本文選題：土地人口承載力 + 生態(tài)足跡法��； 參考：《成都理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：金沙江下游正處于開發(fā)期,水電站的建設(shè)涉及溪洛渡、向家壩、白鶴灘和烏東德四個(gè)電站。水電站的建設(shè)意味著大批移民安置工作的展開,在此過(guò)程中要合理界定土地人口承載力即移民安置的過(guò)程中安置區(qū)的環(huán)境人口容量“閥值”,這對(duì)于處理好人地矛盾,揭示人口、資源環(huán)境、糧食三者之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)聯(lián)有著重要意義。本文根據(jù)四川省德昌縣移民安置發(fā)展規(guī)劃的要求,立足于實(shí)際的土地結(jié)構(gòu)和土地資源開發(fā)利用現(xiàn)狀,按照時(shí)間順序?qū)v年的生態(tài)環(huán)境現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,對(duì)德昌縣土地人口承載力進(jìn)行分析和探究,并提出土地資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展的意見(jiàn)和策略。土地問(wèn)題已成為移民安置工作中的核心問(wèn)題,通過(guò)此項(xiàng)研究,探尋更為合理且實(shí)際的土地人口承載力的分析方法,為構(gòu)建協(xié)調(diào)持續(xù)發(fā)展的人地關(guān)系提供科學(xué)合理的理論依據(jù)。本文在評(píng)述國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于土地人口承載力的定性定量研究的基礎(chǔ)上,綜合運(yùn)用人口適度理論、資源稀缺理論和可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論,結(jié)合歷年統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒并對(duì)比實(shí)際調(diào)研的數(shù)據(jù),在收集了近5年的農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上量化了德昌縣的土地人口承載量;本文并未單一的選取某一模型做定量分析,而是在大量文獻(xiàn)研究過(guò)程中選取了生態(tài)足跡法和生態(tài)農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)域法兩種分析方法從不同角度分別對(duì)德昌縣土地人口承載力進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析。生態(tài)足跡法將土地資源劃分為耕地、林地、草地、水域、化石能源用地、建筑用地6種類型的土地,該方法計(jì)算一定生態(tài)資源條件下,要維持固定人口和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模必須提供的用來(lái)保證資源消費(fèi)和廢棄物吸收的必需生物生產(chǎn)面積,并綜合利用人口、農(nóng)業(yè)等統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)從生物能源消費(fèi)和能源消費(fèi)兩方面計(jì)算總生態(tài)足跡,最后得出其生態(tài)足跡和承載力,客觀的分析了各類型土地的生態(tài)赤字或者盈余現(xiàn)狀,從而發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)下土地利用模式的弊端,并找準(zhǔn)具有較大發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ耐恋乩妙愋汀＾r(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)區(qū)域法從太陽(yáng)輻射、溫度、水份,土壤等自然生態(tài)因素對(duì)作物的影響出發(fā),從作物光合作用入手,依據(jù)作物能量轉(zhuǎn)化過(guò)程,根據(jù)遞減系數(shù)逐步衰減來(lái)估算土地生產(chǎn)潛力。文中計(jì)算德昌縣主要作物的光合生產(chǎn)潛力、氣候生產(chǎn)潛力、土壤生產(chǎn)潛力和土地生產(chǎn)潛力,并按人均熱量、蛋白質(zhì)和脂肪的消耗測(cè)算土地資源的承載能力,研究了德昌縣食物消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和土地資源承載力的主要影響因素。文中創(chuàng)造性的將兩個(gè)主流模型相結(jié)合定量和定性的分析同一地區(qū)的土地人口承載力,根據(jù)研究結(jié)果客觀的分析兩種模型的利弊,從而發(fā)現(xiàn)同一區(qū)域選擇不同的土地人口承載力計(jì)算模型,其計(jì)算結(jié)果和分析過(guò)程都會(huì)對(duì)最終制定和實(shí)施土地戰(zhàn)略決策產(chǎn)生很大的影響。并在大量文獻(xiàn)和實(shí)例研究中發(fā)現(xiàn)一個(gè)普遍存在的結(jié)論傾向,即基于生態(tài)足跡的人口承載力模型計(jì)算出的人口承載量要比農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)區(qū)域法計(jì)算所得的人口承載量小很多,這一數(shù)據(jù)從整體自然生態(tài)的角度提醒我們?cè)陂_發(fā)地球資源的同時(shí)要綜合考慮到人與自然的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,對(duì)區(qū)域土地人口承載力的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果不能過(guò)于樂(lè)觀。這也正是以往文獻(xiàn)中存在的研究漏洞。本文在對(duì)德昌縣進(jìn)行實(shí)例研究分析的過(guò)程中發(fā)現(xiàn)了生態(tài)足跡法和農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)區(qū)域法各自的局限性,找出兩種分析方法之間的補(bǔ)充關(guān)系。從而得出,在進(jìn)行土地人口承載力分析中,我們不可以單方面依據(jù)某一模型樂(lè)觀或者悲觀的看待當(dāng)前區(qū)域土地的承載能力,應(yīng)將兩種方法結(jié)合使用,從而讓研究結(jié)果更能正確的指導(dǎo)地區(qū)土地規(guī)劃和開發(fā)利用戰(zhàn)略。根據(jù)兩種方法的理論背景和研究各自的傾向性,農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)區(qū)域法更適合用于預(yù)測(cè),根據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)刈魑锂a(chǎn)量所能提供的用來(lái)確定土地承載力的上限值,然后以生態(tài)足跡法的研究結(jié)果作為約束條件,建立社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、資源、環(huán)境多背景下土地承載力指標(biāo)值,并對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)區(qū)域法進(jìn)行實(shí)際校正,確定多目標(biāo)下所能支撐的最大人口數(shù)量,進(jìn)而對(duì)戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)和目標(biāo)的實(shí)施過(guò)程中進(jìn)行適時(shí)修正。
[Abstract]:The lower reaches of the Jinsha River are in the development period. The construction of hydropower stations involves Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba, Baihe beach and udong de four power stations. The construction of hydropower stations means a large number of resettlement work. In this process, the land population bearing capacity, that is, the "threshold" of the environmental population capacity of the resettlement area, is a reasonable definition of the land population carrying capacity. It is of great significance to deal with the contradictions between the good people, reveal the population, the resources and the environment, and the internal relations between the three grain people. This paper, based on the requirements of the development planning of the resettlement in Dechang County of Sichuan Province, based on the actual land structure and the status of the exploitation and utilization of land resources, analyses the current ecological environment according to the order of time. The land population bearing capacity of Dechang county is analyzed and explored, and the suggestions and strategies for the sustainable development of land resources have been put forward. The land problem has become the core problem in the resettlement work. Through this study, the analysis method of the more reasonable and practical land population carrying capacity is explored to provide the harmonious and sustainable development of the human land relationship. On the basis of reviewing the qualitative and quantitative research on the carrying capacity of land population at home and abroad, this paper comprehensively uses the theory of population moderation, the theory of resource scarcity and the theory of sustainable development, and quantifies the agricultural ecological data on the basis of the collection of the agricultural ecological data of nearly 5 years, combining the statistical yearbook of the past year and comparing the actual survey data. The land population bearing capacity of Dechang County, this paper does not choose a single model to do quantitative analysis, but in the process of literature study, the ecological footprint method and ecological agricultural region method are selected to analyze the land population bearing capacity of Dechang county from two different angles. It is divided into 6 types of land, which are cultivated land, woodland, grassland, water area, fossil energy land and construction land. Under the conditions of certain ecological resources, it is necessary to maintain the necessary biological production area for the fixed population and the scale of social and economic production to ensure the consumption of resources and the absorption of waste, and to make comprehensive use of the population, agriculture and other systems. The total ecological footprint was calculated from two aspects of biological energy consumption and energy consumption. Finally, the ecological footprint and carrying capacity were obtained. The ecological deficit or the surplus status of various types of land were analyzed objectively, and the disadvantages of the current land use model were found and the land use type with great potential for development was found. The domain method starts with the effects of natural ecological factors such as solar radiation, temperature, water and soil on crops, starting with crop photosynthesis, according to the process of crop energy conversion, and estimating the potential of land production according to the gradual attenuation coefficient. In this paper, the photosynthetic production potential, climate production potential and soil production potential of the main crops in Dechang county are calculated. With the potential of land production and the calculation of the carrying capacity of land resources according to the consumption of per capita heat, protein and fat, the main influencing factors of the food consumption structure and the carrying capacity of land resources in Dechang county were studied. The two mainstream models were creatively combined to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the land population bearing capacity of the same area. The results of the study objectively analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the two models, and find the different calculation models of the land population carrying capacity in the same region. The results and the analysis process will have a great impact on the final formulation and implementation of the land strategic decision. The population carrying capacity of the population bearing capacity model based on the ecological footprint is much smaller than that calculated by the agro ecological region method. This data from the point of view of the whole natural ecology reminds us of the sustainable development of human and nature in the development of the earth resources and the bearing of the regional land population. The results of the prediction of the force can not be too optimistic. This is also a research loophole in the previous literature. In this paper, the limitations of the ecological footprint method and the agro ecological region method were found in the case study of Dechang County, and the complementary relationship between the two analytical methods was found out. In the analysis, we can not view the carrying capacity of the current land in an optimistic or pessimistic view of a certain model. We should combine the two methods, so that the results can guide the strategy of land planning and development and utilization more correctly. According to the theoretical background of the two methods and the study of their respective tendencies, agricultural ecology Regional method is more suitable for forecasting, according to the local crop yield can be used to determine the upper limit of land carrying capacity, and then take the results of ecological footprint method as a constraint condition to establish the index value of land carrying capacity under the multi background of social, economic, resource and environment, and make practical correction to the agro ecological region method and determine the multi-objective. The maximum number of population that can be supported can be corrected timely in the implementation of strategic objectives and objectives.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2;S181

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