【摘要】：農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司是中國農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的產(chǎn)物,在農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展中占據(jù)重要地位,但是我國農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司在發(fā)展過程中很容易出現(xiàn)背農(nóng)經(jīng)營、被ST和終止上市等財務(wù)問題,阻礙了農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的健康持續(xù)發(fā)展。如何通過財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型來減少或避免財務(wù)危機(jī)是農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司面臨的關(guān)鍵問題。由此可見,構(gòu)建一套科學(xué)合理的農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型對農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的健康發(fā)展具有重要意義。 本文選取滬深證券交易所2013年4家被特別處理的農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司和48家正常的農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司為研究樣本。通過對財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警和EVA理論的研究,提出了基于EVA的農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型,將EVA引入到農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)指標(biāo)體系中代替單純的會計利潤,彌補(bǔ)會計利潤不能充分考慮股權(quán)資本成本的不足。構(gòu)建基于EVA的農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司指標(biāo)體系,從償債能力、盈利能力等五個方面綜合反映農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的財務(wù)狀況,運(yùn)用Logistic預(yù)警模型對農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司發(fā)生財務(wù)危機(jī)前3年的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行建模,并選取農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司2008-2009年的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行財務(wù)危機(jī)準(zhǔn)確率檢測。本文主要研究結(jié)論如下： 1.本文通過對52家農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司發(fā)生財務(wù)危機(jī)的概率P進(jìn)行計算,設(shè)定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)臨界值,得出結(jié)論：當(dāng)概率P0.5時,說明公司發(fā)生財務(wù)危機(jī)的可能性較大,處于財務(wù)危機(jī)狀態(tài)；當(dāng)概率P0.5時,說明農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)狀況良好,處于財務(wù)正常狀態(tài)。由此就可以通過Logistic回歸模型來預(yù)測農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的財務(wù)狀況是否正常。 2.研究結(jié)果表明：利用Logistic建立的基于EVA的財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型對農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)危機(jī)有較強(qiáng)的預(yù)測能力,預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確率均在80%以上,而且距離被特別處理的時間越長,預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確率越低：距離被特別處理的時間越短,預(yù)測能力越強(qiáng),誤判率就越低。 3.通過對研究結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析得出,流動比率、修正的銷售凈利率和凈利潤增長率對農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的財務(wù)狀況影響比較顯著,由這3個財務(wù)指標(biāo)構(gòu)成的Logistic回歸模型,可以減少或避免農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)危機(jī)的發(fā)生。
[Abstract]:Agricultural listed companies are the products of agricultural development in China and play an important role in agricultural development. However, in the process of development, agricultural listed companies in China are prone to financial problems such as carrying on agricultural management, being terminated by ST, and so on. It hinders the healthy and sustainable development of agricultural listed companies. How to reduce or avoid financial crisis through financial crisis early warning model is a key problem faced by agricultural listed companies. Therefore, it is of great significance to construct a set of scientific and reasonable financial crisis warning model for agricultural listed companies. In this paper, four special agricultural listed companies and 48 normal agricultural listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2013 were selected as the research samples. Based on the research of financial crisis warning and EVA theory, this paper puts forward the financial crisis warning model of agricultural listed companies based on EVA, and introduces EVA into the financial index system of agricultural listed companies instead of pure accounting profits. To make up for the accounting profit can not fully consider the lack of equity capital cost. The index system of agricultural listed companies based on EVA is constructed, which reflects the financial situation of agricultural listed companies from five aspects, such as solvency and profitability. This paper uses Logistic early warning model to model the data of three years before the financial crisis of agricultural listed companies, and selects the financial data of agricultural listed companies in 2008-2009 to detect the accuracy of financial crisis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. This paper calculates the probability P of 52 agricultural listed companies' financial crisis, sets the critical value of standard, and draws a conclusion: when the probability is P0.5, the possibility of financial crisis is great and the company is in the state of financial crisis; When probabilistic P _ (0.5), it shows that agricultural listed companies are in good financial condition and are in a normal state of finance. From this, we can predict whether the financial situation of agricultural listed companies is normal by Logistic regression model. 2. The results show that the early warning model of financial crisis based on EVA established by Logistic has a strong ability to predict the financial crisis of agricultural listed companies. The accuracy of forecasting is more than 80%, and the longer the time of special treatment, the longer the forecasting accuracy is. The lower the prediction accuracy is: the shorter the distance is, the stronger the prediction ability is, and the lower the error rate is. 3. Through the analysis of the research results, it is concluded that the current ratio, the revised net interest rate of sales and the net profit growth rate have a significant impact on the financial situation of agricultural listed companies. The Logistic regression model is composed of these three financial indicators. Can reduce or avoid the occurrence of financial crisis of agricultural listed companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F302.6;F324

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 董淑蘭;王永德;;農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司社會責(zé)任會計信息披露評價研究[J];商業(yè)研究;2012年06期

2 鄭瑞強(qiáng);張曉薇;;農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司EVA價值創(chuàng)造及驅(qū)動因素研究[J];商業(yè)研究;2012年07期

3 周娟;王麗娟;;基于現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)的財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型分析[J];財會通訊(學(xué)術(shù)版);2005年12期

4 董雪雁;;EVA視角的上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)警實證研究[J];財會通訊(學(xué)術(shù)版);2008年03期

5 劉曉英;;EVA的計算及其會計調(diào)整[J];財會通訊;2009年28期

6 袁康來;任芝銀;;農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)危機(jī)成因分析[J];財會通訊;2010年14期

7 辛懷慧;楊文杰;;農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司盈利能力分析[J];財會通訊;2011年14期

8 羅爽;;農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險控制探討[J];財會通訊;2011年35期

9 趙晨光;張心靈;范文娟;;農(nóng)業(yè)類上市公司會計信息與股價變動的關(guān)聯(lián)分析[J];財會月刊;2010年03期

10 趙愛玲;企業(yè)財務(wù)危機(jī)的識別與分析[J];財經(jīng)理論與實踐;2000年06期

，

本文編號：2253875