【摘要】：針對(duì)2008年全球金融危機(jī)之后美日歐等發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體長(zhǎng)期復(fù)蘇乏力的態(tài)勢(shì),美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家薩默斯提出了長(zhǎng)期停滯理論。該理論認(rèn)為,由于發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的均衡實(shí)際利率將長(zhǎng)期為負(fù),貨幣政策受到"零下限"約束難以將現(xiàn)實(shí)中的實(shí)際利率壓低至均衡實(shí)際利率的水平,由此導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)體長(zhǎng)期復(fù)蘇乏力,而應(yīng)對(duì)長(zhǎng)期停滯的有效方法是實(shí)施積極財(cái)政政策以擴(kuò)大總需求。長(zhǎng)期停滯理論提出之后,許多知名學(xué)者表示認(rèn)同,但是也有部分學(xué)者對(duì)該理論的核心機(jī)理和政策主張?zhí)岢隽速|(zhì)疑。事實(shí)上,長(zhǎng)期停滯理論即使成立,也不適用于中國(guó)。究其原因,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展新常態(tài)以來中國(guó)均衡實(shí)際利率穩(wěn)定在3%左右,明顯高于美日歐等發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體。而且,中國(guó)政策利率水平仍然相對(duì)較高,通脹率和通脹預(yù)期也處于較高水平,因此可以通過降低政策利率或者提高通脹率,將實(shí)際利率降到均衡實(shí)際利率的水平。由此可見,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)并未陷入長(zhǎng)期停滯。
[Abstract]:In response to the sluggish recovery in developed economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe after the 2008 global financial crisis, U.S. economist James Summers put forward the theory of secular stagnation. The theory holds that because the equilibrium real interest rate in the developed economies will be negative for a long time, monetary policy is constrained by the "zero floor" and it is difficult to reduce the real interest rate in reality to the level of the equilibrium real interest rate, which leads to a long period of sluggish recovery in the economy. And the effective way to deal with long-term stagnation is to implement active fiscal policies to expand aggregate demand. After the theory of secular stagnation was put forward, many famous scholars agreed, but some scholars questioned the core mechanism and policy proposition of the theory. In fact, the theory of long-term stagnation, if established, does not apply to China. The reason is that since the new normal of economic development, the equilibrium real interest rate of China has stabilized at about 3 percent, which is obviously higher than that of developed economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe. Moreover, China's policy interest rates are still relatively high and inflation expectations are high, so real interest rates can be reduced to equilibrium real interest rates by lowering policy rates or raising inflation rates. This shows that the Chinese economy has not fallen into a long-term stagnation.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;中國(guó)人民大學(xué)漢青經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融高級(jí)研究院;
【基金】：中國(guó)人民大學(xué)科學(xué)研究基金(中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金資助)項(xiàng)目“利率市場(chǎng)化背景下中國(guó)貨幣政策框架的轉(zhuǎn)型研究”(15XNI006)階段性成果
【分類號(hào)】：F091.3;F124

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 彭志遠(yuǎn);經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和實(shí)際利率的關(guān)系分析[J];北京科技大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2002年03期

2 王文平;;實(shí)際利率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng):發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家的差異性分析及其模型解釋[J];山東經(jīng)濟(jì);2008年02期

，

本文編號(hào)：2193277