本文關(guān)鍵詞： ZH商業(yè)項(xiàng)目 蒙特卡羅模擬 掙值分析　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：為了適應(yīng)社會進(jìn)步和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要,建筑施工項(xiàng)目經(jīng)歷了多次變革。對于項(xiàng)目本身目標(biāo)而言,項(xiàng)目總體進(jìn)度控制是十分重要的一個環(huán)節(jié)。項(xiàng)目總體成本控制實(shí)施的宗旨是為政府、企業(yè)及投資者節(jié)約成本。即在保證業(yè)主所要求質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和施工工期的前提下,通過合理的壓縮來加快進(jìn)度及節(jié)約成本,有效的減少建設(shè)過程中的浪費(fèi),從而獲取最佳效益。所以,本論文通過以ZH商業(yè)項(xiàng)目為例進(jìn)行研究,對于增加項(xiàng)目利潤和提高施工企業(yè)效益具有重要意義。本文主要做了如下工作： 首先,針對對項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度管理理論進(jìn)行了闡述,在對ZH商業(yè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行全面了解的基礎(chǔ)上分析了項(xiàng)目的進(jìn)度計(jì)劃,并在此基礎(chǔ)上估算了項(xiàng)目的工期和完工概率,為項(xiàng)目預(yù)測分析和對比分析打下基礎(chǔ)。 其次,針對項(xiàng)目成本管理理論進(jìn)行了論述,然后通過對ZH商業(yè)項(xiàng)目造價(jià)主要部分的計(jì)算和整合,在結(jié)合進(jìn)度的基礎(chǔ)上編制了項(xiàng)目成本計(jì)劃,并對比項(xiàng)目實(shí)際值進(jìn)行了項(xiàng)目成本結(jié)構(gòu)和盈虧分析。 最后,本文闡述了蒙特卡洛模擬的相關(guān)概念和實(shí)施過程,結(jié)合前文進(jìn)度成本分析,模擬分析了ZH商業(yè)項(xiàng)目的進(jìn)度。通過掙值法進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)ZH商業(yè)項(xiàng)目在實(shí)施過程中存在的問題,并從技術(shù)和組織上提出相應(yīng)的保證措施。 論文結(jié)合ZH商業(yè)項(xiàng)目,在經(jīng)過深入的理論學(xué)習(xí)和系統(tǒng)的梳理之后對其成本進(jìn)度進(jìn)行了分析,并結(jié)合項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際情況,綜合考慮工期和成本提出相應(yīng)的保證措施,為以后類似項(xiàng)目的成本進(jìn)度管理提供了一定的借鑒和參考意義。
[Abstract]:In order to meet the needs of social progress and economic development, the construction project has undergone many changes. Project overall progress control is a very important link. The purpose of project overall cost control implementation is for the government. Enterprises and investors economize cost. That is to say, under the premise of ensuring the quality standard and construction period required by the owner, we can speed up the progress and save the cost through reasonable compression, and effectively reduce the waste in the construction process. Therefore, this paper takes the ZH commercial project as an example, which is of great significance to increase the profit of the project and improve the benefit of the construction enterprise. The main work of this paper is as follows: First of all, according to the theory of project schedule management, the paper analyzes the progress plan of the project on the basis of comprehensive understanding of the ZH commercial project, and estimates the project duration and completion probability on this basis. For the project prediction analysis and comparative analysis to lay the foundation. Secondly, the project cost management theory is discussed, and then through the calculation and integration of the main part of the ZH commercial project cost, the project cost plan is compiled on the basis of the schedule. And compared with the actual value of the project cost structure and profit and loss analysis. Finally, this paper describes the Monte Carlo simulation of the relevant concepts and implementation process, combined with the previous progress cost analysis, the simulation analysis of the progress of ZH commercial projects, through the earned value method to analyze. The problems in the implementation of ZH commercial project are found, and the corresponding guarantee measures are put forward from the technical and organizational aspects. Combined with ZH commercial project, this paper analyzes the cost progress of ZH commercial project after in-depth theoretical study and systematic combing, and combines the actual situation of the project. Considering the time limit and cost synthetically, this paper puts forward the corresponding guarantee measures, which provides a certain reference and reference for the cost schedule management of similar projects in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F285;F299.23

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