本文選題：高鐵走出去　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的不斷深入發(fā)展,實(shí)施"走出去"戰(zhàn)略并參與國(guó)際資源重新配置已成為各國(guó)振興經(jīng)濟(jì)的一大重要舉措,也是各國(guó)發(fā)展的必然趨勢(shì)。在此經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下,我國(guó)高速鐵路經(jīng)過(guò)引進(jìn)、吸收、創(chuàng)新、再創(chuàng)造的過(guò)程,以震驚世界的速度躋身世界高鐵強(qiáng)國(guó)行列。自2009年我國(guó)提出高速鐵路"走出去"發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略之后,國(guó)家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人曾多次在海外宣傳及推介我國(guó)的高速鐵路,"中國(guó)高鐵"已然成為我國(guó)響亮的"國(guó)家名片",大力發(fā)展高鐵,實(shí)施高鐵"走出去"更是成為了我國(guó)的國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略。但是近年來(lái),我國(guó)高速鐵路"走出去"的道路并不順利,多個(gè)項(xiàng)目由于多種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素以失敗告終,我國(guó)政府及相關(guān)高鐵企業(yè)遭受了重大損失,因此,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究將是我國(guó)高速鐵路"走出去"戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施過(guò)程中的第一要?jiǎng)?wù)�；诖�,本文以完整的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究體系為框架,以"走出去"理論、對(duì)外投資理論及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合高鐵"走出去"重點(diǎn)案例及文獻(xiàn)綜述并通過(guò)焦點(diǎn)人群法及問(wèn)卷調(diào)查法篩選風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo),然后采用因子分析法建立起我國(guó)高速鐵路"走出去"的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素評(píng)價(jià)體系。接著本文以"莫斯科-喀山"項(xiàng)目為案例采用基于AHP的模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,繼而提出我國(guó)高速鐵路"走出去"的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制思路及對(duì)策分析。本文的研究結(jié)論如下:(1)從2005年我國(guó)中標(biāo)安伊高鐵至今,我國(guó)高速鐵路"走出去"的項(xiàng)目已有9個(gè)左右(本文以至少中標(biāo)項(xiàng)目或簽署合作協(xié)議為時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)的公開信息為準(zhǔn)),其中只有1條建成通車、1條簽署合作協(xié)議、1條處在勘查設(shè)計(jì)階段、1條開工建設(shè)、1條預(yù)計(jì)明年完工但已形成巨虧局面、4條以失敗告終,可以說(shuō)目前我國(guó)高鐵"走出去"成功率為11.11%,而失敗率高達(dá)55.56%,究其原因無(wú)不是因?yàn)榍捌趯?duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究不深而造成,因此,進(jìn)行嚴(yán)密的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究是極其重要的。(2)我國(guó)高速鐵路不同于其它產(chǎn)業(yè),在其"走出去"過(guò)程中有其特殊的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,最主要的因素如下:一是受國(guó)家政策影響較大;二是高速鐵路投資金額大且投資期限長(zhǎng),將面臨諸多潛在性風(fēng)險(xiǎn);三是高鐵"走出去"是一個(gè)系統(tǒng)性工程,涉及到母國(guó)及東道國(guó)包括政府在內(nèi)的多方機(jī)構(gòu)及公司,涉及到諸多產(chǎn)業(yè)等關(guān)聯(lián)資源,因此風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素龐雜。(3)利用基于AHP的模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)"莫斯科-喀山"高鐵進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析后發(fā)現(xiàn),政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中排名最高,超出第二名0.11,利用該方法對(duì)其他兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行分析同樣得到這個(gè)結(jié)論,因此對(duì)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)予以絕對(duì)高度重視,同時(shí)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)得分同樣很高,應(yīng)予以足夠重視。(4)經(jīng)過(guò)案例分析及實(shí)證研究可以發(fā)現(xiàn),雖然政治因素在我國(guó)高速鐵路"走出去"過(guò)程中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度最大,但幾乎每個(gè)項(xiàng)目都有其不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)表現(xiàn),阻礙項(xiàng)目進(jìn)程甚至導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目虧損或失敗,因此在對(duì)該項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行前期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究時(shí),在保證重點(diǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)重點(diǎn)防范的同時(shí),一定要最為全面地對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行分析,防患于未然,只有這樣,我國(guó)才能最大可能性地避免國(guó)家資源浪費(fèi)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous development of economic globalization, the implementation of the strategy of "going out" and participate in international reallocation of resources has become an important measure of national revitalization of the economy, is the inevitable trend of the development of all countries. In this economic context, China's high-speed railway through the introduction, absorption, innovation, the process of re creation, to shocked the world ranks among the world's high speed rail power. Since 2009, China has proposed high-speed railway development strategy of "going out", state leaders have repeatedly in overseas publicity and promotion of China's high-speed railway, "Chinese high iron" has become a "national name card" in our country, developing high-speed, high iron "going out" has become a national strategy in China. But in recent years, China's high-speed railway "going out" the road is not smooth, a number of projects due to various risk factors in failure, our government and relevant high iron Companies suffered a major loss, therefore, the research on risk management of high-speed railway will be the first priority of "going out" strategy in China in the process of implementation. Based on this, this paper research on the risk management of the complete system framework, in order to "go out" theory, foreign investment theory and risk management theory, combined with high speed "go out and focus on literature review case and through focus group and questionnaire survey were risk indicators, and then using the factor analysis method to establish the evaluation system of high speed railway in China" risk factors going out. Then the paper takes "the Moscow Kazan project as a case by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for empirical analysis based on AHP and then put forward the ideas and Countermeasures of risk control of high-speed railway in China" go out ". The conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) from the 2005 China's bid to the Anyi high-speed rail, high-speed railway in China" go out " The project has 9 or so (taking at least the winning project or signed a cooperation agreement for public information time shall prevail), of which only 1 completed, 1 signed a cooperation agreement, the 1 in the survey design stage, 1 under construction, 1 is expected to be completed next year but have formed a huge loss situation, to 4 failed, it can be said that the current high-speed rail in China "go out" the success rate was 11.11%, and the failure rate is as high as 55.56%, the reason is because the early stage of risk management research is not deep and caused, therefore, the risk management of tight is extremely important. (2) high speed railway in China in other industries, has its special risk factors in the "going out" process, the main factors are as follows: one is influenced by national policies; two high-speed railway is a large amount of investment and long investment period, will face many potential risks; three is the high-speed rail going out" Is a systematic project, many agencies involved in home and host countries including the government and companies involved in many industries and other related resources, so the complex risk factors. (3) the use of AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the "Moscow Kazan" high iron empirical analysis found that based on the highest political risk ranking at all risks, more than second 0.11, the other two projects were analyzed also came to this conclusion by using this method, so the political risks should be absolutely also attaches great importance to the financial risk, management risk, economic risk score is very high, we should pay enough attention to. (4) through the analysis and empirical study can be found, although the risk degree of political factors in the high speed railway in China "go out" in the process of the biggest, but almost every project has its different risk, hinder the project process and even lead to loss in the project Or failure. Therefore, in the early stage risk management research of the project, we must analyze the risk factors and prevent them at the same time, so that we can avoid the waste of national resources to the greatest extent.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F532.6;F125

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李劍;姜寶;邢曉丹;;全球供應(yīng)鏈視角下我國(guó)“走出去”戰(zhàn)略的新常態(tài)[J];華東經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2016年11期

2 王凡一;;“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略下我國(guó)對(duì)外投資的前景與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)縱橫;2016年07期

3 楊歡;吳殿廷;王三三;;中國(guó)“走出去”戰(zhàn)略的階段性及其策略研究[J];國(guó)際商務(wù)(對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào));2012年06期

4 王茹;;中國(guó)企業(yè)“走出去”面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及管控對(duì)策[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究參考;2012年38期

5 鄧雪;李家銘;曾浩健;陳俊羊;趙俊峰;;層次分析法權(quán)重計(jì)算方法分析及其應(yīng)用研究[J];數(shù)學(xué)的實(shí)踐與認(rèn)識(shí);2012年07期

6 郭梨;盧才武;楊震;;鐵礦石境外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型[J];微計(jì)算機(jī)信息;2012年02期

7 侯運(yùn)炳;楊娟;楊華;李維明;;基于模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)的鐵礦石海外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析[J];中國(guó)礦業(yè);2010年02期

8 付鈺;吳曉平;王甲生;;基于模糊-組合神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的信息系統(tǒng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估[J];海軍工程大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2010年01期

9 韓恩澤;朱穎超;張?jiān)谛?;基于Fuzzy-AHP的中國(guó)石油企業(yè)海外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)[J];河南科學(xué);2010年02期

10 董憲偉;蔡嗣經(jīng);金龍哲;楊志軍;;礦業(yè)海外投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素分析[J];中國(guó)礦業(yè);2008年02期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 葉珍;基于AHP的模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法研究及應(yīng)用[D];華南理工大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號(hào)：1726953