【摘要】：21世紀(jì),隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的深入發(fā)展,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施迎來(lái)了前所未有的發(fā)展機(jī)遇,在全球高鐵需求市場(chǎng)旺盛背景下,中國(guó)高鐵以低成本、高質(zhì)量的獨(dú)特優(yōu)勢(shì)迅速走出國(guó)門,積極參與海外以“低碳、節(jié)約、綠色環(huán)�！睘楹诵牡母哞F市場(chǎng)建設(shè),成為未來(lái)對(duì)外投資中一個(gè)極具成長(zhǎng)性項(xiàng)目。雖然我國(guó)高鐵市場(chǎng)的出現(xiàn)以及建立都晚于日本、歐美等高鐵國(guó)家,但是我國(guó)高鐵市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)速度快,在中國(guó)政府主導(dǎo)下,中國(guó)高鐵通過(guò)“引進(jìn)、吸收、創(chuàng)新”的發(fā)展模式,其配套設(shè)備、相關(guān)技術(shù)不斷創(chuàng)新發(fā)展,據(jù)有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)高速鐵路運(yùn)營(yíng)里程和高速鐵路建設(shè)規(guī)模已經(jīng)超越世界各國(guó),成為世界上高鐵大國(guó)。但是,中國(guó)高鐵對(duì)外投資是一個(gè)全新的領(lǐng)域,會(huì)遭遇各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且是未來(lái)中國(guó)高鐵對(duì)外投資中無(wú)法回避的一個(gè)新問(wèn)題。中國(guó)高鐵對(duì)外投資具有項(xiàng)目系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜、投資金額大、投資周期長(zhǎng)、技術(shù)要求高,收益回報(bào)周期長(zhǎng)等特點(diǎn),故在項(xiàng)目的投資過(guò)程中必定會(huì)存在各種不確定因素影響中國(guó)高鐵對(duì)外投資的效益,通過(guò)對(duì)影響或者形成中國(guó)對(duì)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響因素進(jìn)行梳理總結(jié),本文側(cè)重從系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和非系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)兩方面進(jìn)行全面系統(tǒng)分析,系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要包括中國(guó)高鐵投資目標(biāo)國(guó)國(guó)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、法律法規(guī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等不受投資主體控制的外部市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；非系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指投資主體自身原因所造成的投資活動(dòng)的不確定,包括中國(guó)高鐵對(duì)外投資主要是在中國(guó)在政府主導(dǎo)下,而不是基于全球高鐵市場(chǎng)供求規(guī)律,這在一定程度上能夠減少高鐵對(duì)外投資的障礙,轉(zhuǎn)移國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩,提高海外市場(chǎng)利用率,但是一方面卻為高鐵對(duì)外投資埋下了隱患。本文在梳理有關(guān)對(duì)外直接投資理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合中國(guó)高鐵在世界市場(chǎng)上的投資現(xiàn)狀,瞄準(zhǔn)影響中國(guó)高鐵對(duì)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的不確定因素,分析高鐵對(duì)外投資的相關(guān)資料,劃分影響高鐵對(duì)外投資的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和非系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn),結(jié)合專家調(diào)查法,收集整合專家們的意見(jiàn),并結(jié)合實(shí)地考察,口頭咨詢,查閱相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的方式,識(shí)別和分析評(píng)價(jià)中國(guó)高鐵投資過(guò)程中的不確定因素對(duì)中國(guó)高鐵對(duì)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平的影響比重,并對(duì)它們深入剖析,層次分類,然后建立有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素指標(biāo)體系,并使用MATLAB軟件計(jì)算各個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)權(quán)重,建立有效的中國(guó)高體對(duì)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平指標(biāo)體系,并借助AHP模糊綜合評(píng)估模型,全面度量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平,且對(duì)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果使用三種原則綜合評(píng)估,得出高鐵對(duì)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平屬于低下等。最后,文章針對(duì)高鐵對(duì)外投資提出對(duì)策建議來(lái)規(guī)避對(duì)外投資中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以期為高鐵對(duì)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平評(píng)估與規(guī)避提供思路,為新興工業(yè)國(guó)家對(duì)外投資經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型作出一定借鑒。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, with the deepening development of economic globalization, infrastructure has ushered in unprecedented opportunities for development. Against the background of the booming global high-speed rail demand market, China's high-speed rail has rapidly gone abroad with its unique advantages of low cost and high quality. Taking an active part in the construction of high speed rail market with "low carbon, saving and green environment" as the core of overseas, it has become a very growth project in the future foreign investment. Although the emergence and establishment of China's high-speed rail market is later than that of high-speed rail countries such as Japan, Europe and the United States, the high-speed rail market in China has grown rapidly. Under the leadership of the Chinese government, high-speed rail in China has been developed through the "import, absorption, and innovation" development model. According to statistics, China's domestic high-speed railway operation mileage and high-speed railway construction scale has surpassed the world countries, become the world's high-speed rail power. However, China's high-speed rail outbound investment is a new area, will encounter a variety of risks, and will be the future of high-speed rail foreign investment in China can not avoid a new problem. Foreign investment in high-speed rail in China is characterized by complex project systems, large investment amount, long investment cycle, high technical requirements, and long return period. Therefore, in the investment process of the project, there must be a variety of uncertain factors that affect the benefit of China's high-speed railway foreign investment, and the influence factors that affect or form the risk of China's foreign investment are summarized through combing and summing up the factors that affect or form the risk of China's foreign investment. This paper focuses on systemic risk and non-systemic risk. The systemic risk includes country risk and economic risk in the target country of high-speed rail investment in China. The external market risks, such as the risks of laws and regulations, which are not controlled by the investors; Non-systemic risk refers to the uncertainty of investment activities caused by the investors' own causes, including the fact that China's foreign investment in high-speed rail is mainly under the leadership of the Chinese government, rather than based on the laws of supply and demand in the global high-speed rail market. To some extent, this can reduce the barriers to foreign investment in high-speed rail, transfer domestic overcapacity and improve the utilization rate of overseas markets, but it has created a hidden problem for foreign investment in high-speed rail. On the basis of combing the theoretical research on foreign direct investment (FDI), combined with the current investment situation of China's high-speed rail in the world market, this paper aims at the uncertain factors that affect the risk of China's high-speed rail investment abroad, and analyzes the relevant data of high-speed rail's foreign investment. Dividing the systematic and non-systematic risks that affect foreign investment in high-speed rail, combining the expert investigation method, collecting and integrating the opinions of the experts, and combining the field visits, oral consultation, and the way of consulting the relevant literature. To identify and evaluate the impact of the uncertain factors in the investment process of China's high-speed rail on the risk level of China's high-speed rail foreign investment, and to analyze and classify them in depth, and then to establish an effective index system of risk factors. The risk weight of each risk factor is calculated by using MATLAB software, and an effective index system of Chinese high body foreign investment risk level is established. With the help of AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the risk level is comprehensively measured. Using three principles to evaluate the evaluation results, it is concluded that the risk level of foreign investment in high-speed rail is low. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to avoid the risks in the foreign investment of high-speed rail, in order to provide some ideas for the evaluation and avoidance of the risk level of foreign investment of high-speed rail, and to make certain reference for the economic transformation of foreign investment in the emerging industrial countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F532;F125

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