本文關鍵詞：實物期權理論在H公司新的化工項目投資決策中的應用研究　出處：《東華大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 公司項目投資 投資決策 實物期權 應用研究

【摘要】：作為市場活動的主要參與者，公司目前所面臨的競爭環(huán)境已經是一個不斷變化、難以預測的環(huán)境，其投資經營活動也受到各種可能隨時突發(fā)和不可控制因素的影響。在企業(yè)對期限長和不確定性高的項目投資的決策過程中，傳統(tǒng)的決策分析方法（如NPV法）已經無法對公司項目投資進行有效的決策分析，決策分析者急需采用更為先進的風險管理和決策分析方法進行項目評估，為企業(yè)決策者提供準確的決策支持，從而做出正確的判斷和決策。實物期權方法，借鑒于系統(tǒng)的金融期權理論和模型，作為一種新的能夠包括管理柔性的估值思想和方法，充分體現(xiàn)出了在處理投資項目不確定性與靈活性的優(yōu)勢，不但反映項目創(chuàng)造的預期現(xiàn)金流的貼現(xiàn)值，而且也體現(xiàn)出項目運作過程中管理者進行積極管理所創(chuàng)造出的價值，對傳統(tǒng)的決策方法進行了重要的擴展、補充及修正。 本文首先按照時間脈絡對國內外有關實物期權理論和方法的研究進行了綜合介紹，概述了實物期權方法的理論基礎，，結合金融期權理論闡述實物期權的概念及分類、實物期權特征以其主要的定價模型；然后，在說明公司項目投資的一般特點和介紹某外資公司H公司計劃新建工廠項目的投資背景的基礎上，討論了H公司項目投資決策方法的比較和選擇思路，通過將實物期權方法和傳統(tǒng)投資分析方法進行比較分析，闡述了實物期權方法的適用性、應用思路及步驟；最后，通過對H公司實際項目投資案例的決策分析來分別說明傳統(tǒng)凈現(xiàn)值法和實物期權方法在項目投資決策中的實際應用，與傳統(tǒng)凈現(xiàn)值法行比較，論證了實物期權法是項目投資決策分析和價值計算中的更為有效的方法。 本文結合H公司的化工項目投資的實際決策分析案例，研究了實物期權方法在企業(yè)項目投資分析中的實際應用，闡明了實物期權方法對于企業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值創(chuàng)造機會、制定決策和管理風險以確保企業(yè)價值最大化的重要戰(zhàn)略意義。
[Abstract]:As the main participants in market activities, the competitive environment that companies are facing is already a constantly changing and unpredictable environment. Its investment and management activities are also affected by a variety of unexpected and uncontrollable factors at any time. In the decision-making process of enterprises to project investment with long term and high uncertainty. The traditional decision analysis method (such as NPV method) has been unable to carry on the effective decision analysis to the company project investment, the decision analyst urgently needs to adopt the more advanced risk management and the decision analysis method to carry on the project appraisal. To provide accurate decision support for enterprise decision-makers, so as to make correct judgment and decision. The real option method is used for reference to the financial option theory and model of the system. As a new valuation idea and method which can include management flexibility, it fully reflects the advantages of dealing with uncertainty and flexibility of investment projects, and not only reflects the discounted value of expected cash flow created by projects. It also reflects the value created by the active management of the managers in the process of project operation, which extends, complements and modifies the traditional decision-making methods. This paper firstly introduces the theories and methods of real options at home and abroad according to the context of time, and summarizes the theoretical basis of real options. Based on the theory of financial options, the concept and classification of real options are expounded. The characteristics of real options are based on their main pricing models. Then, on the basis of explaining the general characteristics of the company's project investment and introducing the investment background of a foreign-funded company's planned new factory project, this paper discusses the comparison of the investment decision methods and the selection ideas of the H company's project investment. By comparing the real option method with the traditional investment analysis method, this paper expounds the applicability, application thought and steps of the real option method. Finally, through the decision analysis of H Company's actual project investment case, the paper explains the practical application of traditional NPV method and real option method in project investment decision, and compares with the traditional NPV method. It is proved that the real option method is a more effective method in project investment decision analysis and value calculation. This paper studies the application of real option method in the investment analysis of chemical project in H Company, which is based on the actual decision analysis case of chemical project investment in H Company. This paper expounds the important strategic significance of real option method in creating opportunities for enterprises to find value, making decisions and managing risks to ensure the maximization of enterprise value.
【學位授予單位】：東華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.72;F406.7

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 涂玉龍;;實物期權下的企業(yè)投資決策研究[J];財會通訊;2011年09期

2 鮑國俊;;實物期權在企業(yè)投資決策中的應用研究[J];河南財政稅務高等專科學校學報;2006年06期

3 許民利,張子剛;應用實物期權理論評價R&D投資[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2001年01期

4 何曉潔;基于經營性期權的投資決策[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2001年04期

5 范龍振,唐國興;投資機會價值的期權評價方法[J];管理工程學報;2000年04期

6 陳永慶,王浣塵;期權理念在風險投資決策中的應用[J];管理工程學報;2001年02期

7 劉兵軍,歐陽令南;實物期權在企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略投資中的運用研究[J];工業(yè)工程與管理;2003年03期

8 安瑛暉,張維;期權博弈理論的方法模型分析與發(fā)展[J];管理科學學報;2001年01期

9 李恩平;趙紅瑞;蘇文;;高新技術企業(yè)多階段風險投資價值評估研究——基于實物期權視角[J];經濟問題;2011年05期

10 夏健明,陳元志;實物期權理論評述[J];上海金融學院學報;2005年01期

相關碩士學位論文 前4條

1 楊競萌;實物期權在項目投資決策中的應用[D];東北財經大學;2010年

2 師欣;風險投資決策中實物期權法的應用研究[D];中國地質大學（北京）;2011年

3 寧曉靜;實物期權在企業(yè)投資決策中的應用[D];西南財經大學;2008年

4 吳瓊;實物期權在石油勘探投資項目中的應用研究[D];東北石油大學;2013年

本文編號：1440888