本文選題：生豬生產(chǎn)　切入點(diǎn)：豬肉消費(fèi)　出處：《東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)水平的提高,人民生活的改善和營(yíng)養(yǎng)均衡理念的發(fā)展,人們對(duì)豬肉的消費(fèi)需求與日劇增。而近年來,由于供需失衡導(dǎo)致的一系列豬肉產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)、價(jià)格波動(dòng)和消費(fèi)量波動(dòng),不僅給養(yǎng)殖戶的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益帶來損失,而且也讓消費(fèi)者面臨非常大的市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),進(jìn)而影響畜牧業(yè)的平衡發(fā)展。因此,研究豬肉產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)消費(fèi)的波動(dòng)特征及影響因素,以促進(jìn)豬肉產(chǎn)業(yè)長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定健康發(fā)展,滿足城鄉(xiāng)居民的消費(fèi)需求,已成為關(guān)系民生的重大問題。本文基于歷史數(shù)據(jù),從生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)兩個(gè)視角對(duì)黑龍江省生豬生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀和未來的供需情況進(jìn)行了深入研究,具體研究如下:(1)從生豬生產(chǎn)和豬肉消費(fèi)兩個(gè)視角分析了黑龍江省豬肉產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展概況,得出:2000年以來,黑龍江省生豬生產(chǎn)和豬肉消費(fèi)在豬肉產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展變化中表現(xiàn)出各自的特征。在生豬生產(chǎn)方面:豬肉產(chǎn)量和豬肉價(jià)格都出現(xiàn)了明顯地變動(dòng);在豬肉消費(fèi)方面:黑龍江省豬肉消費(fèi)量與日俱增,消費(fèi)水平也隨之增加。(2)黑龍江省生豬生產(chǎn)波動(dòng)特征及影響因素研究。首先,應(yīng)用HP濾波法對(duì)黑龍江省生豬生產(chǎn)波動(dòng)進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)黑龍江省生豬生產(chǎn)波動(dòng)呈現(xiàn)出三方面的特征:豬肉出欄量和豬肉年產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)相同,黑龍江省生豬生產(chǎn)波幅在特殊情況下特別明顯外,波幅有所減緩以及生產(chǎn)呈現(xiàn)周期性的波動(dòng)但趨勢(shì)近年來有所減緩;其次,應(yīng)用因子分析法研究生豬生產(chǎn)波動(dòng)成因,發(fā)現(xiàn)影響因素主要有四個(gè),即供給因子、需求因子、生產(chǎn)因子和外生因子。其中,供給因子影響最大,需求因子次之,生產(chǎn)和外生因子最小。(3)黑龍江省豬肉消費(fèi)特征及影響因素研究。黑龍江省豬肉消費(fèi)量隨著居民生活水平的提高也主要表現(xiàn)出其自身特征,即居民的豬肉消費(fèi)量從總體上看在逐年增高,但城鄉(xiāng)居民的豬肉消費(fèi)量差距明顯。影響豬肉消費(fèi)的因素主要是豬肉價(jià)格因素、豬肉肉質(zhì)因素、消費(fèi)者食品安全認(rèn)知和營(yíng)養(yǎng)健康認(rèn)知。豬肉價(jià)格因素對(duì)居民豬肉消費(fèi)需求影響相對(duì)最大,而消費(fèi)者食品安全認(rèn)知次之,但相對(duì)肉質(zhì)因素和營(yíng)養(yǎng)健康認(rèn)知來說,影響效果依然很大。(4)黑龍江省豬肉供需預(yù)測(cè)及平衡分析。首先應(yīng)用ARMA模型對(duì)黑龍江省未來五年豬肉生產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),表明豬肉生產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)量間嚴(yán)重不平衡;其次,根據(jù)生產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)量間缺口,分析其產(chǎn)生原因。最后,通過供需匹配系數(shù)將生產(chǎn)量與消費(fèi)量進(jìn)行調(diào)整,得到供給量和需求量。預(yù)計(jì)未來五年黑龍江省豬肉供需基本保持平衡。通過分析黑龍江省生豬生產(chǎn)與消費(fèi)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和特征,為豬肉產(chǎn)業(yè)各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)參與者指導(dǎo)實(shí)踐以及黑龍江省豬肉產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展都具有十分重要的意義。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of the national economy, the improvement of the people's life and the development of the idea of nutrition balance, people's demand for pork consumption is increasing dramatically.In recent years, a series of fluctuations in pork output, prices and consumption caused by the imbalance between supply and demand have not only brought losses to farmers' economic interests, but also made consumers face very large market risks.And then affect the balanced development of animal husbandry.Therefore, studying the fluctuating characteristics and influencing factors of pork production and consumption in order to promote the long-term stable and healthy development of pork industry and meet the consumption needs of urban and rural residents has become a major issue related to people's livelihood.Based on historical data, the present situation of pig production and future supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province were studied from the perspectives of production and consumption.This paper analyzes the development of pork industry in Heilongjiang Province from the perspectives of pig production and pork consumption, and concludes that: since 2000, the pig production and pork consumption in Heilongjiang Province have shown their own characteristics in the development of pork industry.In the production of live pigs: pork production and pork prices have changed significantly; in terms of pork consumption: the consumption of pork in Heilongjiang Province is increasing with each passing day.Consumption level also increased. 2) the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of pig production in Heilongjiang Province.First of all, using HP filter method to analyze the fluctuation of production of live pigs in Heilongjiang Province, it is found that the fluctuation of production of live pigs in Heilongjiang Province shows three characteristics: the amount of pork out of stock and the increasing trend of annual output of pork are the same.The wave amplitude of live pig production in Heilongjiang Province is especially obvious under special circumstances. The amplitude of the wave has slowed down and the production has a periodic fluctuation, but the trend has slowed in recent years. Secondly, factor analysis method is used to study the causes of the fluctuation of live pig production.It is found that there are four main influencing factors, namely, supply factor, demand factor, production factor and exogenous factor.Among them, the supply factor is the most important, the demand factor is the second, the production and exogenous factor is the smallest.) the consumption characteristics and influencing factors of pork in Heilongjiang Province are studied.The pork consumption of Heilongjiang Province also shows its own characteristics with the improvement of the living standard of the residents, that is, the pork consumption of the residents is increasing year by year, but the difference of the consumption of pork between urban and rural residents is obvious.The main factors affecting pork consumption are pork price, pork meat quality, consumers' knowledge of food safety and nutrition and health.The influence of pork price factors on the consumption demand of pork was the biggest, followed by food safety cognition of consumers, but the effect was still great compared with meat quality factors and nutritional health cognition.) the prediction and balance analysis of pork supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province.Firstly, the ARMA model is used to predict the pork production and consumption in Heilongjiang Province in the next five years, which shows that the pork production and consumption are seriously unbalanced. Secondly, according to the gap between production and consumption, the causes of pork production and consumption are analyzed.Finally, supply and demand are obtained by adjusting production and consumption by matching coefficient of supply and demand.In the next five years, the pork supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province is basically balanced.Based on the analysis of the present situation and characteristics of pig production and consumption in Heilongjiang Province, it is of great significance to guide the practice of the participants in the pork industry and the development of the pork industry in Heilongjiang Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F326.3

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