本文選題：發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體 + 政府債務(wù)��； 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：始于2008年的金融危機(jī)重創(chuàng)了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)，這場(chǎng)危機(jī)使經(jīng)濟(jì)前景變得撲朔迷離，也嚴(yán)重?fù)p傷了發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的公共財(cái)政狀況，金融危機(jī)之后發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體在債務(wù)的泥潭中越陷越深，美國(guó)面臨著不可持續(xù)的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)以及持續(xù)的政治癱瘓，歐洲一直承受著主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)和各國(guó)政治不合的重壓；歐美財(cái)政整頓的失利正將世界拖入一個(gè)延續(xù)多年的低增長(zhǎng)期，政府債務(wù)問(wèn)題日益成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不能承受之重。如今在主權(quán)債務(wù)的風(fēng)暴中，歐美發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體正艱難地尋找著債務(wù)問(wèn)題的解藥，在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)削減債務(wù)仍將是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體政策討論的優(yōu)先議題。但對(duì)于如何尋找政府債務(wù)的長(zhǎng)期可持續(xù)之路，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體至今仍然缺乏清晰的思路。在這一背景之下，本文主要關(guān)心的問(wèn)題如下：發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的政府債務(wù)如何演變至今？政府債務(wù)積累會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生何種影響？對(duì)于在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家實(shí)現(xiàn)成功的債務(wù)削減，歷史提供了哪些經(jīng)驗(yàn)與啟示？危機(jī)后各國(guó)普遍出現(xiàn)的“金融抑制”政策能否有效化解當(dāng)前的債務(wù)僵局？長(zhǎng)期視角下如何抑制政府債務(wù)傾向？ 本文首先在第二章回顧了發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家政府債務(wù)誕生的歷史，對(duì)比分析了不同時(shí)期政府債務(wù)的差異，同時(shí)也介紹了政府債務(wù)相關(guān)研究的若干理論基礎(chǔ)。接著第三章中以1980-2009年期間61個(gè)國(guó)家（其中包括25個(gè)典型發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和36個(gè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家）組成的面板數(shù)據(jù)，采用系統(tǒng)GMM方法對(duì)政府債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的非線性關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，較好的克服了變量?jī)?nèi)生性問(wèn)題，結(jié)果顯示政府債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在著非線性(倒U型)關(guān)系，這種關(guān)系普遍存在于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家；證明了債務(wù)閾值的存在性，且兩組國(guó)家中政府債務(wù)閾值的大小存在顯著差異。但是，政府債務(wù)閾值并不具有唯一性和確定性，它隨利率、通貨膨脹、經(jīng)常賬戶和金融發(fā)展的變化而顯示出動(dòng)態(tài)性特征，同時(shí)上述變量對(duì)兩組國(guó)家的影響存在顯著的區(qū)別。 基于“政府債務(wù)的過(guò)度積累不利于長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)”這一基本判斷，本文第四章試圖在長(zhǎng)期歷史中總結(jié)政府債務(wù)削減的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。首先，定義何為成功的債務(wù)削減周期，在1880-2012年長(zhǎng)達(dá)百余年的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家政府債務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)中，按照定義篩選出195次成功的政府債務(wù)削減周期；其次，實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了通貨膨脹、名義利率、基礎(chǔ)預(yù)算平衡、長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)等變量在實(shí)現(xiàn)成功債務(wù)削減過(guò)程中所扮演的角色。結(jié)果顯示：當(dāng)基礎(chǔ)財(cái)政赤字的下降主要由緊縮支出所推動(dòng)時(shí)，能夠使得債務(wù)削減成功的概率大大增加，而通過(guò)增加財(cái)政收入的方式所進(jìn)行的財(cái)政鞏固政策對(duì)于遏制政府債務(wù)的膨脹并無(wú)太多幫助，甚至?xí)剐蝿?shì)進(jìn)一步惡化；長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率在政府債務(wù)削減過(guò)程中發(fā)揮著重要作用；利用通貨膨脹稀釋債務(wù)存量的方式似乎并不像人們所認(rèn)為的那么效果顯著；政府債務(wù)削減成功與否同樣對(duì)于名義利率的變動(dòng)極為敏感；出人意料的是沉重的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)往往成為債務(wù)削減的動(dòng)力之一。最后，基于不同時(shí)間段的考察發(fā)現(xiàn)，政府債務(wù)削減對(duì)于各個(gè)變量的敏感程度會(huì)發(fā)生變化。 第五章的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在當(dāng)前背景下，被人們所忽略的金融抑制因其在化解政府債務(wù)方面的獨(dú)特優(yōu)勢(shì)正在成為發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家應(yīng)對(duì)政府債務(wù)問(wèn)題的政策工具。二戰(zhàn)之后，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的政府債務(wù)規(guī)模達(dá)到歷史最高點(diǎn)，在解決債務(wù)問(wèn)題的過(guò)程中，金融抑制發(fā)揮了重要作用。然而結(jié)合第四章的實(shí)證結(jié)果，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)面對(duì)迥異的外部條件，如今金融抑制的效果已大打折扣，它并不能成為政府債務(wù)問(wèn)題的最終化解之道，同時(shí)也必將對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)新的挑戰(zhàn)，比如會(huì)使發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家貨幣政策面臨巨大壓力、社會(huì)福利損失、新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策面臨更多制約及全球金融行業(yè)與金融中心的多極化格局日漸顯現(xiàn)等。 本文第六章試圖尋找長(zhǎng)期視角下的政府債務(wù)化解之道，通過(guò)考察本文發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)前的政府債務(wù)周期起點(diǎn)可追溯至1970年代。早期發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家政府債務(wù)積累往往與戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)相聯(lián)系，，然而1970年代以來(lái)，在無(wú)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)與沖突的背景下發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家債務(wù)水平卻持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，成為歷史上的獨(dú)特現(xiàn)象。分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，新政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域中選民的“不完備知識(shí)”和政治進(jìn)程中的“策略性互動(dòng)”對(duì)此給出了有力的解釋，政府債務(wù)內(nèi)生性出現(xiàn)。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家試圖利用財(cái)政規(guī)則抑制政府債務(wù)的不斷膨脹，但本文的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)顯示財(cái)政規(guī)則實(shí)施的效果并不顯著，這一結(jié)果源于它不能消除債務(wù)的內(nèi)生性問(wèn)題。受到獨(dú)立央行的啟發(fā)，危機(jī)之后獨(dú)立的財(cái)政委員會(huì)開(kāi)始受到更多人的關(guān)注。分析表明理論上這一制度安排能夠成為內(nèi)生性政府債務(wù)的解，并通過(guò)考察歷史上成功的實(shí)踐，本文歸納出關(guān)于財(cái)政委員會(huì)的若干原則，希望為當(dāng)前正處于全球債務(wù)迷霧中的政策制定者帶來(lái)些許啟示。第七章對(duì)前文中的主要結(jié)論進(jìn)行總結(jié)，依據(jù)本文的研究對(duì)當(dāng)前發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家政府債務(wù)問(wèn)題及若干爭(zhēng)論進(jìn)行評(píng)述；同時(shí)對(duì)全文進(jìn)行反思，在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)未來(lái)的研究方向進(jìn)行展望。
[Abstract]:In 2008 the financial crisis hit the world economy, the crisis has made the economic outlook has also seriously damage the whirling, the public finances of the developed economies after the financial crisis, developed economies in debt quagmire deeper, the United States faces an unsustainable debt burden and sustained political paralysis in Europe has been under the sovereign debt crisis and political pressure in Europe not; fiscal consolidation is to defeat the world into a continuation of years of low growth, government debt has become the global economy unbearable. Now in the sovereign debt crisis, developed economies are struggling to find a debt problem in the antidote. The future will still be the priority issues of debt reduction policy in developed economies. But for the discussion of how to find the government debt to the long-term and sustainable way of development The economy is still a lack of clear ideas. In this context, the main concern of this paper are as follows: the government debt of developed countries has evolved to? Government debt accumulation will affect the economy? To achieve successful debt reduction in developed countries, which provides historical experience and Enlightenment of post crisis countries generally appear? The "financial repression" policy can effectively resolve the current debt impasse? How to reduce government debt tends to long-term perspective?
In the second chapter reviews the history of the birth of government debt in developed countries, analyzes the difference of government debt in different periods, and some related theories of government debt are also introduced. Then in Chapter third to 1980-2009 years in 61 countries (including 25 typical developed countries and 36 developing countries) panel data the system uses GMM method to the nonlinear relationship between government debt and economic growth by empirical analysis, solves the problem of endogenous variable, the results show that there exist nonlinear between government debt and economic growth (U) relationship, this relationship exists in developed and developing countries to prove the existence of the debt; the threshold, and there was significant difference between the two groups of countries in government debt threshold. However, the government debt threshold is not only determined and It shows dynamic characteristics with interest rate, inflation, current account and financial development. Meanwhile, the above variables have significant differences in the influence of the two countries.
Based on the "excessive accumulation of government debt is not conducive to long-term economic growth" as the basic judgment, the fourth chapter attempts to summarize the government debt reduction in the long historical experience. First, what is the definition of successful debt reduction period, government debt of developed country data in 1880-2012 years for hundreds of years, in accordance with the definition of selected 195 the success of government debt reduction period; secondly, the empirical test of the inflation, the nominal interest rate, the basic budget balance, long-term growth and other variables play in achieving successful debt reduction in the process of role. The results indicate that when the decline in basic fiscal deficit mainly by austerity driven, can make the probability of successful debt reduction greatly increased but, through fiscal consolidation policy to increase revenue for the way to curb the expansion of government debt is not too much help, and even make the situation. A further deterioration in debt reduction; the government plays an important role in the process of long-term economic growth rate; inflation by way of debt stock dilution doesn't seem like people think that the effect is significant; government debt reduction success as well as the nominal interest rate is extremely sensitive to changes is beyond all expectations; the heavy debt burden is one of the most dynamic debt reduction. Finally, we have found based on different periods of time, the government debt reduction for the sensitive degree of each variable will be changed.
The fifth chapter of the study found that, in the current context, financial repression policy instruments are ignored is becoming the developed countries to deal with the problem of government debt because of its unique advantages in resolving the government debt of developed countries. After World War II, the size of government debt reached the highest point in history, in the process of solving the debt problem in the play the important role of financial repression. However, according to the results of the fourth chapter, this paper found the face of different external conditions, financial repression effects now, it does not become the ultimate resolve the government debt problem of the road, but also will bring new challenges to the global economy, for example, will make monetary policy in developed countries are facing tremendous pressure, the loss of social welfare, emerging economies, macroeconomic policy is more restrictive and multi polarization pattern of the global financial industry and financial centers are becoming more apparent.
In the sixth chapter, from the perspective of trying to find a long-term solution to the debt of the government, through the study found that the current government debt cycle starting point can be traced back to 1970s. The early developed countries government debt accumulation often associated with war, however, since 1970s, in the absence of war and conflict under the background of developed countries, the level of debt continues to grow, become a unique the phenomenon of history. Analysis shows that the voters of new political economics in the field of "incomplete knowledge" and the political process in the "strategic interaction" which gives the powerful explanation, endogenous government debt. Long developed countries try to restrain government debt by the expansion of fiscal rules, but the empirical test shows the rules for the implementation of the effect is not significant, this result stems from its inability to eliminate the endogeneity problem of debt. Inspired by the independent central bank, After the crisis of independent Finance Committee began to receive more and more people's attention. The theory analysis shows that this system can become the endogeneity of government debt, and through the practice of reviewing the history of success, this paper sums up some principles on the finance committee, hoping to work for is currently in the global debt policy brings a little in the fog enlightenment. The seventh chapter summarizes the main conclusions of the above, according to the research of the current government debt of developed countries and some debates; also reflection of the full text, on the basis of the direction of future research prospects.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F811.5;F112.2

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