中國沿海港口吞吐量增長放緩的時間段判斷
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-07 18:38
【摘要】：改革開放以來，隨著經濟和對外貿易的快速發(fā)展，我國沿海港口取得了跨越式的發(fā)展，港口吞吐量呈高速增長態(tài)勢。這一現象誘發(fā)了國內建設港口的熱潮，新建港口大規(guī)模擴大。然而港口吞吐量的增長最終會趨向飽和，按照目前的港口建設步伐將會出現沿海港口產能過剩。因此，提前及時地開展沿海港口吞吐量增長預警研究，通過相關政策控制港口建設步伐顯得意義重大。 本文運用國際貿易、國際物流等相關理論，對港口發(fā)展的理論與實踐問題進行了探索與研究。結合港口發(fā)展的相關理論，本文主要開展了以4點工作：（一）重新定義了本文所涉及到的港口吞吐量增長放緩的時間段，通過分析已完成工業(yè)化國家及地區(qū)的港口吞吐量增長演變過程論證了港口吞吐量增長規(guī)律，并且對港口吞吐量增長與經貿指標之間的內在聯系進行了深入的研究。（二）從歷史角度研究了日韓港口吞吐量的增長演變過程，并在對港口吞吐量與經貿指標之間進行了相關性研究的基礎上，分析歸納了其港口吞吐量增長放緩時間段所呈現的GDP、人均GDP、對外貿易及產業(yè)結構的規(guī)律性特征。（三）在分析我國港口與經貿發(fā)展狀況的基礎上，一方面分別通過Logistic模型、ARIMA模型及球面降維成分數據法對我國GDP、對外貿易量、產業(yè)結構等經貿指標的未來增長趨勢進行預測，并結合日韓國家港口吞吐量增長放緩時間段所呈現的這些經貿指標的規(guī)律性特征，探討出我國港口吞吐量增長放緩的時間段。另一方面根據已論證的港口吞吐量增長規(guī)律，建立Logistic模型來預測我國沿海港口吞吐量增長演變過程，，得出我國沿海港口吞吐量增長放緩的時間段。（四）基于本文的主要研究結論，提出我國沿海港口發(fā)展的調控建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of economy and foreign trade, the coastal ports of our country have made leapfrog development, and the port throughput is increasing at a high speed. This phenomenon induces the upsurge of domestic construction port, the large-scale expansion of new port. However, the growth of port throughput will eventually become saturated, and there will be excess capacity in coastal ports at the present pace of port construction. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out early warning research on port throughput growth in advance and to control the pace of port construction through relevant policies. Based on the relevant theories of international trade and international logistics, this paper explores and studies the theory and practice of port development. Combined with the relevant theory of port development, this paper mainly carries out four points of work: (1) redefining the period of port throughput growth slowdown, Through analyzing the evolution process of port throughput growth in industrialized countries and regions, the law of port throughput growth is demonstrated, and the internal relationship between port throughput growth and economic and trade indexes is deeply studied. (2) from the historical point of view, the paper studies the evolution of port throughput in Japan and Korea, and studies the correlation between port throughput and economic and trade indicators. The characteristics of GDP, per capita GDP, foreign trade and industrial structure in the period of slow growth of port throughput are analyzed and summarized. (3) on the basis of analyzing the development of port and economy and trade in China, on the one hand, through Logistic model Arima model and spherical dimension reduction component data method, the future growth trend of China's GDP, foreign trade volume, industrial structure and other economic and trade indicators are forecasted. Combining with the regular characteristics of these economic and trade indexes in the period when the port throughput growth of Japan and Korea is slowing down, this paper discusses the time period when the port throughput growth of our country is slowing down. On the other hand, according to the proven law of port throughput growth, Logistic model is established to predict the evolution process of China's coastal port throughput growth, and the time period for the slowdown of China's coastal port throughput growth is obtained. (4) based on the main conclusions of this paper, some suggestions on the regulation and control of the development of China's coastal ports are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：寧波大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F552
本文編號：2255258
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of economy and foreign trade, the coastal ports of our country have made leapfrog development, and the port throughput is increasing at a high speed. This phenomenon induces the upsurge of domestic construction port, the large-scale expansion of new port. However, the growth of port throughput will eventually become saturated, and there will be excess capacity in coastal ports at the present pace of port construction. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out early warning research on port throughput growth in advance and to control the pace of port construction through relevant policies. Based on the relevant theories of international trade and international logistics, this paper explores and studies the theory and practice of port development. Combined with the relevant theory of port development, this paper mainly carries out four points of work: (1) redefining the period of port throughput growth slowdown, Through analyzing the evolution process of port throughput growth in industrialized countries and regions, the law of port throughput growth is demonstrated, and the internal relationship between port throughput growth and economic and trade indexes is deeply studied. (2) from the historical point of view, the paper studies the evolution of port throughput in Japan and Korea, and studies the correlation between port throughput and economic and trade indicators. The characteristics of GDP, per capita GDP, foreign trade and industrial structure in the period of slow growth of port throughput are analyzed and summarized. (3) on the basis of analyzing the development of port and economy and trade in China, on the one hand, through Logistic model Arima model and spherical dimension reduction component data method, the future growth trend of China's GDP, foreign trade volume, industrial structure and other economic and trade indicators are forecasted. Combining with the regular characteristics of these economic and trade indexes in the period when the port throughput growth of Japan and Korea is slowing down, this paper discusses the time period when the port throughput growth of our country is slowing down. On the other hand, according to the proven law of port throughput growth, Logistic model is established to predict the evolution process of China's coastal port throughput growth, and the time period for the slowdown of China's coastal port throughput growth is obtained. (4) based on the main conclusions of this paper, some suggestions on the regulation and control of the development of China's coastal ports are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：寧波大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F552
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