本文關(guān)鍵詞：現(xiàn)代西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中預(yù)期理論的發(fā)展　出處：《河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 預(yù)期 預(yù)期理論 心理預(yù)期理論 理性預(yù)期理論 適應(yīng)性預(yù)期理論

【摘要】：預(yù)期在現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)生活中的運(yùn)用到處可見(jiàn),人們運(yùn)用預(yù)期的范圍越來(lái)越廣泛,運(yùn)用的深度也在不斷拓展。在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域中,預(yù)期占有地位的也顯得愈發(fā)的重要,現(xiàn)代西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的各學(xué)派都包含了預(yù)期理論,并運(yùn)用預(yù)期理論來(lái)解釋和解決存在的經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題。 本文分成七部分對(duì)現(xiàn)代西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的預(yù)期理論進(jìn)行闡述,第一部分緒論簡(jiǎn)要概括了本文寫(xiě)作的背景、目的、研究現(xiàn)狀和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。第二部分主要是瑞典學(xué)派的預(yù)期理論,瑞典學(xué)派預(yù)期理論的代表性人物是維克賽爾和繆爾達(dá)爾,他們的代表理論則是累積過(guò)程論和事前事后的分析方法。瑞典學(xué)派的預(yù)期理論還在一定程度上影響了凱恩斯和貨幣學(xué)派關(guān)于預(yù)期的理論。第三部分是馬歇爾的預(yù)期思想,馬歇爾的預(yù)期思想涵蓋在他的需求理論、供給理論和均衡價(jià)格理論中,馬歇爾主要是從心理因素方面來(lái)闡述預(yù)期理論。第四部分是凱恩斯的預(yù)期理論,凱恩斯主要是從有效需求和三大心理規(guī)律來(lái)闡述預(yù)期理論,凱恩斯的預(yù)期理論也是心理預(yù)期理論,這與馬歇爾的預(yù)期理論相同,但他們的政策主張卻是截然相反的。第五部分是貨幣學(xué)派的預(yù)期理論,代表人物是弗里德曼,從永久性收入、貨幣需求理論和附加預(yù)期的菲利普斯曲線來(lái)闡述適應(yīng)性預(yù)期理論,這比凱恩斯的外推行預(yù)期理論向前走了一步。第六部分是理性預(yù)期學(xué)派的預(yù)期思想,闡述了理性預(yù)期學(xué)派的基本假說(shuō)與理性預(yù)期的應(yīng)用,理性預(yù)期學(xué)派是吸收貨幣主義學(xué)派的思想而形成的,但他比貨幣學(xué)派堅(jiān)持更徹底的經(jīng)濟(jì)自由主義,認(rèn)為人們可以形成精確的預(yù)期,即達(dá)到避免利益損失的目的。第七部分是新凱恩斯主義的預(yù)期理論,主要從長(zhǎng)期價(jià)格合同論、交錯(cuò)調(diào)整價(jià)格論、交錯(cuò)調(diào)整工資論和長(zhǎng)期勞動(dòng)合同論來(lái)論述預(yù)期理論,新凱恩斯主義從理性預(yù)期學(xué)派借來(lái)了理性預(yù)期的概念而發(fā)展成了理性限制性預(yù)期,與理性預(yù)期學(xué)派的理性預(yù)期相比,更與實(shí)際相符合,是預(yù)期理論的又一進(jìn)步。 文章只論述了現(xiàn)代西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的預(yù)期理論,但這并不意味著預(yù)期理論的發(fā)展就此停滯不前了。理論將隨著實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)生活的不斷變化發(fā)展而隨之變化發(fā)展,預(yù)期理論的發(fā)展亦是如此。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,預(yù)期理論也將朝著更新的、與實(shí)際更相符合的階段發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The application of expectation in real economic life can be seen everywhere. The scope of people's application of expectation is more and more extensive, and the depth of application is also expanding. In the field of economics, it is more and more important to expect to occupy a position. Every school in modern western economics contains the theory of expectation and uses it to explain and solve the existing economic problems. This paper is divided into seven parts to elaborate the theory of expectation in modern western economics. The first part is a brief summary of the background and purpose of this paper. The second part is the expectation theory of the Swedish school. The representative figures of the expectation theory of the Swedish school are Wessel and Murdal. Their representative theory is cumulative process theory and ex post analysis method. The expectation theory of Swedish school also influences the theory of expectation of Keynesian and monetary school to some extent. The third part is Marshall's foreword. Period thought. Marshall's expectation theory is covered in his demand theory, supply theory and equilibrium price theory. Marshall mainly expounds expectation theory from psychological aspect. 4th part is Keynes's expectation theory. Keynes mainly from effective demand and three psychological laws to explain the expected theory, Keynes expected theory is also psychological expectation theory, which is the same as Marshall's expectation theory. But their policy proposition is quite the opposite. 5th is part of the monetary school's theory of expectations, represented by Friedman, from permanent income. The theory of monetary demand and the Phillips curve with expectations are used to explain the theory of adaptive expectation, which is a step forward from Keynes' theory of external expectation. 6th is the expectation thought of the school of rational expectation. This paper expounds the basic hypothesis of the school of rational expectation and the application of the school of rational expectation. The school of rational expectation is formed by absorbing the thought of monetarist school, but it adheres to more thorough economic liberalism than the school of money. The 7th part is a new Keynesian expectation theory, mainly from the long-term price contract theory, staggered adjustment price theory. Staggered adjustment of wage theory and long-term labor contract theory to discuss the theory of expectations, the new Keynesianism borrowed from the school of rational expectations of the concept of rational expectations and developed into rational restrictive expectations. Compared with rational expectation of rational expectation school, it is more consistent with reality and is another progress of expectation theory. This paper only discusses the theory of expectation in modern western economics, but this does not mean that the development of the theory of expectation has stagnated. The theory will change and develop with the development of real economic life. With the rapid development of the economy, the expected theory will also move towards a new stage, more in line with the actual situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：F091.3

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