本文選題：投機消費 + 價格預期��； 參考：《華中科技大學》2008年博士論文

【摘要】： 投機消費即消費者為了獲得額外收益而產(chǎn)生的消費,是現(xiàn)實生活中普遍存在的一種消費方式。它對消費者個人的選擇、企業(yè)的經(jīng)營活動以及國家的宏觀經(jīng)濟運行都有重大影響。但是這種消費方式,不僅被理論經(jīng)濟學、應用經(jīng)濟學的研究忽視,而且也被政府的決策部門忽視。本文在吸收前人研究成果的基礎上,描述并研究了這一消費方式,提出其概念,分析其特點,剖析其動因,劃分其類型。以典型的投機消費的分析為框架,研究了投機消費作用于經(jīng)濟活動的機理,探索了投機消費對經(jīng)濟的影響,提出了引導投機消費、穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟增長的政策建議。本文的基本觀點有: 投機消費是現(xiàn)實生活中普遍存在的一種消費方式。研究投機消費能為宏觀經(jīng)濟理論尋找微觀基礎,為宏、微觀經(jīng)濟決策提供理論依據(jù),這對于消費者的選擇、企業(yè)的經(jīng)營活動、國家的宏觀經(jīng)濟運行,都具有非常重要的意義。 消費理論的發(fā)展從不同的角度可以分為不同的發(fā)展階段。從研究投機消費的角度,大體可以將消費理論的發(fā)展分為四個發(fā)展時期,并相應地產(chǎn)生了樸素的消費思想、節(jié)儉積累消費理論、選擇性消費理論、不確定性消費理論。 投機消費是消費者為獲得額外收益而進行的消費。這種消費是依附于正常消費、以取得額外收益為目的的,盡管它會給消費者帶來收益,但它與投資不同。投機消費是具有收益產(chǎn)出能力的消費,安排這種消費要考慮消費成本與收益的比較、時間上的提前或延遲、空間上的轉移、商品選擇上的轉換。投機消費需求彈性較大,具有較強的不確定性和風險性。投機消費產(chǎn)生于人們規(guī)避損失,追逐利益的內(nèi)在沖動,同時也是人們避免遺憾,實現(xiàn)自我價值的一種方式。消費者可以權衡消費選擇,進行投機消費,以獲得最大的收益。投機消費是可以開發(fā)利用的消費,如果制度設置合理,這種消費就能很好地為社會發(fā)展服務。根據(jù)不同的劃分標準,投機消費可分為當期投機消費和跨期投機消費;同質(zhì)產(chǎn)品的投機消費和差別產(chǎn)品的投機消費;同區(qū)域的投機消費和跨區(qū)域的投機消費;基于技術進步的投機消費和技術不變的投機消費;基于價格預期的投機消費和價格不變的投機消費,等等。 基于價格預期的投機消費是由預期價格變化產(chǎn)生的、消費者重新選擇商品或服務以獲得最大收益的消費。價格變化會改變消費者的預算約束,從而改變消費者獲得的效用,導致投機消費。投機消費受消費的主體因素、客體因素、宏觀因素和不確定因素等因素的影響。投機消費作為消費行為的一種方式,最終可歸結為在一定的收入預算條件下如何實現(xiàn)消費者效用最大化的問題。投機消費的收益是不確定的。在不確定性條件下,消費者的選擇更為復雜。 消費者在購買網(wǎng)絡產(chǎn)品從而加入某個經(jīng)濟網(wǎng)絡時,往往并不能準確評估網(wǎng)絡產(chǎn)品所具有的網(wǎng)絡效應及其帶來的效用水平,從而使其消費行為顯示出投機特性。消費者購買網(wǎng)絡產(chǎn)品的消費行為面臨三個方面的不確定性,產(chǎn)生這些不確定性的原因包括消費者對網(wǎng)絡規(guī)模估計的有限理性,消費者對網(wǎng)絡成長路徑的有限理性以及消費者“首嘗”消費所面臨的有限理性。網(wǎng)絡消費者由于對網(wǎng)絡規(guī)模的有限理性將導致其在消費選擇過程中既可能面對額外的正效用,也可能收到意外的負效用,并且這些效用通常具有不同的性質(zhì),有的可以給消費者帶來實質(zhì)的傷害,有些則只會導致心理層面的失望情緒。消費者對網(wǎng)絡效用函數(shù)和網(wǎng)絡成長過程的有限理性,同樣會給網(wǎng)絡消費者帶來投機消費的體驗,只是各種體驗的前提和條件有所不同。 投機消費會對國民經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生重要的影響。一般說來,正常消費相對穩(wěn)定,消費波動在很大程度上來自投機消費。消費政策的任務就是引導消費,充分發(fā)揮投機消費對經(jīng)濟的有利作用,避免其對宏觀經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生不良的影響。
[Abstract]:The consumption of speculating consumption, which is produced by consumers in order to gain extra income, is a common mode of consumption in real life. It has a significant impact on the choice of individual consumers, business activities and the macro-economic operation of the country. However, this mode of consumption is not only studied by theoretical economics and applied economics. On the basis of the achievements of the predecessors, this paper describes and studies the consumption mode, puts forward its concept, analyzes its characteristics, analyzes its motivation and divides its types, and studies the mechanism of speculative consumption on economic activities with the analysis of typical speculative consumption as a framework. The impact of speculative consumption on the economy puts forward policy proposals to guide speculative consumption and stabilize economic growth.
Speculative consumption is a common mode of consumption in real life. It is of great significance to study speculative consumption for macro economic theory and to provide a theoretical basis for macro and micro economic decision-making. It is of great significance for the choice of consumers, business activities and national macro-economic transportation.
The development of consumption theory can be divided into different stages of development from different angles. From the perspective of speculative consumption, the development of consumption theory can be divided into four periods of development, and the consumption theory of simple consumption, the theory of frugality accumulation and consumption, the theory of selective expense elimination and the theory of uncertainty consumption are put forward accordingly.
Speculative consumption is a consumer's consumption in order to gain extra income. This consumption is dependent on normal consumption to gain extra income, although it will bring benefits to consumers, but it is different from investment. Speculative consumption is a consumption of income output. Compared with the advance or delay in time, the transfer of space, the conversion of commodity selection, the flexibility of the speculative consumption demand is larger, and it has strong uncertainty and risk. Speculative consumption is produced by people's inner impulse to avoid losses and pursue interests. At the same time, it is also a way for people to avoid regrets and realize self value. With the choice of consumption and speculative consumption to gain the greatest benefit. Speculative consumption is a consumption that can be exploited and utilized. If the system is set reasonably, this consumption can serve social development well. According to different criteria, speculative consumption can be divided into speculative consumption in the current period and inter temporal speculation consumption; speculative consumption and poor quality of homogeneity products Speculative consumption of other products; speculative consumption in the same region and speculative consumption across regions; speculative consumption based on speculative consumption and technology based on technological progress; speculative consumption based on speculative consumption and price Invariance Based on price expectations, and so on.
Speculation consumption based on price expectation is produced by the change of expected price, and the consumer is re choosing goods or services to obtain the maximum income. The price change will change the consumer's budget constraints, thus change the utility of the consumer and lead to speculative consumption. The main factors, object factors and macro factors of speculative consumption are subject to consumption. As a way of consumption behavior, speculative consumption can ultimately be attributed to the problem of how to maximize the utility of consumers under certain income budget conditions. The income of speculative consumption is uncertain. Under the condition of uncertainty, the choice of consumers is more complex.
When consumers buy a network product to join a certain economic network, they often do not accurately assess the network effect and the utility level of the network products, so that the consumer behavior shows speculative characteristics. The consumer behavior of consumer buying network products is faced with three aspects of uncertainty, producing these uncertainties. The reasons include the limited rationality of the consumer's estimation of the network size, the limited rationality of the consumer on the network growth path and the limited rationality of the consumer's "first taste" consumption. The network consumers may face additional positive utility in the process of consumption selection because of the limited rationality of the network size, and may also be possible. Unintended negative effects are received, and these utilities usually have different properties, some can cause substantial harm to consumers, some only lead to psychological disappointment. Consumers' limited rationality to the network utility function and the network growth process will also bring the experience of speculative consumption to the Internet consumers, just each of them. The preconditions and conditions of the experience are different.
Speculative consumption will have an important impact on the national economy. Generally speaking, normal consumption is relatively stable, and consumption fluctuations are largely derived from speculative consumption. The task of consumption policy is to guide consumption, give full play to the beneficial effect of speculative consumption on the economy, and avoid its adverse effects on the macro-economy.

【學位授予單位】：華中科技大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2008
【分類號】：F224;F061.5

【引證文獻】

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 董加云;基于茶油價值認知的消費者對茶油購買行為研究[D];福建農(nóng)林大學;2011年

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本文編號：1885042