的年度價格波動特征大體上是一樣的,與全國相比存在一定的差異;(2)理論分析結(jié)果表明:供給因素中成本、氣候、產(chǎn)量等因素,需求因素中人口、收入水平、出口量等,其他因素中政策、流通狀況、信息差異、地區(qū)差異及蔬菜自身特征等因素均在一定程度上影響了云南省蔬菜價格波動,供求狀況對蔬菜的價格波動具有較大影響,政策、流通狀況及信息等的影響也不容小覷,但影響蔬菜價格波動的重要因素是供給因素;(3)因子分析結(jié)果表明:蔬菜種植面積、蔬菜總產(chǎn)量、地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值是蔬菜供給能力的體現(xiàn);城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭人均可支配收入、地區(qū)總?cè)丝谧罱K體現(xiàn)的蔬菜的需求狀況;農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)資料價格指數(shù)是蔬菜生產(chǎn)成本的體現(xiàn),鮮菜居民消費價格指數(shù)最終體現(xiàn)了居民購買蔬菜的成本。通過計算因子得分及其綜合排序發(fā)現(xiàn),導(dǎo)致云南省蔬菜價格頻繁波動的主要因素按其影響程度大小排序依次為:蔬菜種植面積、地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值、蔬菜總產(chǎn)量、城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭人均可支配收入、地區(qū)總?cè)丝�、居民菜消費價格指數(shù)、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)資料價格指數(shù)。種植面積、地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值、蔬菜總產(chǎn)量對蔬菜價格的影響尤為突出。(4)穩(wěn)定云南省蔬菜價格的措施包括:保障蔬菜有效供給;引導(dǎo)消費者合理需求;強化蔬菜政策支持;完善蔬菜市場監(jiān)管體系。
[Abstract]:Vegetables are closely related to the life of the residents. It is a necessary necessities for the majority of consumers. It is not only an important source of increasing farmers' income, but also a great measure of the nutritional level and dietary structure of the residents. As a major sunrise industry in Yunnan, the vegetable industry has obtained certain results during the "12th Five-Year", in order to further promote the development of the vegetable industry. In the period of "13th Five-Year", the provincial government promulgated the planning of modern industrial development of the characteristic agriculture of the Yunnan plateau (2016-2020 years), further promoting the development of special industries such as vegetables and promoting the development of agricultural and rural economy. However, in recent years, influenced by different factors, the phenomenon of the soaring and tumbling of vegetable prices has occurred repeatedly and severely. It seriously affects the production and life of vegetable producers and consumers, not only increases the risk of vegetable farmers' planting, is not conducive to increasing farmers' income and getting rich, but also brings great economic pressure to the consumers. Therefore, the study and analysis of the characteristics, trends and influencing factors of the fluctuation of vegetable prices in Yunnan province will guide the sustainable and healthy development of the vegetable industry and promote the farmers. It is of great significance to increase the income, improve the consumption level of the residents and maintain the stability of the economy and society. On the basis of the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the fluctuation of the price of vegetables, this paper uses the theory of equilibrium price and the theory of transaction cost, and uses the literature research method, the field interview method, the comparative analysis method, the mathematical model research method and so on. Firstly, the monthly price of 6 different vegetable varieties of Chinese cabbage, rape, cucumber, tomato, cowpea and potato were selected and analyzed, and the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of vegetables were analyzed. Then the vegetable retail price index of 2003-2014 years in Yunnan, the whole country and Shandong, Shandong, 2003-2014 years, was described in descriptive statistics. Analysis and analysis of the characteristics of the interannual fluctuation of vegetables. Secondly, from three aspects of supply, demand and other factors, the influence factors of the fluctuation of vegetable prices in Yunnan are expounded and analyzed from the theoretical level. On the basis of theoretical analysis, 7 representative factors are selected to carry out factor analysis through the calculation factor score. And to find out the main factors that lead to frequent fluctuation of vegetable prices. Finally, according to the theoretical and empirical analysis results, we put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to stabilize the price fluctuation of Yunnan vegetables. Through the above study, the results show that: (1) the characteristics of price fluctuation: from the point of view of seasonal characteristics, the Ji Jiebo of Chinese cabbage and rape is found. The fluctuation of cucumber, tomato and cowpea is similar to that of "n", and the fluctuation characteristics of cucumber, tomato and cowpea are similar to "U". The price fluctuation of potatoes is relatively stable, except for the more intense fluctuation at the beginning of the year, the change of the rest months is smaller. In general, the price of vegetables in Yunnan province is rising year by year in 2003-2014 years, and Yunnan and Shandong are on the whole. The characteristics of the annual price fluctuation are generally the same, and there are certain differences compared with the whole country. (2) the theoretical analysis results show that the factors of cost, climate, production and other factors in the supply factors, the population, the income level, the export volume of the demand factors, the other factors in the policy, circulation, information, regional differences and the characteristics of vegetables themselves. To a certain extent, it affects the fluctuation of vegetable prices in Yunnan province. The supply and demand condition has great influence on the price fluctuation of vegetables. The influence of policy, circulation status and information can not be underestimated. But the important factor that affects the fluctuation of vegetable price is the supply factor. (3) factor analysis results show that vegetable planting area, total vegetable production, regional birth The gross product is the embodiment of the supply capacity of vegetables; the per capita disposable income of urban households, the ultimate embodiment of the vegetable demand in the total population of the region; the price index of the agricultural production data is the embodiment of the cost of vegetable production, and the consumer price index of fresh vegetable residents finally embodies the cost of the purchase and purchase of vegetables by the residents. It is found that the main factors that lead to frequent fluctuation of vegetable prices in Yunnan are as follows: vegetable planting area, GDP, total output of vegetables, per capita disposable income of urban households, total population of the region, consumer price index of residents, price index of agricultural production, area and area. Gross production value, the total output of vegetables has a particular impact on the price of vegetables. (4) measures to stabilize the price of vegetables in Yunnan include: ensuring the effective supply of vegetables, guiding the reasonable demand of consumers, strengthening the vegetable policy support, and perfecting the supervision system of vegetable market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F323.7

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