東北寒地區(qū)域碳排放現(xiàn)狀評價及影響因素研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-14 07:59
【摘要】：隨著社會經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展、人民生活的逐步提高，能源消耗也與日俱增，作為能源消耗的直接產(chǎn)物，二氧化碳排放水平也急劇升高，由此引發(fā)的溫室效應(yīng)通過各種方式影響著人們的生活。全球氣候變暖，海平面上升，生物多樣性的減少，臭氧層空洞，極端天氣等詞匯也越來越多的出現(xiàn)在視野中。各種自然災(zāi)害使世界意識到經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程有必要對碳排放量進行控制，作為發(fā)展中國家的中國在當(dāng)前世界范圍內(nèi)碳減排任務(wù)前，面臨巨大壓力。黑龍江省、吉林省、遼寧省作為典型的東北寒地區(qū)域，也是我國工業(yè)發(fā)展的搖籃，為建國初期經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展貢獻了特別重要的力量，但現(xiàn)階段技術(shù)條件下，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)仍然以工業(yè)為主，技術(shù)比較落后，能源效率不高，這對于我國減排任務(wù)的完成是十分不利的。因此有必要對區(qū)域碳排放現(xiàn)狀進行評價、并對其影響因素進行明確。 本文以碳足跡方法和TaPio脫鉤方法為基礎(chǔ)，從總量與生產(chǎn)率兩個角度對東北寒地區(qū)域碳排放現(xiàn)狀從進行分析，總量分析結(jié)果表明東北寒地區(qū)域碳足跡逐漸增加，且未來由增加趨勢，通過對碳足跡密度、碳足跡生態(tài)壓力、碳足跡產(chǎn)值、碳足跡強度等指標(biāo)當(dāng)前碳排放現(xiàn)狀對生態(tài)環(huán)境的影響進行評價，結(jié)果顯示CFD指數(shù)均大于3，EPICF指數(shù)均大于1，表明環(huán)境壓力較大，且未來有增長趨勢，而VCF指數(shù)增長緩慢，CFI指數(shù)下降緩慢，表明技術(shù)對碳排放的影響不高，，單位能耗下降緩慢。從生產(chǎn)率結(jié)果表明，當(dāng)前東北寒地區(qū)域碳利用水平不高，處于弱正效率階段，從總體水平來講遼寧省碳生產(chǎn)率最高，吉林省次之，黑龍江省碳生產(chǎn)率水平最低，但吉林省碳生產(chǎn)率有下降趨勢。通過LMDI因素分解模型對碳排放進行因素分解分析，結(jié)果表明經(jīng)濟增長效應(yīng)和人口規(guī)模效應(yīng)為區(qū)域碳排放主要拉動因素，能源強度效應(yīng)對區(qū)域碳排放主要抑制因素，而產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)與能源結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)在黑龍江省、吉林省、遼寧省的貢獻方向不一致。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)在黑龍江省對碳排放起到抑制作用，在吉林省和遼寧省表現(xiàn)為拉動作用，能源結(jié)構(gòu)因素對黑龍江省碳排放起到拉動作用，在吉林省和遼寧省表現(xiàn)為抑制作用。依據(jù)各省現(xiàn)狀對分解分析的結(jié)果進行解釋，明確產(chǎn)生差異的原因。 通過東北寒地區(qū)域碳排放現(xiàn)狀進行評價，通過分解分析方法并結(jié)合黑龍江省、吉林省、遼寧省實際情況對形成當(dāng)前現(xiàn)狀的影響因素予以明確，基于以上分析本文從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化、低碳技術(shù)應(yīng)用、加強生態(tài)保護、以及統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展規(guī)劃，借鑒發(fā)展經(jīng)驗等方面出發(fā)為東北寒地區(qū)域“十二五”期間的節(jié)能減排任務(wù)順利完成提供科學(xué)合理的支持。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy and the gradual improvement of people's life, energy consumption is also increasing day by day. As a direct product of energy consumption, the level of carbon dioxide emissions is also rising sharply. The resulting Greenhouse Effect influences people's lives in various ways. Global warming, sea level rise, biodiversity loss, ozone hole, extreme weather and other words are more and more in the field of view. All kinds of natural disasters make the world realize that it is necessary to control the carbon emissions in the process of economic development. As a developing country, China is faced with great pressure before the current task of reducing carbon emissions worldwide. Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Liaoning Province, as typical northeast cold regions, are also the cradle of China's industrial development, and have contributed a particularly important force to the economic and social development in the early years of the founding of the people's Republic of China, but under the present technological conditions, The industrial structure is still dominated by industry, the technology is relatively backward and the energy efficiency is not high, which is very disadvantageous to the completion of the task of emission reduction in our country. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the current situation of regional carbon emissions and to clarify the influencing factors. Based on the carbon footprint method and TaPio decoupling method, this paper analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions in the northeast cold region from the perspectives of total amount and productivity. The total amount of analysis shows that the carbon footprint of northeast cold region increases gradually. And from the increasing trend in the future, through the carbon footprint density, carbon footprint ecological pressure, carbon footprint output value, carbon footprint intensity and other indicators of the current carbon footprint impact on the ecological environment. The results showed that the CFD indices were all greater than 3 EPICF indices, which indicated that the environmental pressure was high and the future growth trend was higher, while the slow growth of VCF index showed that the CFI index decreased slowly, which indicated that the impact of technology on carbon emissions was not high, and the decrease of unit energy consumption was slow. The results of productivity show that the level of carbon utilization in northeast cold region is not high and is in the stage of weak positive efficiency. In terms of overall level, the carbon productivity of Liaoning Province is the highest, that of Jilin Province is the second, and that of Heilongjiang Province is the lowest. But Jilin Province carbon productivity has a downward trend. The factor decomposition analysis of carbon emissions by LMDI factor decomposition model shows that the economic growth effect and population scale effect are the main driving factors of regional carbon emissions, and the energy intensity effect is the main restraining factor of regional carbon emissions. The contribution direction of industrial structure effect and energy structure effect in Heilongjiang province, Jilin province and Liaoning province is different. The effects of industrial structure on carbon emissions were inhibited in Heilongjiang province, pulled in Jilin province and Liaoning province, pulled by energy structure factors, and inhibited in Jilin province and Liaoning province. The results of decomposition analysis are explained according to the current situation of each province, and the reasons for the differences are clarified. Through the evaluation of the status quo of carbon emissions in the northeast cold region, the factors influencing the formation of the present situation are made clear by the decomposition analysis method and the actual situation in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces. Based on the above analysis, this paper focuses on the adjustment of industrial structure, optimization of energy structure, application of low-carbon technology, enhancement of ecological protection, and overall planning for development. It provides scientific and reasonable support for the successful completion of the task of energy saving and emission reduction in the Northeast Cold region during the 12th Five-Year Plan.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F205
本文編號：2120994
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy and the gradual improvement of people's life, energy consumption is also increasing day by day. As a direct product of energy consumption, the level of carbon dioxide emissions is also rising sharply. The resulting Greenhouse Effect influences people's lives in various ways. Global warming, sea level rise, biodiversity loss, ozone hole, extreme weather and other words are more and more in the field of view. All kinds of natural disasters make the world realize that it is necessary to control the carbon emissions in the process of economic development. As a developing country, China is faced with great pressure before the current task of reducing carbon emissions worldwide. Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Liaoning Province, as typical northeast cold regions, are also the cradle of China's industrial development, and have contributed a particularly important force to the economic and social development in the early years of the founding of the people's Republic of China, but under the present technological conditions, The industrial structure is still dominated by industry, the technology is relatively backward and the energy efficiency is not high, which is very disadvantageous to the completion of the task of emission reduction in our country. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the current situation of regional carbon emissions and to clarify the influencing factors. Based on the carbon footprint method and TaPio decoupling method, this paper analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions in the northeast cold region from the perspectives of total amount and productivity. The total amount of analysis shows that the carbon footprint of northeast cold region increases gradually. And from the increasing trend in the future, through the carbon footprint density, carbon footprint ecological pressure, carbon footprint output value, carbon footprint intensity and other indicators of the current carbon footprint impact on the ecological environment. The results showed that the CFD indices were all greater than 3 EPICF indices, which indicated that the environmental pressure was high and the future growth trend was higher, while the slow growth of VCF index showed that the CFI index decreased slowly, which indicated that the impact of technology on carbon emissions was not high, and the decrease of unit energy consumption was slow. The results of productivity show that the level of carbon utilization in northeast cold region is not high and is in the stage of weak positive efficiency. In terms of overall level, the carbon productivity of Liaoning Province is the highest, that of Jilin Province is the second, and that of Heilongjiang Province is the lowest. But Jilin Province carbon productivity has a downward trend. The factor decomposition analysis of carbon emissions by LMDI factor decomposition model shows that the economic growth effect and population scale effect are the main driving factors of regional carbon emissions, and the energy intensity effect is the main restraining factor of regional carbon emissions. The contribution direction of industrial structure effect and energy structure effect in Heilongjiang province, Jilin province and Liaoning province is different. The effects of industrial structure on carbon emissions were inhibited in Heilongjiang province, pulled in Jilin province and Liaoning province, pulled by energy structure factors, and inhibited in Jilin province and Liaoning province. The results of decomposition analysis are explained according to the current situation of each province, and the reasons for the differences are clarified. Through the evaluation of the status quo of carbon emissions in the northeast cold region, the factors influencing the formation of the present situation are made clear by the decomposition analysis method and the actual situation in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces. Based on the above analysis, this paper focuses on the adjustment of industrial structure, optimization of energy structure, application of low-carbon technology, enhancement of ecological protection, and overall planning for development. It provides scientific and reasonable support for the successful completion of the task of energy saving and emission reduction in the Northeast Cold region during the 12th Five-Year Plan.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F205
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本文編號：2120994
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