本文關(guān)鍵詞： 地方債置換 財(cái)政規(guī)則 財(cái)政延遲 動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡　出處：《財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文在動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡的框架下,從利率的負(fù)向沖擊和財(cái)政規(guī)則變化兩個(gè)方面分析了地方政府存量債務(wù)置換對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),第一,在利率負(fù)向沖擊的作用下,產(chǎn)出會(huì)出現(xiàn)短期的增長(zhǎng),但隨后會(huì)出現(xiàn)一段時(shí)期的微量衰退,且政府債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)也會(huì)增加;第二,地方債務(wù)置換改變了地方政府的財(cái)政規(guī)則,使財(cái)政規(guī)則對(duì)負(fù)債的反應(yīng)出現(xiàn)一定延遲,從而造成財(cái)政支出擴(kuò)張政策效果的變化。經(jīng)過(guò)模擬可以看出,財(cái)政規(guī)則對(duì)負(fù)債反應(yīng)的延遲會(huì)降低財(cái)政擴(kuò)張政策在期初的刺激效果,同時(shí)加劇經(jīng)濟(jì)的周期性波動(dòng)。周期性波動(dòng)的增強(qiáng)一方面使財(cái)政擴(kuò)張對(duì)產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)刺激的持續(xù)性增強(qiáng);另一方面也使負(fù)債率的波動(dòng)性增強(qiáng),導(dǎo)致債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上升。根據(jù)研究結(jié)論,我們認(rèn)為在債務(wù)置換期間,政府實(shí)行積極財(cái)政政策時(shí)應(yīng)謹(jǐn)慎提防經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng),同時(shí)探索財(cái)政規(guī)則的最優(yōu)延遲期限。
[Abstract]:Under the frame of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, this paper analyzes the impact of local government stock debt replacement on the macroeconomic from two aspects: the negative impact of interest rate and the change of fiscal rules. Under the negative impact of interest rates, output will increase in the short term, but then there will be a slight recession, and the government debt burden will increase. Second, the local debt swap has changed the fiscal rules of the local government. The response of fiscal rules to liabilities is delayed, which results in the change of the effect of fiscal expenditure expansion policy. Through the simulation, it can be seen that the delay of fiscal rules to debt response will reduce the stimulus effect of fiscal expansion policy at the beginning of the period. At the same time, it increases the cyclical fluctuation of the economy. On the one hand, the increase of the cyclical fluctuation increases the sustainability of fiscal expansion to stimulate output growth; on the other hand, it also increases the volatility of the debt ratio, which leads to an increase in debt risk. According to the conclusion of the study, We believe that during the period of debt replacement, the government should be careful to guard against economic fluctuations while implementing active fiscal policy, and explore the optimal delay period of fiscal rules at the same time.
【作者單位】： 天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院財(cái)政系;
【基金】：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)改革研究基金會(huì)項(xiàng)目“新型城鎮(zhèn)化與地方政府土地財(cái)政轉(zhuǎn)型研究”(201506) 天津市哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目“京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展背景下天津市地方政府收入可持續(xù)性研究”(TJYY15-016) 天津市“地方公共財(cái)政研究”科研創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)資助
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

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