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城投債券風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和防范研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-06-05 03:43

  本文選題:地方融資平臺(tái) + 城投債; 參考:《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文


【摘要】:為應(yīng)對(duì)國際金融危機(jī),2008年,中國政府出臺(tái)了4萬億經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃,并采取積極的財(cái)政政策和寬松的貨幣政策,地方政府融資平臺(tái)迅速擴(kuò)張,導(dǎo)致城投債規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大。當(dāng)前,,我國城投債尚處在探索階段,龐大的債務(wù)背后隱藏著巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。一旦發(fā)生債務(wù)違約,我國的金融經(jīng)濟(jì)將面臨嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)。隨著償債高峰的到來,強(qiáng)化城投債的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范研究成為我國城投債發(fā)展的當(dāng)務(wù)之急。 本文以城投債券的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析及存在原因和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范措施為主要研究?jī)?nèi)容。首先對(duì)城投債券的有關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論進(jìn)行了論述,并與市政債券進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析;其次對(duì)城投企業(yè)債券的產(chǎn)生背景和發(fā)展歷程進(jìn)行了概述,并結(jié)合2007年至2013年城投債券的相關(guān)信息分析了我國城投債券的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀;接下來,文章論述了城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在的主要影響因素,包括宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)、房地產(chǎn)、地方政府財(cái)政情況和支持力度幾個(gè)方面;然后文章從定性方面對(duì)城投債的操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、發(fā)行制度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和法律風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了規(guī)范分析,從定量方面結(jié)合選取的我國具有代表性城投企業(yè)債券的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)城投債的市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,并得出結(jié)論;最后在借鑒西方發(fā)達(dá)國家市政債券風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合我國城投債的實(shí)際情況,提出了相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)防策略。 本文通過運(yùn)用定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合、規(guī)范分析與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法,得出城投債在融資方面存在一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),但風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可控的結(jié)論。相應(yīng)的監(jiān)管部門應(yīng)規(guī)范指導(dǎo),使城投債不斷完善發(fā)展,更好地服務(wù)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)改革建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:In response to the international financial crisis, in 2008, the Chinese government launched a $4 trillion economic stimulus package, and adopted active fiscal policy and loose monetary policy. The rapid expansion of local government financing platforms led to the continued expansion of city investment debt. At present, our country city investment debt is still in the exploration stage, the huge debt hides the huge risk behind. Once the debt defaults, China's financial economy will face a serious crisis. With the arrival of debt service peak, it is urgent to strengthen the risk prevention research of city investment debt. This paper mainly focuses on the risk analysis, existing reasons and risk prevention measures of city investment bonds. First of all, the paper discusses the basic theory of the city investment bond, and compares it with the municipal bond. Secondly, it summarizes the background and development of the enterprise bond. Combined with the relevant information of city investment bond from 2007 to 2013, this paper analyzes the development status of the city investment bond in China. Then, the paper discusses the main influencing factors of the city investment bond risk, including the macroeconomic situation, real estate, and so on. The financial situation and support strength of local governments are analyzed in several aspects. Then, the paper analyzes the operation risk, the issue system risk and the legal risk of the city investment debt qualitatively. From the quantitative aspect, this paper analyzes the market risk and credit risk of the city investment bond based on the relevant data of the representative city investment enterprise bond in China, and draws a conclusion. Finally, based on the risk prevention of municipal bonds in western developed countries and the actual situation of city bond investment in China, the paper puts forward the relevant risk prevention strategies. Through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis, this paper draws the conclusion that there are some risks in financing of city investment debt, but the risk is controllable. The corresponding supervision department should standardize the guidance, make the city investment debt continuously perfect and develop, better serve our country's economic reform and construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號(hào)】:F832.51

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