本文選題：全壽命周期 + 費用風險��； 參考：《西南交通大學》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：烏魯木齊軌道交通2號線是緩解老城區(qū)交通擁堵問題、促進烏魯木齊市整體發(fā)展的重要軌道交通骨干線路,為烏魯木齊邁向國際大都市進程帶來了機遇,其社會效益遠大于經(jīng)濟效益,但由于城市軌道交通項目是城市的主要公益性基礎(chǔ)設施,資金投入量巨大,項目自身投資回報率低,投資回收期長,因此,對其費用風險的控制就顯得尤為重要。為了及時控制2號線項目的總費用,在一定程度上保證項目的順利實施,本文對2號線項目的費用風險進行了研究�？紤]到2號線項目各個階段的費用風險可能會對后續(xù)階段的費用產(chǎn)生影響,所以不能夠?qū)⑵涓盍验_來分析,否則可能會出現(xiàn)僅關(guān)注局部風險較大的因素,而忽略了一些對項目全壽命周期費用影響較大的風險因素,從而喪失對項目費用風險大小的把握。因此,本文采用全壽命周期風險管理理論,對烏魯木齊軌道交通2號線項目的費用風險進行了探討,分析出其全壽命周期內(nèi)的費用風險因素,并用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)故障樹的方法,對這些費用風險因素進行排序,并提出費用風險應對方案。論文首先討論了2號線項目全壽命周期內(nèi)的所有費用風險因素。2號線項目可以劃分為決策階段、設計階段、招投標階段、實施階段和運營維護階段。其中,決策階段的費用風險為盲目擴大項目規(guī)�；蛱岣邩藴省⒑雎宰匀粭l件或社會因素以及缺乏類似項目的經(jīng)驗；設計階段的費用風險為設計深度不夠、設計方案不合理、重技術(shù)輕經(jīng)濟以及業(yè)主的不合理要求；招投標階段的費用風險為開展招投標的時間不合適、招標文件質(zhì)量不高、評標方法缺乏科學性以及合同問題；實施階段的費用風險為簽證管理的問題、業(yè)主不能按期提供施工條件、施工方案的問題以及不可抗力風險；運營維護階段的費用風險為運營策略的不合理和技術(shù)更新。其次,論文運用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)故障樹的方法,分析了費用風險因素的排序。盲目擴大項目規(guī)模和提高標準、業(yè)主的不合理要求和合同問題是烏魯木齊軌道交通2號線項目費用風險管理中最為重要的問題,必須高度重視。其次是運營策略的不合理,第三是招標文件質(zhì)量不高和不可抗力風險,第四是缺乏類似項目的經(jīng)驗、重技術(shù)輕經(jīng)濟和簽證管理的問題,第五是忽略自然條件和社會因素以及業(yè)主不能按期提供施工條件,第六是設計方案不合理和施工方案的問題,最后,評標方法缺乏科學性、技術(shù)更新、設計深度不夠和開展招投標的時間不合適重要程度依次遞減。最后,論文針對2號線項目全壽命周期內(nèi)的費用風險排序,從政策、管理、技術(shù)、運營及業(yè)務素質(zhì)五個方面提出控制方案,為實現(xiàn)2號線項目的費用風險控制提供了依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Urumqi Rail Transit Line 2 is an important rail transit backbone line to alleviate traffic congestion in old urban areas and promote the overall development of Urumqi, which brings opportunities for Urumqi to move towards an international metropolis. The social benefits are far greater than the economic benefits. However, because the urban rail transit project is the main public welfare infrastructure in the city, the amount of capital investment is huge, the rate of return on investment itself is low, and the payback period of investment is long. It is particularly important to control the cost risk. In order to control the total cost of Line 2 project in time and ensure the smooth implementation of the project to a certain extent, this paper studies the cost risk of Line 2 Project. Considering that the cost risk of each phase of the Line 2 project may have an impact on the costs of subsequent phases and that it cannot be analysed separately, otherwise factors that focus only on local risks may arise, Some risk factors which have a great influence on the whole life cycle cost of the project are neglected, so the risk of the project cost is lost. Therefore, by using the life-cycle risk management theory, this paper discusses the cost risk of Urumqi rail transit line 2 project, analyzes the cost risk factors in the whole life cycle, and uses the method of grey correlation fault tree to analyze the cost risk factors in Urumqi rail transit line 2 project. Sort these cost risk factors and propose a cost risk response plan. This paper first discusses all the cost risk factors in the whole life cycle of Line 2 project, which can be divided into decision-making stage, design stage, bidding stage, implementation stage and operation and maintenance stage. Among them, the cost risk in the decision-making stage is blindly expanding the project scale or raising the standard, ignoring the natural conditions or social factors and lacking the experience of similar projects, and the cost risk in the design stage is that the design depth is not enough and the design scheme is unreasonable. The cost risk of bidding stage is that the time of bidding is not suitable, the quality of bidding documents is not high, the evaluation method is lack of scientific and contract problems; The cost risk of the implementation phase is the problem of visa management, the owner can not provide the construction condition, the problem of the construction plan and the risk of force majeure on schedule; the cost risk of the operation and maintenance phase is the unreasonable operation strategy and the technical renewal. Secondly, the paper analyzes the ranking of cost risk factors by using the method of grey relational fault tree. It is the most important problem in the cost risk management of Urumqi Rail Transit Line 2 project to expand the project scale blindly and raise the standard. The unreasonable request and contract problem of the owner are the most important problems in the project cost risk management of Urumqi Rail Transit Line 2, which must be paid more attention to. The second is the unreasonable operation strategy, the third is the low quality of the bidding documents and the risk of force majeure, the fourth is the lack of experience in similar projects, the emphasis on technology over the economy and the issue of visa management. Fifth, ignoring the natural conditions and social factors and the owner's inability to provide the construction conditions on time. Sixth, the design scheme is unreasonable and the construction scheme is not. Finally, the bid evaluation method is not scientific and the technology is updated. The design depth is not enough and the time of bidding is not suitable for the important degree of decline in turn. Finally, the paper puts forward the control scheme from five aspects of policy, management, technology, operation and business quality, which provides the basis for realizing the cost risk control of Line 2 project.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F572.88

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