本文選題：財務(wù)危機(jī)　切入點(diǎn)：預(yù)警　出處：《西北大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年隨著國內(nèi)改革的深化發(fā)展,使得國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的競爭在各個領(lǐng)域愈演愈烈。由于金融危機(jī)的出現(xiàn)加之企業(yè)管理不善,就使企業(yè)的經(jīng)營風(fēng)險也大大增加,加之上市公司信息具有公開化的特點(diǎn),問題也就日益體現(xiàn)。上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)警研究已成為學(xué)術(shù)界和實(shí)務(wù)界比較關(guān)注的重要課題。絕大多數(shù)企業(yè)出現(xiàn)危機(jī)都會有一個發(fā)展演變的過程,而不是一下就能使企業(yè)的財務(wù)狀況惡化。那么如何使企業(yè)做到高效的檢測和防范,將危機(jī)扼殺于萌芽之中,便不僅是企業(yè)關(guān)心的問題,也受到各個利益方以及政府監(jiān)管部門的關(guān)注。因此,深入了解企業(yè)財務(wù)狀況,建立財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型,這就使財務(wù)危機(jī)的預(yù)防顯得極為重要。 研究財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的使用方法也在逐漸多樣化,但是國內(nèi)外財務(wù)危機(jī)的預(yù)警研究,大多數(shù)都是從理論上描述和定義了財務(wù)危機(jī),也都將預(yù)警重點(diǎn)放在了已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)財務(wù)危機(jī)的企業(yè),而沒有把這種方法的研究對象擴(kuò)展到財務(wù)正常企業(yè),這樣就不能在企業(yè)尚未發(fā)生財務(wù)危機(jī)時對企業(yè)進(jìn)行全面有效的診斷,無法事前預(yù)測財務(wù)危機(jī)將要發(fā)生而只能在事后確認(rèn),最終使企業(yè)在發(fā)生財務(wù)危機(jī)時措手不及而導(dǎo)致企業(yè)破產(chǎn)。所以,事前做好預(yù)警,提前發(fā)現(xiàn),盡早防范以化解風(fēng)險,是每個企業(yè)化解財務(wù)問題的最佳方法。 本文基于A股上市公司為藍(lán)本,對A股上市公司有沒有被特別處理來判斷其是否陷入財務(wù)危機(jī),選取2009-2011年中首次被ST的35家企業(yè)及相應(yīng)的非ST配對35家企業(yè),構(gòu)成建模樣本。同時以2012年1月1日至2012年06月30日之間被ST的15家企業(yè)及其相應(yīng)的15家非ST配對企業(yè)組成檢驗(yàn)樣本組,用于驗(yàn)證預(yù)警模型的預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確度。本文采用了單變量分析法,Fisher判定模型及Logistic回歸分析法,從主要的財務(wù)指標(biāo)對其進(jìn)行一系列研究,包括了盈利能力,償債能力,現(xiàn)金流等,借助SPSS統(tǒng)計軟件,運(yùn)用正態(tài)性檢驗(yàn)及顯著性檢驗(yàn)尋找適合模型的指標(biāo)和能使企業(yè)陷入財務(wù)困境的指標(biāo),來建立模型。模型建立的結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),企業(yè)距離被ST的時間越近,預(yù)警模型的判別準(zhǔn)確率越高,尤其是被ST的前一年,預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確率最高。模型的構(gòu)建使企業(yè)的財務(wù)惡化得到了較好的預(yù)警,取得了一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:With the deepening development of domestic reform in recent years, domestic economic competition has intensified in various fields. Due to the emergence of the financial crisis and the mismanagement of enterprises, the business risks of enterprises have also increased greatly. In addition, the information of listed companies is open to the public. The research on financial early warning of listed companies has become an important topic of concern in the academic and practical circles. Most enterprises will have a process of development and evolution when they appear in crisis. Instead of making the financial situation of an enterprise worse at once, it is not only a matter of concern to the enterprise how to make the enterprise achieve efficient detection and prevention, and how to nip the crisis in the bud. Therefore, it is very important to deeply understand the financial situation of enterprises and establish a financial crisis warning model, which makes the prevention of financial crisis extremely important. The use of financial crisis warning model is gradually diversified, but most of the financial crisis early warning research at home and abroad describe and define financial crisis theoretically. They also focus on the enterprises that have already had financial crisis, but do not extend the research object of this method to the normal financial enterprises, so that they cannot make a comprehensive and effective diagnosis of the enterprises when the financial crisis has not yet occurred. It is impossible to predict the occurrence of a financial crisis in advance but can only be confirmed after the event, which ultimately causes an enterprise to be caught off guard when a financial crisis occurs and lead to enterprise bankruptcy. Therefore, make a good warning beforehand, find out in advance, and take precautions as soon as possible to resolve the risk. It is the best way for every enterprise to solve financial problems. Based on the A-share listed companies as the blueprint, whether the A-share listed companies have been specially treated to judge whether they are in financial crisis or not, select 35 companies and corresponding non-St matched 35 enterprises in the first time in 2009-2011. Constitute modeling samples. From January 1, 2012 to June 30, 2012, 15 enterprises with St and their corresponding 15 non-ST-matched enterprises were used to test the sample group. In this paper, univariate analysis method and Logistic regression analysis are used to study the prediction accuracy of early warning model, including profitability, solvency, cash flow and so on. With the help of SPSS statistical software, using normal test and significance test to find the suitable index and the index that can make the enterprise get into financial distress, the model is established. The result shows that the time between the enterprise and St is closer. The higher the discriminant accuracy of the early warning model is, especially the year before St, the prediction accuracy is the highest. The construction of the model makes the financial deterioration of enterprises get better early warning, and obtains certain practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F276.6;F275;F832.51

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