本文關(guān)鍵詞： 北極航線 東北航線 可計(jì)算一般均衡 經(jīng)濟(jì)影響　出處：《中國(guó)軟科學(xué)》2017年08期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：在氣候變暖作用下,北極航線開發(fā)再度成為全球關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。北極航線的大規(guī)模開發(fā)和使用對(duì)中國(guó)及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)均具有重要潛在影響,各國(guó)家或地區(qū)的受益程度構(gòu)成了其應(yīng)對(duì)戰(zhàn)略的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)。作者改進(jìn)了GTAP模型并自主開發(fā)了可計(jì)算一般均衡模擬系統(tǒng),對(duì)北極東北航線的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響開展了模擬研究。結(jié)果顯示,東北航線的使用促進(jìn)了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),但不同國(guó)家或地區(qū)的受益程度有所不同,包括中國(guó)在內(nèi)的東亞地區(qū)、歐盟等成為最大受益方。根據(jù)東北航線的地理特征及其對(duì)各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響差異,辨識(shí)了東北航線開發(fā)中存在的主要利益集團(tuán)及其所持觀點(diǎn),并據(jù)此提出了中國(guó)與各集團(tuán)的合作思路。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of climate warming, the development of Arctic routes has once again become the focus of global attention. The large-scale development and use of Arctic routes have important potential impacts on China and the global economy. The degree of benefit of each country or region constitutes the economic base of its coping strategy. The author has improved the GTAP model and independently developed a computable general equilibrium simulation system to simulate the economic impact of the Arctic northeast route. The results show that, The use of northeast routes has promoted global economic growth, but different countries or regions have different benefits. East Asia, including China, The European Union and others have become the biggest beneficiaries. According to the geographical characteristics of the northeast route and its economic impact on various economies, the main interest groups existing in the development of the northeast route and their views have been identified. Based on this, the cooperation between China and various groups is put forward.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院城市發(fā)展與環(huán)境研究所;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目“北極航道的發(fā)展前景、經(jīng)濟(jì)影響與中國(guó)的參與機(jī)制研究”(15CGJ024) 中國(guó)博士后科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目“地緣政治經(jīng)濟(jì)視角下碳關(guān)稅問題的多區(qū)域CGE模擬”(2013M541113)
【分類號(hào)】：F562
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本文編號(hào)：1543122