本文選題：農(nóng)產(chǎn)品　切入點：二元邊際　出處：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代以來,中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口額保持了良好的增長勢頭,1995年中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口額為150億美元,到2014時已經(jīng)增長到719.6億美元,年均增長率達(dá)8.16%。雖然中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口額增長迅速,但是每逢面對經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)沖擊,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口額都會出現(xiàn)劇烈波動。1997年東南亞金融危機(jī)使農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長率由1997年7.69%下降到1998年的-12.50%。2008年全球金融危機(jī)使農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長率由2007年的19.27%下降到2008年的9.43%,2009年為-2.25%。這充分暴露了中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長的不穩(wěn)定性、高風(fēng)險性和脆弱性。經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)沖擊導(dǎo)致的中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口劇烈波動使得人們不斷反思現(xiàn)行的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長方式。以企業(yè)異質(zhì)性模型為代表的新新貿(mào)易理論為我們研究出口增長現(xiàn)象提供了一個新的視角。該理論認(rèn)為貿(mào)易的增長主要依靠兩條途徑實現(xiàn),即集約邊際增長和擴(kuò)展邊際增長,集約邊際意味著出口專業(yè)化,擴(kuò)展邊際意味著出口多樣化。那么,中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的出口增長是如何實現(xiàn)的呢?哪些因素會影響該路徑農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的出口增長呢?不同因素對集約邊際和擴(kuò)展邊際的影響有何差異?中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長的脆弱性與二元邊際有何聯(lián)系?在“一帶一路”建設(shè)背景下,這些問題值得深入探討。本文首先對二元邊際理論基礎(chǔ)及實證類文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了梳理,然后分析了中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口額變化趨勢、市場結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu),接著采用H-K測度方法測度中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長的二元邊際,以確定中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長路徑,隨后采用面板模型考察了中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長二元邊際影響因素,著重探討中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長脆弱性的原因,最后總結(jié)結(jié)論并提出政策建議。實證結(jié)果表明,1995~2014年期間中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長由集約邊際和擴(kuò)展邊際共同拉動,但集約邊際起主要的貢獻(xiàn)作用,其貢獻(xiàn)率高達(dá)60%以上。經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模對集約邊際有顯著的正影響,農(nóng)業(yè)增加值占GDP的比重、貿(mào)易成本和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)對集約邊際有顯著的負(fù)影響。農(nóng)業(yè)增加值占GDP的比重和與中國簽訂區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化協(xié)定對擴(kuò)展邊際有顯著的正影響,而貿(mào)易成本和人均GDP年增長率對擴(kuò)展邊際有顯著的負(fù)影響。經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)對集約邊際有顯著的負(fù)影響,擴(kuò)展邊際具有“穩(wěn)定器”作用,這為解釋中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長脆弱性問題提供了新視角并具有豐富政策含義。根據(jù)研究結(jié)論,為了推動中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口持續(xù)健康發(fā)展,本文提出以下幾個方面的政策建議:一是發(fā)展農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口多樣化,調(diào)整擴(kuò)展邊際結(jié)構(gòu);二是提高農(nóng)產(chǎn)品附加值,實現(xiàn)價格優(yōu)勢;三是提高貿(mào)易便利化水平,降低貿(mào)易成本;四是積極深化推動貿(mào)易自由區(qū)建設(shè);五是合理選擇出口市場。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, China's agricultural exports have maintained a good momentum of growth, from 15 billion US dollars in 1995 to 71.96 billion US dollars in 2014. The average annual growth rate is 8.16%. Although China's exports of agricultural products are growing rapidly, but every time the economic crisis strikes, In 1997, the financial crisis in Southeast Asia reduced the growth rate of agricultural exports from 7.69% in 1997 to -12.50.2008 in 1998. As a result of the global financial crisis of 1998, the growth rate of agricultural exports dropped from 19.27% in 1998 to 19.27% in 1998. On 2009, it was -2.25. this fully exposed the instability of China's agricultural export growth. High risk and vulnerability. The sharp fluctuation of Chinese agricultural product export caused by economic crisis makes people constantly reflect on the current agricultural product export growth mode. The new and new trade theory represented by enterprise heterogeneity model is our new trade theory. They offer a new perspective on the phenomenon of export growth, which argues that trade growth is mainly achieved in two ways. That is, intensive marginal growth and expansion of marginal growth, intensive marginal means export specialization, expansion of marginal means export diversification. So, how to achieve the export growth of Chinese agricultural products? What factors will affect the path of export growth of agricultural products? What are the differences in the influence of different factors on the intensive and extended margins? What is the relationship between the fragility of China's agricultural export growth and the dualistic margin? Under the background of "Belt and Road" construction, these problems are worth discussing deeply. This paper firstly combs the dualistic marginal theory basis and empirical literature, then analyzes the trend of China's agricultural product import and export. Market structure and product structure, then using H-K measure method to measure the dual marginal of China's agricultural product export growth, to determine the path of China's agricultural product export growth. Then using panel model to investigate the dualistic marginal factors of China's agricultural product export growth, focusing on the reasons for the fragility of China's agricultural product export growth. The empirical results show that the export growth of agricultural products in China during the period from 1995 to 2014 was driven by both the intensive marginal and the extended marginal, but the intensive marginal played a major contribution. The contribution rate is over 60%. The economic scale has a significant positive effect on the intensive marginal value, and agricultural added value accounts for the proportion of GDP. The trade cost and economic crisis have a significant negative impact on the intensive marginal. The ratio of agricultural value added to GDP and the signing of regional economic integration agreement with China have a significant positive impact on the expansion of the marginal. However, trade costs and per capita GDP growth rate have a significant negative impact on the expansion margin, which has a "stabilizer" effect, and the economic crisis has a significant negative impact on the intensive marginal. This provides a new perspective and rich policy implications for explaining the fragility of China's agricultural export growth. According to the conclusions of the study, in order to promote the sustained and healthy development of China's agricultural exports, This paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: first, to develop the diversification of agricultural products exports, adjust and expand the marginal structure; second, to increase the added value of agricultural products and realize price advantages; third, to improve the level of trade facilitation and reduce trade costs; Fourth, actively deepen the construction of free zones for trade, and fifthly, rationally select export markets.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.62;F323.7

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