【摘要】：自國內(nèi)的證券市場開始到現(xiàn)在,金融詐騙案時有發(fā)生,這嚴重影響了投資者對投資的信心和投資激情,并且也嚴重干擾著資本市場的正常運行。最近,股市持續(xù)低迷,證監(jiān)會不斷的提高上市公司融資的門檻,又加上很多的中小企業(yè)板剛剛創(chuàng)建。上市企業(yè)的財務欺詐將不會減少反而會隨之漸漸增多。怎樣找尋一個簡單通用的方法來識別上市企業(yè)是否發(fā)生財務欺詐儼然已經(jīng)成為大部分的投資者、證券監(jiān)督部門、會計師事務所和其他相關(guān)部門的研究熱點。 本文通過對上市公司財務各項財務指標進行了規(guī)范性的研究,并最終總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外研究的一些熱點指標進行了分析,從中選出了幾個具有明顯特征的指標作為本文的研究對象,建立了一個適合我國財務報告的金融欺詐決策模型,以此來判斷上市公司是否有欺詐行文存在。 國外的上市公司由于存在的時間比較長,發(fā)展歷程比較久遠,因此其相應的退市機制也比較可靠,相關(guān)的研究也較深層次,其研究的方面主要是對財務欺詐預警模型的研究,并獲得了一定的研究成就。相比較國內(nèi)的相關(guān)研究比較晚,主要還偏重于對國外研究成就的分析和描述階段,并且通過數(shù)學模型建立了一些財務欺詐識別模型,在實證性研究方面也比較少。 本文主要分析了中西方研究成果和方法后,結(jié)合了我國上市公司的實際情況,大膽嘗試創(chuàng)建了一種基于模糊決策的上市公司財務欺詐識別模型。研究的對象主要集中了一些經(jīng)被證實為財務欺詐的上市公司以及一些非欺詐上市公司,通過實證研究證明了此方法的實用性和可靠性。 筆者首先根據(jù)我國上市公司的財務欺詐動機進行了分析,通過分析得到哪些存在欺詐的上市公司往往是財務指標異常和財務狀況不佳的一些公司。并從中找到了財務欺詐引起異常的財務指標。 本文研究的對象主要是從XBRL中已經(jīng)被揭露存在財務欺詐的公司和未進行欺詐的正常上市公司進行研究,將選出的財務指標對這些上市公司進行分析研究。 最后通過對以上指標進行模糊權(quán)重加權(quán),得到了最終的模糊決策模型來識別上市公司的財務欺詐。 本文通過研究得到了非財務欺詐的上市公司和已經(jīng)有財務欺詐的上市公司之間有明顯的指標差異。因此建立這個識別模型可以有效判斷上市公司是否有欺詐行為,但是光靠此模型,來判斷公司是否存在欺詐行為并不能完全可靠,因為還存在一些其他的因素干擾,因此這個模型僅能作為判斷該公司是否有欺詐行為存在,只能起到一個警示的作用,要想得到真正的結(jié)果需要結(jié)合多方面的信息,收集更多的資料以得到更加精確的結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the domestic securities market, financial fraud cases have occurred from time to time, which has seriously affected investors' confidence in investment and investment passion, and seriously interfered with the normal operation of the capital market. Recently, the stock market continued to downturn, the Securities Regulatory Commission continued to raise the threshold of financing listed companies, plus a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises have just been created. Financial fraud of listed enterprises will not be reduced, but will gradually increase. How to find a simple and general method to identify financial fraud in listed enterprises has become a hot research topic for most investors, securities supervision departments, accounting firms and other relevant departments. This paper makes a normative research on the financial indexes of listed companies, and finally summarizes some hot research indicators at home and abroad, from which several indicators with obvious characteristics are selected as the research object of this paper. A decision model of financial fraud is established to judge the existence of fraud in listed companies. Because the foreign listed companies exist for a long time and have a long history of development, the corresponding delisting mechanism is also relatively reliable, and the related research is also deeper. The main research aspect is the study of the financial fraud warning model. And has obtained the certain research achievement. Compared with the domestic related research, the main emphasis on the analysis and description of foreign research achievements, and through the mathematical model to establish some financial fraud identification model, but also less empirical research. This paper mainly analyzes the research results and methods of China and the West, combines the actual situation of listed companies in China, and attempts to establish a financial fraud identification model of listed companies based on fuzzy decision making. The research focuses on some listed companies which have been proved to be financial fraud and some non-fraudulent listed companies. The practicability and reliability of this method are proved by empirical research. Firstly, according to the motivation of financial fraud of listed companies in China, the author finds out which listed companies are usually some companies with abnormal financial indicators and poor financial situation. And found out the financial fraud caused by abnormal financial indicators. The object of this paper is to study the listed companies which have been exposed to the existence of financial fraud from the XBRL and the normal listed companies without fraud. The selected financial indicators will be selected to analyze and study these listed companies. Finally, the final fuzzy decision model is obtained to identify the financial fraud of listed companies by weighted fuzzy weights. In this paper, we find that there are significant differences between listed companies with non-financial fraud and listed companies with financial fraud. Therefore, the establishment of this identification model can effectively judge whether a listed company is engaged in fraud, but it is not entirely reliable to judge whether there is fraud in a company by this model alone, because there are some other factors interfering with it. Therefore, this model can only serve as a warning to judge the existence of fraud in the company. In order to get real results, it is necessary to combine various information and collect more information to get more accurate results.
【學位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F232

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本文編號：2407541