基于旅客選擇行為的客運(yùn)專線收益管理研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-16 10:37
【摘要】：為滿足城際間日益增長(zhǎng)的旅客運(yùn)輸需求,我國在建設(shè)“四縱四橫”客運(yùn)專線的同時(shí),正在進(jìn)一步延伸并擴(kuò)大快速客運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的覆蓋范圍�？瓦\(yùn)專線的建設(shè)和運(yùn)營,很大程度上緩解了鐵路客運(yùn)能力瓶頸問題,也不可避免地加劇了國內(nèi)客運(yùn)市場(chǎng)各種運(yùn)輸方式之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),導(dǎo)致客運(yùn)專線市場(chǎng)化運(yùn)營趨勢(shì)進(jìn)一步得到體現(xiàn)。美、法、英、德等國家鐵路客運(yùn)公司的多年來市場(chǎng)化運(yùn)營經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,收益管理是優(yōu)化運(yùn)力結(jié)構(gòu)和資源配置、提高鐵路競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和運(yùn)營收益的有效方法。因此,開展客運(yùn)專線收益管理研究,尤其是基于旅客選擇行為、而不是僅從客運(yùn)專線公司角度開展收益管理研究,不僅體現(xiàn)了以旅客為本的思想,也隸屬于收益管理研究中的熱點(diǎn),具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,為客運(yùn)專線實(shí)施收益管理提供了借鑒和新視角。本文第一章從理論研究和規(guī)劃實(shí)踐兩個(gè)方面分析了選題背景,闡述了客運(yùn)專線實(shí)施收益管理的可行性、必要性和開展收益管理研究的意義,并在對(duì)鐵路收益管理應(yīng)用和研究現(xiàn)狀系統(tǒng)分析的基礎(chǔ)上闡述了有待研究的問題。第二章對(duì)收益管理和旅客選擇行為的研究成果進(jìn)行了綜述,從而有效把握了收益管理的發(fā)展歷程、基本內(nèi)涵、研究?jī)?nèi)容及基礎(chǔ)模型,明確了動(dòng)態(tài)定價(jià)和存量控制兩種收益管理手段的研究現(xiàn)狀和前沿動(dòng)態(tài),了解了消費(fèi)者選擇行為基礎(chǔ)理論和收益管理中常見的消費(fèi)者選擇行為類型,為后文展開提供了研究依據(jù),并奠定了工作基礎(chǔ)。第三章構(gòu)建了旅客對(duì)客運(yùn)專線產(chǎn)品的總體評(píng)價(jià)關(guān)于安全、舒適、速度、頻率、準(zhǔn)點(diǎn)、價(jià)格、便捷七項(xiàng)屬性評(píng)價(jià)的混合回歸模型,并采用EM算法估計(jì)回歸系數(shù),根據(jù)貝葉斯統(tǒng)計(jì)理論計(jì)算旅客屬于各類型的概率,利用貝葉斯信息標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和赤池信息標(biāo)準(zhǔn)判定旅客種類個(gè)數(shù)。結(jié)合武廣客運(yùn)專線旅客問卷調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),將旅客市場(chǎng)細(xì)分為四種類型,并對(duì)不同類型旅客的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)特征和出行需求特征進(jìn)行關(guān)聯(lián)分析。第四章借助保留價(jià)格刻畫旅客選擇行為,并假設(shè)預(yù)訂相同路徑客票的旅客的保留價(jià)格獨(dú)立且服從同一分布,結(jié)合已知票價(jià)集合和需求概率,根據(jù)Bellman最優(yōu)化原理,構(gòu)建動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)劃模型,使得可通過票價(jià)的動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)整來最優(yōu)化客運(yùn)專線期望收益。進(jìn)一步證得,客票的最優(yōu)價(jià)格隨著其邊際期望收益的增大而提高,單區(qū)段和兩區(qū)段客運(yùn)專線的最優(yōu)票價(jià)策略具有閥值特性。第五章針對(duì)兩個(gè)票價(jià)等級(jí)、多個(gè)區(qū)段的客運(yùn)專線收益優(yōu)化問題,假設(shè)旅客存在buy-up行為且其概率已知,在給定客票價(jià)格和需求分布的條件下,以各路徑客票的嵌套式預(yù)訂限制為決策變量,構(gòu)建帶約束的非線性整數(shù)規(guī)劃模型,并通過解生成點(diǎn)的獲取、初始粒子群的生成、粒子適應(yīng)值計(jì)算、粒子位置更新這四個(gè)步驟,實(shí)現(xiàn)了模型的求解。第六章針對(duì)多區(qū)段、多車次、多票價(jià)等級(jí)的客運(yùn)專線的收益優(yōu)化問題,借助偏好序刻畫旅客的選擇行為,在給定客票和旅客類別特征的條件下,以每個(gè)預(yù)售時(shí)段客票的控制策略為決策變量,構(gòu)建動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)劃模型。鑒于模型規(guī)模較大,構(gòu)建基于選擇的確定性線性規(guī)劃模型對(duì)其進(jìn)行近似,并采用列生成算法和遺傳模擬退火算法求解,進(jìn)而利用所得最優(yōu)對(duì)偶解對(duì)原動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)劃模型進(jìn)行啟發(fā)式分解,最終實(shí)現(xiàn)了客運(yùn)專線期望收益的近似優(yōu)化。
[Abstract]:In order to meet the increasing passenger transport demand between cities, China is extending and expanding the coverage of the rapid passenger transport network while building the "four vertical and four horizontal" passenger dedicated lines. Competition among various modes of transport in the airport has led to the further realization of the market-oriented operation trend of passenger dedicated lines. The experience of the United States, France, Britain, Germany and other national railway passenger transport companies over the years has shown that revenue management is an effective way to optimize the structure of transport capacity and resource allocation, and to enhance the competitiveness of the railway and operating income. Research on revenue management of PDL, especially on the basis of passenger choice behavior, rather than just from the perspective of PDL company, not only embodies the idea of passenger-oriented, but also belongs to the hotspot of revenue management research. It has important theoretical and practical significance, and provides a reference for the implementation of revenue management of PDL. The first chapter of this paper analyzes the background of the topic selection from two aspects of theoretical research and planning practice, expounds the feasibility, necessity and significance of carrying out revenue management research on passenger dedicated lines, and expounds the problems to be studied on the basis of systematic analysis of the application and research status of railway revenue management. This paper summarizes the research results of revenue management and passenger choice behavior, thus effectively grasping the development process, basic connotation, research content and basic model of revenue management, clarifying the research status and frontier trends of dynamic pricing and inventory control, and understanding the basic theory and benefits of consumer choice behavior. Chapter 3 establishes a mixed regression model of seven attributes evaluation of passenger dedicated line products, including safety, comfort, speed, frequency, punctuality, price and convenience, and estimates the regression coefficient with EM algorithm. According to Bayesian statistical theory, the probability of different types of passengers is calculated, and the number of types of passengers is determined by Bayesian information standard and Chichi information standard.Combining with the questionnaire survey data of passengers on Wuhan-Guangzhou passenger dedicated line, the passenger market is divided into four types, and the socio-economic characteristics and travel demand characteristics of different types of passengers are related. In Chapter 4, the reserved price is used to characterize the behavior of passenger selection, and the reserved price is assumed to be independent and subject to the same distribution. Combining with the known fare set and demand probability, a dynamic programming model is constructed based on Bellman optimization principle to optimize the passenger dedicated transport system through the dynamic adjustment of the fare. It is further proved that the optimal price of passenger tickets increases with the increase of marginal expected revenue, and the optimal fare strategies for single and two-section passenger dedicated lines have threshold characteristics. Under the condition of given ticket price and demand distribution, a nonlinear integer programming model with constraints is constructed by taking nested reservation constraints of each route ticket as decision variables. The model is solved by four steps: obtaining the solution generating points, generating the initial particle swarm, calculating the particle fitness value and updating the particle position. Six chapters are devoted to the revenue optimization of multi-section, multi-train and multi-fare passenger dedicated lines. With the help of preference order, the choice behavior of passengers is described. Under the condition of given ticket and passenger class characteristics, the dynamic programming model is constructed with the control strategy of each pre-booking period as the decision variable. The selected deterministic linear programming model is approximated and solved by column generation algorithm and genetic simulated annealing algorithm. Then the optimal dual solution is used to heuristically decompose the original dynamic programming model. Finally, the approximate optimization of the expected revenue of passenger dedicated line is realized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F532.6;U293
本文編號(hào)：2185728
[Abstract]:In order to meet the increasing passenger transport demand between cities, China is extending and expanding the coverage of the rapid passenger transport network while building the "four vertical and four horizontal" passenger dedicated lines. Competition among various modes of transport in the airport has led to the further realization of the market-oriented operation trend of passenger dedicated lines. The experience of the United States, France, Britain, Germany and other national railway passenger transport companies over the years has shown that revenue management is an effective way to optimize the structure of transport capacity and resource allocation, and to enhance the competitiveness of the railway and operating income. Research on revenue management of PDL, especially on the basis of passenger choice behavior, rather than just from the perspective of PDL company, not only embodies the idea of passenger-oriented, but also belongs to the hotspot of revenue management research. It has important theoretical and practical significance, and provides a reference for the implementation of revenue management of PDL. The first chapter of this paper analyzes the background of the topic selection from two aspects of theoretical research and planning practice, expounds the feasibility, necessity and significance of carrying out revenue management research on passenger dedicated lines, and expounds the problems to be studied on the basis of systematic analysis of the application and research status of railway revenue management. This paper summarizes the research results of revenue management and passenger choice behavior, thus effectively grasping the development process, basic connotation, research content and basic model of revenue management, clarifying the research status and frontier trends of dynamic pricing and inventory control, and understanding the basic theory and benefits of consumer choice behavior. Chapter 3 establishes a mixed regression model of seven attributes evaluation of passenger dedicated line products, including safety, comfort, speed, frequency, punctuality, price and convenience, and estimates the regression coefficient with EM algorithm. According to Bayesian statistical theory, the probability of different types of passengers is calculated, and the number of types of passengers is determined by Bayesian information standard and Chichi information standard.Combining with the questionnaire survey data of passengers on Wuhan-Guangzhou passenger dedicated line, the passenger market is divided into four types, and the socio-economic characteristics and travel demand characteristics of different types of passengers are related. In Chapter 4, the reserved price is used to characterize the behavior of passenger selection, and the reserved price is assumed to be independent and subject to the same distribution. Combining with the known fare set and demand probability, a dynamic programming model is constructed based on Bellman optimization principle to optimize the passenger dedicated transport system through the dynamic adjustment of the fare. It is further proved that the optimal price of passenger tickets increases with the increase of marginal expected revenue, and the optimal fare strategies for single and two-section passenger dedicated lines have threshold characteristics. Under the condition of given ticket price and demand distribution, a nonlinear integer programming model with constraints is constructed by taking nested reservation constraints of each route ticket as decision variables. The model is solved by four steps: obtaining the solution generating points, generating the initial particle swarm, calculating the particle fitness value and updating the particle position. Six chapters are devoted to the revenue optimization of multi-section, multi-train and multi-fare passenger dedicated lines. With the help of preference order, the choice behavior of passengers is described. Under the condition of given ticket and passenger class characteristics, the dynamic programming model is constructed with the control strategy of each pre-booking period as the decision variable. The selected deterministic linear programming model is approximated and solved by column generation algorithm and genetic simulated annealing algorithm. Then the optimal dual solution is used to heuristically decompose the original dynamic programming model. Finally, the approximate optimization of the expected revenue of passenger dedicated line is realized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F532.6;U293
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