本文選題：創(chuàng)業(yè)板　切入點：高管增持　出處：《上海交通大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：與主板相比,創(chuàng)業(yè)板對應的主要是新興行業(yè)里面的中小企業(yè)，上市門檻比主板要低，經營風險高于主板。目前國內對于高管增持的研究較少，隨著法律法規(guī)放開對于高管增持的限制，對此類研究的價值將逐漸凸顯出來。 本文與現有研究的不同之處在于：首先本文研究的是中國大陸證券市場，屬于新興市場，跟西方研究的成熟市場來說有較多理論并無法契合。其次目前國內的高管增持研究多是考察在短期（1個月內甚至是公告后1天）內高管增持的信號對于股價的影響，本文認為由于相關法規(guī)要求6個月內不能反向交易，因此高管增持邏輯上代表了6個月以上的中長期行為；第三，高管一般對公司的經營運行情況比較了解，對二級市場了解或認識的不夠深入，他們通常無法準確把握公司短期波動。其增持往往體現了公司未來凈利潤的增長上。 本文提出了4個假設，經過對2009年到2013年創(chuàng)業(yè)板高管增持有代表性的樣本數據的實證研究，有些假設被證實，有些被證偽。 得到如下結論：創(chuàng)業(yè)板高管增持向市場傳遞了中長期利好信號，期望股價在公告后6個月有顯著絕對正收益，1年有顯著絕對正收益，但在短期（公告后1個月）并沒有顯著絕對正收益。值得注意的是，高管增持本身對股價并沒有一個明顯的刺激作用，而是高管由于是公司內部人員，其增持往往反映了多數情況下公司經營情況的好轉，，但同時也有增持后次年凈利潤增速放緩甚至下滑的情況發(fā)生，主要原因有公司規(guī)模已經較大、業(yè)績在第二年或第三年體現、強周期行業(yè)整體不景氣拖累公司等。從中長期（半年以上）來看，股價和公司業(yè)績成正相關。創(chuàng)業(yè)板高管增持往往映射了業(yè)績，而公司基本面的好轉之后再會反映到股價上去。 提出以下建議：1、可以構建一個創(chuàng)業(yè)板高管增持的絕對收益組合，并用于半年以上的中長期投資，相信大概率可以獲得絕對正收益。2、若要更好的提高創(chuàng)業(yè)板高管增持組合的絕對收益，由于中長期來看股價和公司業(yè)績成正相關，因此在篩選創(chuàng)業(yè)板高管增持公司時要認真研究公司所處行業(yè)基本面、公司競爭地位、公司未來的發(fā)展空間，從中挑選優(yōu)秀的公司。3、高管增持本身對股價并沒有一個明顯的刺激作用，僅代表看好公司今后的發(fā)展，還要結合其他各個要素才能挑出真正的牛股，比如說宏觀、行業(yè)基本面、公司基本面、資金成本、市場風格、甚至技術分析等。
[Abstract]:Compared with the mainboard , the GEM corresponds to the small and medium - sized enterprises in the emerging industry , the listing threshold is lower than that of the main board , and the operation risk is higher than that of the main board . At present , there is little research on the increase of the executive branch in China , and the value of such research will be gradually highlighted as the laws and regulations release the restrictions on the increase of the executive .

This paper is different from the existing research in that : Firstly , this paper deals with the Chinese mainland securities market , which belongs to the emerging market and is not fit for the mature market of western research .
Third , executives generally have a better understanding of the company ' s operating conditions , and they are often unable to accurately grasp the company ' s short - term fluctuations . They tend to reflect the growth of the company ' s future net profit .

In this paper , four hypotheses are put forward , and some assumptions have been substantiated , some of which have been proved to be false , through an empirical study of the sample data holding a representative sample data from 2009 to 2013 .

It is worth noting that the increase in stock price has no obvious stimulating effect on stock price in the first year but also in short - term ( 1 month after the announcement ) . It is important to note that the company ' s share price has not been significantly improved in the second year or the third year . However , it is mainly due to the fact that the company has a large scale , and its performance is positive in the second year or the third year .

This paper puts forward the following suggestions : 1 . It is possible to construct a combination of absolute returns for high - tube growth of GEM and to invest in medium - and long - term investment more than half a year . It is believed that the large probability can obtain absolute positive returns . In order to improve the absolute return of stock price and company performance in the long term , it is necessary to carefully study the company ' s stock price and the company ' s future development space . In order to select the excellent company from the medium and long term , it is only necessary to carefully study the company ' s future development , and to combine other elements to pick up the real bull stock , such as macro , industry fundamentals , company fundamentals , capital cost , market style , and even technical analysis .

【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F275

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相關期刊論文 前2條

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