本文關(guān)鍵詞： 工業(yè)化 運(yùn)輸化 區(qū)域 互動(dòng) VAR　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：運(yùn)輸化是社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的前提條件,與工業(yè)化相伴相生。隨著工業(yè)化進(jìn)程的不斷推進(jìn),工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化之間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系也會(huì)在總量、結(jié)構(gòu)和質(zhì)量上隨著時(shí)間和區(qū)域的不同存在差異性。尤其是我國幅員遼闊,地理環(huán)境、歷史演變的差異導(dǎo)致我國不同區(qū)域工業(yè)化、運(yùn)輸化水平顯著不平衡。在如此差異之下它們之間相互作用特征也會(huì)存在顯著差異性。在理論分析方面,本文首先在前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)工業(yè)化和運(yùn)輸化進(jìn)行概念界定,構(gòu)建工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化相互作用的理論框架,并對(duì)我國工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化發(fā)展從總量、結(jié)構(gòu)和質(zhì)量上進(jìn)行了一個(gè)整體的觀測(cè)和把控,初步判定二者的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),總結(jié)和尋找二者的規(guī)律以及相關(guān)性。根據(jù)人均GDP、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、制造業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、城鎮(zhèn)化率和就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)綜合衡量和劃分當(dāng)前我國整體以及東中西部典型區(qū)域的工業(yè)化水平和所處的階段進(jìn)程�；谶@樣一種理論前提與區(qū)域劃分,在實(shí)證研究方面,本文利用我國2000-2015年典型區(qū)域的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),選取向量自回歸模型(VAR),運(yùn)用脈沖響應(yīng)分析方法,分析我國東、中、西部的典型區(qū)域(東部沿海地區(qū)、長江中游地區(qū)、大西北地區(qū))工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化相互動(dòng)態(tài)影響關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明..工業(yè)化發(fā)展與運(yùn)輸化發(fā)展的相互關(guān)系存在地區(qū)差異,主要體現(xiàn)在工業(yè)化水平較低的地區(qū),工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化的相互作用主要體現(xiàn)在第二產(chǎn)業(yè)與運(yùn)輸化總量層面的互動(dòng);工業(yè)化水平發(fā)展到一定階段,工業(yè)化對(duì)運(yùn)輸化的作用由運(yùn)輸總量開始擴(kuò)展到對(duì)運(yùn)輸化質(zhì)量的促進(jìn)作用,而運(yùn)輸化發(fā)展也開始在質(zhì)量維度對(duì)工業(yè)化產(chǎn)生正向作用;工業(yè)化發(fā)展到比較高級(jí)的階段,工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化在總量層面的相互作用開始減弱,工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化在質(zhì)量層面的相互作用開始凸顯,且在互動(dòng)關(guān)系中第三產(chǎn)業(yè)開始起到更重要的作用。本文主要研究結(jié)論包括三個(gè)方面:(1)一個(gè)地區(qū)隨著工業(yè)化水平和階段的不同,工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化相互關(guān)系的作用特征不盡相同;(2)我國不同經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化發(fā)展水平存在比較明顯的差異;(3)我國工業(yè)化水平高的東部地區(qū)工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化相互關(guān)系有從總量層面到質(zhì)量層面發(fā)展的趨勢(shì),且互動(dòng)過程中第三產(chǎn)業(yè)扮演著越來越重要的角色;在工業(yè)化水平不夠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)(如長江中游與大西北地區(qū))主要任務(wù)是提高經(jīng)濟(jì)水平,發(fā)展第二產(chǎn)業(yè),而工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化的總量之間存在顯著的互動(dòng)作用,尤其是中部地區(qū),承接了東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移,有很大的發(fā)展?jié)摿?工業(yè)化與運(yùn)輸化之間在各個(gè)層面的互動(dòng)關(guān)系最為顯著。最后,文章根據(jù)研究的結(jié)論提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Transportation is the prerequisite of social and economic development, and it is accompanied by industrialization. With the continuous progress of industrialization, the interaction between industrialization and transport will also be in the total amount. In terms of structure and quality, there are differences between different regions and time, especially the differences of China's vast territory, geographical environment and historical evolution lead to the industrialization of different regions in China. The level of transport is significantly unbalanced. Under such differences, there will also be significant differences in the characteristics of their interactions. Firstly, this paper defines the concept of industrialization and transportalization on the basis of previous research results, constructs the theoretical framework of the interaction between industrialization and transportalization, and develops the total amount of industrialization and transportalization in China. The structure and quality of a whole observation and control, preliminary determine the development trend of the two, sum up and find out the law and correlation between the two, according to per capita GDP, industrial structure, manufacturing structure. The urbanization rate and employment structure synthetically measure and divide the industrialization level and the process of the typical regions in the east, west and west of China. Based on such a theoretical premise and regional division. In the empirical research, this paper uses the time series data of China's typical regions from 2000 to 2015, selects the vector autoregressive model (VARA), and uses the impulse response analysis method to analyze the east and the middle of China. Typical areas in the west (eastern coastal areas, middle reaches of the Yangtze River). The results show that there are regional differences between industrialization development and transportation development, mainly in the areas with low industrialization level. The interaction between industrialization and transportation is mainly reflected in the interaction between the secondary industry and the total amount of transportation. Industrialization level developed to a certain stage, the effect of industrialization on transportation began to expand from the total amount of transport to the promotion of transport quality, and the development of transport began to produce positive effects on industrialization in the quality dimension. Industrialization developed to a higher stage, industrialization and transport in the total level of interaction began to weaken, industrialization and transport in the quality level of the interaction began to highlight. And in the interaction between the tertiary industry began to play a more important role. The main conclusions of this paper include three aspects: 1) A region with different levels and stages of industrialization. The interaction between industrialization and transportation is different. 2) there are obvious differences between industrialization and transportation development level in different economic zones in China; 3) the relationship between industrialization and transportation in the east of China with high industrialization level has a tendency from the total quantity level to the quality level, and the tertiary industry plays a more and more important role in the interactive process. In the underdeveloped areas (such as the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the northwest of the Yangtze River), the main task is to improve the economic level and develop the secondary industry, and there is a significant interaction between the industrialization and the total amount of transportation. In particular, the central region, to undertake the eastern region of industrial transfer, there is a great potential for development, industrialization and transport between the most significant interaction at all levels. Finally. According to the conclusions of the study, the article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F424;F512

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本文編號(hào)：1470313