本文選題：工業(yè)化 + 城鎮(zhèn)化��； 參考：《山東理工大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化的深入發(fā)展,農(nóng)村的大量勞動力和資金外流,農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展面臨著嚴峻的考驗,實現(xiàn)工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化(下文用“三化”表示)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展成為區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟全面發(fā)展的內(nèi)在要求,也是推動區(qū)域經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實選擇。山東省是中國經(jīng)濟最發(fā)達的省份之一,城鎮(zhèn)化進程穩(wěn)步推進,與此同時山東省亦是農(nóng)業(yè)大省,農(nóng)業(yè)人口基數(shù)大。因此,測度山東省工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度并研究三者互動發(fā)展關系,對于山東省統(tǒng)籌城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展,促進“三化”良性互動具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義�；凇叭眳f(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的理論基礎,以實現(xiàn)區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展為目的,采用理論與實證相結(jié)合的方法對山東省“三化”協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展進行研究。具體方法:選取山東省17地市2001~2015年面板數(shù)據(jù),采用DEA指數(shù)法對農(nóng)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率進行測算并以其作為農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的指標,構(gòu)造耦合協(xié)調(diào)模型從系統(tǒng)角度對山東省“三化”協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展進行測算分析,并運用面板向量自回歸模型從內(nèi)部層面估計了工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的動態(tài)關系。研究表明:山東省“三化”協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平整體呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)步提高趨勢,山東省17地市均有不同程度水平的提高,但是整體協(xié)調(diào)水平不高,仍有較大的提升空間;從分布區(qū)域來看:山東省沿海區(qū)域“三化”子系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平整體高于內(nèi)陸區(qū)域“三化”子系統(tǒng)發(fā)展水平。工業(yè)化對城鎮(zhèn)化有顯著的單向促進作用,而農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化和二者(城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化)之間不存在顯著的關系;城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化存在單向格蘭杰因果關系,農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化化和二者均不存在格蘭杰因果關系;工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化二者與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化互動關系較弱導致農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展滯后;三化的互動關系檢驗進一步驗證了山東省“三化”協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平較低。在此基礎上提出了推進山東省“三化”同步發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the further development of industrialization and urbanization and the outflow of a large amount of labor and capital from rural areas, the development of agricultural modernization is facing a severe test.The coordinated development of agricultural modernization (indicated by the "three modernizations" below) has become the inherent requirement of the overall development of regional society and economy, and is also the realistic choice to promote the coordinated development of regional economy.Shandong Province is one of the most economically developed provinces in China, and the process of urbanization is advancing steadily. At the same time, Shandong Province is also a big agricultural province with a large agricultural population base.Therefore, measuring the degree of coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Shandong Province and studying the relationship between them are of practical significance for Shandong Province to coordinate the development of urban and rural areas and to promote the positive interaction between the "three modernizations".Based on the theoretical basis of the coordinated development of the "three modernizations" and with the aim of realizing the regional social and economic development, this paper studies the coordinated development of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province by combining the theory with the empirical method.Methods: the panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2001 to 2015 were selected, and the total factor productivity of agriculture was measured by DEA index method and used as the index of agricultural modernization.A coupled coordination model is constructed to measure and analyze the coordinated development of "three modernizations" in Shandong Province from the system point of view, and the dynamic relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization is estimated from the internal level by using the panel vector autoregressive model.The research shows that the coordinated development level of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province has a steady increasing trend as a whole, and 17 cities and cities in Shandong Province have improved to varying degrees, but the overall coordination level is not high, and there is still greater room for improvement;From the point of view of the distribution region, the coordinated development level of the "three modernizations" subsystem in the coastal region of Shandong Province is higher than that in the inland area as a whole.Industrialization has a significant unidirectional effect on urbanization, but there is no significant relationship between agricultural modernization and both (urbanization and industrialization), while there is a one-way Granger causality between urbanization and industrialization.There is no Granger causality between agricultural modernization and urbanization, the weak interaction between industrialization and urbanization and agricultural modernization leads to the lagging of agricultural modernization.The interactive relation test of the three modernizations further verifies the low level of coordinated development of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province.On the basis of this, the paper puts forward the policy suggestions of promoting the synchronous development of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province.
【學位授予單位】：山東理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.27;F327;F427

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