基于Logistic模型A股制造業(yè)財務危機預警模型研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-09 20:46
【摘要】：自2008年全球金融危機爆發(fā)以來，先是金融行業(yè)的危機，，美國、英國多家銀行，投資機構破產倒閉，緊接著金融行業(yè)的危機蔓延到實體經濟，世界范圍內的實體經濟衰退，美國，歐洲，日本等大國和地區(qū)經濟一蹶不振，GDP增長緩慢，甚至負增長，失業(yè)率升高，社會不穩(wěn)定因素增加。連帶著新興國家的經濟也遭受巨大影響，我國企業(yè)大量破產，特別是沿海地區(qū)的制造業(yè)大量破產，企業(yè)失去訂單，最終企業(yè)家失去自己的企業(yè)，成批成批工人失去工作，從沿海地區(qū)返回自己的家鄉(xiāng)。制造業(yè)作為一個國家經濟建設發(fā)展的基礎，它的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展至關重要，而上市制造業(yè)企業(yè)的財務狀況與企業(yè)的發(fā)展息息相關。本文主要研究A股市場制造行業(yè)財務穩(wěn)定情況及財務預警模型。 全文總共分為五部分。第一章介紹了研究背景和研究內容與結構，說明中國制造業(yè)的發(fā)展對于國家經濟的重要作用，強調分析制造業(yè)財務穩(wěn)定及研究制造業(yè)財務預警的意義，并且對財務危機的內涵作了界定。第二章主要介紹財務危機理論與參數模型方法。財務危機理論主要介紹災害理論和斯科特的四個理論模型。參數模型中主要介紹了一元判斷分析模型、多元判斷分析模型和Logistic模型及各個模型的優(yōu)點和局限性。在第二章的最后介紹了本文建模過程中使用到的一種統(tǒng)計方法主成分分析法。第三章主要介紹了制造業(yè)上市企業(yè)現狀及財務危機成因，分析了我國制造上市企業(yè)財務危機的特點，并且主要分析財務危機企業(yè)與財務正常企業(yè)在財務指標上的區(qū)別。第四章是針對我國制造上市企業(yè)建立財務危機預警Logistic模型，首先對樣本進行選擇，然后針對制造行業(yè)選擇財務指標，本文選取的指標為F分數模型中取值的指標，然后利用顯著性檢驗和多重共線性檢驗，所選指標通過了顯著性檢驗，但所選取指標之間存在多重共線性，利用主成分分析解決多重共線性，求出主成分后再基于主成分進行Logistic模型回歸，建立全新我國制造行業(yè)的Logistic模型，最后對新建的Logistic模型進行檢驗，檢驗模型的預測準確度及預測能力。第五章總結了新設計的Logistic模型的優(yōu)缺點，分析了新模型的優(yōu)點和局限性，并且對后續(xù)的研究提出了相關建議，進行了展望。
[Abstract]:Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, first the crisis of the financial industry, the bankruptcy of many banks and investment institutions in the United States and Britain, followed by the crisis in the financial industry spread to the real economy, the real economy in the world, the United States, In Europe, Japan and other big countries and regions, the economic slump has contributed to the slow or even negative growth of GDP, the rise in unemployment and the increase in social instability. Along with the economic impact of emerging countries, China's enterprises have suffered a great deal of bankruptcy, especially in the coastal areas of the manufacturing sector. Enterprises have lost their orders. Finally, entrepreneurs have lost their own businesses and workers have lost their jobs. Return from the coast to your hometown. As the foundation of a country's economic construction and development, the steady development of manufacturing industry is of great importance, and the financial situation of listed manufacturing enterprises is closely related to the development of enterprises. This paper focuses on the A-share market manufacturing industry financial stability and financial warning model. The full text is divided into five parts altogether. The first chapter introduces the background, content and structure of the research, explains the important role of the development of Chinese manufacturing industry in the national economy, and emphasizes the significance of analyzing the financial stability of manufacturing industry and studying the financial early warning of manufacturing industry. And has made the definition to the financial crisis connotation. The second chapter mainly introduces the financial crisis theory and parameter model method. Financial crisis theory mainly introduces disaster theory and Scott's four theoretical models. In the parameter model, the advantages and limitations of the univariate judgment analysis model, the multivariate judgment analysis model, the Logistic model and each model are introduced. At the end of the second chapter, a statistical method, Principal component Analysis (PCA), is introduced. The third chapter mainly introduces the current situation of manufacturing listed enterprises and the causes of financial crisis, analyzes the characteristics of financial crisis of manufacturing listed enterprises in China, and mainly analyzes the differences between financial crisis enterprises and financial normal enterprises in financial indicators. The fourth chapter is the establishment of financial crisis warning Logistic model for manufacturing listed enterprises in China. First, the sample is selected, then the financial index is selected for manufacturing industry. The index selected in this paper is the index of F-score model. Then, by using significance test and multiple collinearity test, the selected index passed the significance test, but there was multiple collinearity between the selected indexes, and principal component analysis was used to solve the multiple collinearity. The principal component is obtained and then the Logistic model is regressed based on the principal component, and the new Logistic model of manufacturing industry in China is established. Finally, the new Logistic model is tested to test the prediction accuracy and prediction ability of the model. Chapter 5 summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the newly designed Logistic model, analyzes the advantages and limitations of the new model, and puts forward some suggestions and prospects for further research.
【學位授予單位】：湖南科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F425;F406.7
本文編號：2233523
[Abstract]:Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, first the crisis of the financial industry, the bankruptcy of many banks and investment institutions in the United States and Britain, followed by the crisis in the financial industry spread to the real economy, the real economy in the world, the United States, In Europe, Japan and other big countries and regions, the economic slump has contributed to the slow or even negative growth of GDP, the rise in unemployment and the increase in social instability. Along with the economic impact of emerging countries, China's enterprises have suffered a great deal of bankruptcy, especially in the coastal areas of the manufacturing sector. Enterprises have lost their orders. Finally, entrepreneurs have lost their own businesses and workers have lost their jobs. Return from the coast to your hometown. As the foundation of a country's economic construction and development, the steady development of manufacturing industry is of great importance, and the financial situation of listed manufacturing enterprises is closely related to the development of enterprises. This paper focuses on the A-share market manufacturing industry financial stability and financial warning model. The full text is divided into five parts altogether. The first chapter introduces the background, content and structure of the research, explains the important role of the development of Chinese manufacturing industry in the national economy, and emphasizes the significance of analyzing the financial stability of manufacturing industry and studying the financial early warning of manufacturing industry. And has made the definition to the financial crisis connotation. The second chapter mainly introduces the financial crisis theory and parameter model method. Financial crisis theory mainly introduces disaster theory and Scott's four theoretical models. In the parameter model, the advantages and limitations of the univariate judgment analysis model, the multivariate judgment analysis model, the Logistic model and each model are introduced. At the end of the second chapter, a statistical method, Principal component Analysis (PCA), is introduced. The third chapter mainly introduces the current situation of manufacturing listed enterprises and the causes of financial crisis, analyzes the characteristics of financial crisis of manufacturing listed enterprises in China, and mainly analyzes the differences between financial crisis enterprises and financial normal enterprises in financial indicators. The fourth chapter is the establishment of financial crisis warning Logistic model for manufacturing listed enterprises in China. First, the sample is selected, then the financial index is selected for manufacturing industry. The index selected in this paper is the index of F-score model. Then, by using significance test and multiple collinearity test, the selected index passed the significance test, but there was multiple collinearity between the selected indexes, and principal component analysis was used to solve the multiple collinearity. The principal component is obtained and then the Logistic model is regressed based on the principal component, and the new Logistic model of manufacturing industry in China is established. Finally, the new Logistic model is tested to test the prediction accuracy and prediction ability of the model. Chapter 5 summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the newly designed Logistic model, analyzes the advantages and limitations of the new model, and puts forward some suggestions and prospects for further research.
【學位授予單位】：湖南科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F425;F406.7
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